Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
Gap Inc. (GAP)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
$22.41-5.64%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.64 → 2.62 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 11 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for GAP yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash from operations at or above $213 million next quarter | Cash from operations rose to $213 million. | Intact | Cash from operations falls below $213 million next quarter | Cash from operations: $337M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=213 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 28, 2026337,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
GAP is a retail recovery and execution story, rather than a steady compounder. The multi-year view has improved as recent financial performance strengthened and the signal shifted to mildly favorable, but a CEO transition and medium confidence keep the thesis from being settled.
The evidence describes GAP as cheap versus peers, and the valuation tag is justified with low fragility. The expectations gap is negative, so the model suggests expectations sit below its assessment of the business; that reading has medium confidence and should not be treated as certainty.
Near term, recent results show stronger operating income and gross margin, while Gap brand comparable sales grew 10% in both reported quarters. Management is on track with brand reinvigoration and operational rigor, but the CEO transition and a history of recent misses are risks despite a low stated miss probability.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on sustaining brand momentum and operational improvement without reversing the recent guidance increase. Sector conditions also matter: continued strength from TJX, ROST, and BURL would support the broader consumer discretionary backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could remove that support.
For the 1-3 year view, GAP’s improving fundamentals and cheap-versus-peers valuation support an intact thesis, but execution, leadership transition, and sector signals remain important swing factors. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Gap Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=0.17 USD per share. |
| Intact |
| Dividend per share falls below $0.17 next quarter |
Dividend per share: $0.17 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=0.17 USD per share. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 28, 20260.175 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income at or above $445 million next quarter | Gap is improving profit with operating income up to $445 million. | Broken | Operating income falls below $445 million next quarter | Operating income: $676M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=445 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 28, 2026676,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth at or above 4.7% next year | A primary condition in Gap Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=4.7% YoY. | Broken | Revenue growth falls below 4.7% next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.60 → $2.62 · observed estimates
$16.03B → $16.01B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.60 | $16,030,868,084 | 7 / 13 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.60 | $16,030,868,084 | 7 / 13 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.60 | $16,030,868,084 | 7 / 13 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.60 | $16,030,868,084 | 7 / 13 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.60 | $16,030,868,084 | 7 / 13 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.60 | $16,030,868,084 | 7 / 13 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.60 | $16,030,868,084 | 7 / 13 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.60 | $16,023,068,084 | 7 / 13 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.60 | $16,023,068,084 | 7 / 13 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.60 | $16,023,068,084 | 7 / 13 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.60 | $16,023,068,084 | 7 / 13 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.60 | $16,023,068,084 | 7 / 13 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.60 | $16,023,068,084 | 7 / 13 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.60 | $16,023,068,084 | 7 / 13 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.60 | $16,023,068,084 | 7 / 13 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.60 | $16,023,068,084 | 7 / 13 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.60 | $16,023,068,084 | 7 / 13 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.60 | $16,023,068,084 | 7 / 13 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.60 | $16,023,068,084 | 7 / 13 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.65 | $16,000,556,820 | 7 / 17 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.60 | $16,023,068,084 | 7 / 13 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.60 | $16,023,068,084 | 7 / 13 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.60 | $16,023,068,084 | 7 / 13 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.60 | $16,023,068,084 | 7 / 13 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.60 | $16,023,068,084 | 7 / 13 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.60 | $16,023,068,084 | 7 / 13 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.54 | $15,983,375,703 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.54 | $15,983,375,703 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.54 | $15,977,267,970 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.54 | $15,977,267,970 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.54 | $15,977,267,970 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.54 | $15,995,687,970 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.54 | $15,995,687,970 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.54 | $15,995,687,970 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.54 | $15,995,687,970 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.65 | $16,011,856,228 | 7 / 13 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.65 | $16,011,856,228 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.65 | $16,011,856,228 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.65 | $16,011,856,228 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.65 | $16,011,856,228 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.65 | $16,011,856,228 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.65 | $16,008,793,728 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.65 | $16,008,793,728 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.65 | $16,008,793,728 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.65 | $16,008,793,728 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.65 | $16,008,793,728 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.65 | $16,008,793,728 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.64 | $15,997,841,156 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.64 | $15,997,841,156 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.64 | $15,997,841,156 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.64 | $15,997,841,156 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.64 | $15,997,841,156 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.64 | $16,001,038,954 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.64 | $16,001,038,954 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.64 | $16,001,038,954 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.64 | $16,001,038,954 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.64 | $16,001,038,954 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.64 | $16,001,038,954 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.64 | $16,001,038,954 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.64 | $16,001,038,954 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.64 | $16,001,038,954 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.64 | $16,001,038,954 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.64 | $16,001,038,954 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.64 | $16,001,038,954 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.64 | $16,001,038,954 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.64 | $16,001,038,954 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.64 | $16,001,056,601 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.64 | $16,001,056,601 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.64 | $16,001,056,601 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.64 | $16,001,056,601 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.64 | $16,001,056,601 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.64 | $16,001,056,601 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.64 | $16,001,056,601 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.64 | $16,001,056,601 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.64 | $16,001,056,601 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.64 | $16,001,056,601 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.64 | $16,001,056,601 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.64 | $16,001,056,601 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.64 | $16,001,056,601 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.64 | $16,001,056,601 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.64 | $16,001,056,601 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.64 | $16,001,056,601 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.64 | $16,001,056,601 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.64 | $16,001,056,601 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.64 | $16,001,056,601 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.64 | $15,984,209,012 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.64 | $15,984,209,012 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.64 | $15,984,209,012 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.62 | $15,988,949,339 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.62 | $15,988,949,339 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.63 | $16,015,452,154 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.63 | $16,015,452,154 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.63 | $16,015,452,154 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.63 | $16,015,452,154 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.63 | $16,015,452,154 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.62 | $16,014,798,277 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.62 | $16,014,798,277 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.62 | $16,014,798,277 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.62 | $16,014,798,277 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.62 | $16,014,798,277 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.62 | $16,014,798,277 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.62 | $16,014,798,277 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.62 | $16,014,798,277 | 11 / 15 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 14 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 19, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.