Forward Air Corp. (FWRD)
NASDAQIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$16.93-11.27%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FWRD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -69.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 73.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 11 industry peers
FWRD — Chair transition
Dated 2026-07-10
Executive Chairman — Jerome Lorrain: Mr. Lorrain resigned as the Executive Chairman of the Board, leading to a significant change in leadership.
Why it matters: The October agreement keeps a large share of this customer’s work for two years. Q3 results can show whether that work still brings in revenue.
Watch forQ3 revenue from retained customer services is steady or higher year over year. No major early loss is reported.
Also watch forQ3 results report a sharp drop in revenue from the customer or an early end to retained services.
Why it matters: The deal sets a window for moving some services to other providers. Delays or a wider transfer could change revenue and cash flow.
Watch forThe company reports that the planned service transfer ends by March 2027. No added services move away.
Also watch forThe company reports that the transfer runs past March 2027 or includes more services than planned.
Why it matters: Cash from daily work rose in Q1 but fell below zero in Q2. More positive quarters would show steadier cash flow.
Worry ifOperating cash flow is below zero for two straight quarters after Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifOperating cash flow is positive in both Q3 and Q4 2026.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$207 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $605 loss on $10,000 · 6.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,251 loss on $10,000 · 72.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.