Gap Inc. (GAP)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
$23.75+8.00%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GAP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -14.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 6.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 20.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 3 industry peers
GAP — CEO transition
Dated 2026-08-27
CEO — Horacio “Haio” Barbeito: The CEO of a major division (Old Navy) is stepping down and receiving severance, indicating a genuine executive departure rather than a routine succession or promotion.
Why it matters: Gap says the added tariff relief is about $15 million and lands mainly in Q4. Less relief could leave less room to protect margins.
Worry ifGap reports about $15 million in net tariff relief in Q4, with the benefit mainly in that quarter.
Less concerning ifGap reports less than $15 million of net relief, or says the Q4 benefit did not occur.
Why it matters: Gap expects Q3 sales growth of 1.5% to 2.5%. A result below that range would weaken its sales outlook.
Worry ifOn November 19, Q3 net sales grow less than 1.5% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 net sales grow 1.5% to 2.5% year over year, or more.
Why it matters: Athleta comps fell 11% in Q1 and 12% in Q2. A smaller decline would show the brand's turnaround is gaining ground.
Supportive ifAthleta's next reported drop in comparable sales is less than 12%.
Worry ifAthleta's next reported drop in comparable sales is 12% or more.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$146 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $373 loss on $10,000 · 3.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,657 loss on $10,000 · 36.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.