Gap Inc. (GAP)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$22.43+0.49%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GAP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -19.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 24.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 16 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
GAP — CEO transition
Dated 2026-08-27
CEO — Horacio “Haio” Barbeito: The CEO of a major division (Old Navy) is stepping down and receiving severance, indicating a genuine executive departure rather than a routine succession or promotion.
Why it matters: This may show a slowdown in consumer demand. It could hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifQ2 sales growth was below 1%.
Less concerning ifQ2 sales growth was above 1%.
Why it matters: New buybacks show trust in the company's finances and returning cash.
Supportive ifA new buyback plan over $200 million is announced.
Worry ifNo new share repurchase program announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if operating income is increasing as planned. This is key for future growth.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings show operating income growth of more than 10% year over year.
Worry ifOperating income declines or stays flat year over year.
Why it matters: Keeping online sales steady or growing is important. It helps overall revenue in a competitive market.
Supportive ifOnline sales growth reported at 0% or positive year over year.
Worry ifOnline sales decline reported worse than -2% year over year.
Why it matters: Dividends show a company is doing well. They also help keep investors confident.
Supportive ifA dividend payment that is the same as or more than before.
Worry ifA dividend cut or stop is announced.
Why it matters: A bigger decline would mean higher cost pressures. This could hurt profits.
Worry ifGross margin declines more than 200 basis points year over year.
Less concerning ifGross margin declines less than 200 basis points year over year.
Why it matters: Confirming the dividend shows a commitment to shareholders. It means returning value to them.
Supportive ifDividend payment confirmed at $0.175 per share.
Worry ifDividend payment was not confirmed or was reduced.
Why it matters: Improving cash flow shows the company is managing its finances well. This supports future investments.
Supportive ifCash from operations increases by more than 15% compared to Q1.
Worry ifCash from operations decreases or grows less than 5% compared to Q1.
Why it matters: Online sales are growing. This shows that e-commerce demand is recovering. This matters for total sales.
Supportive ifOnline sales growth reported as positive year over year.
Worry ifOnline sales decline reported again year over year.
Why it matters: Strong growth in operating income shows good cost control and efficiency.
Supportive ifOperating income growth was over 10% compared to last year.
Worry ifOperating income growth was less than 5% compared to last year.
Why it matters: A drop in gross margin may signal rising costs or pricing pressure.
Worry ifGross margin reported below 39% for Q2.
Less concerning ifGross margin reported at 39% or higher for Q2.
Why it matters: Operating margin shows how well a company makes money. A drop means cost problems.
Worry ifThe operating margin was less than 7.3%.
Less concerning ifOperating margin was at or above 7.3%.
Why it matters: An increase would show confidence in cash flow and commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a dividend increase beyond $0.175 per share.
Worry ifAnnouncement of a dividend at or below $0.175 per share.
Why it matters: This would indicate challenges in managing costs and could impact future guidance.
Worry ifOperating income was below $400 million for Q2.
Less concerning ifOperating income was above $400 million for Q2.
Why it matters: Old Navy's performance has been weak. Improvement signals the brand's turnaround efforts are working.
Supportive ifOld Navy comparable sales turn positive or improve to flat or better in Q3.
Worry ifOld Navy's sales are still down or getting worse in Q3.
Why it matters: A strong gross margin shows good cost control and pricing ability.
Supportive ifGross margin in Q3 remains above 52%.
Worry ifGross margin in Q3 drops below 52%.
Why it matters: More share buybacks mean management trusts the company's future. They want to return money.
Supportive ifShare repurchases in Q3 exceed $200 million.
Worry ifShare repurchases in Q3 are below $200 million.
Why it matters: Changes in tariffs can greatly impact costs and profits. Keeping track helps understand financial health.
Watch forQ3 results show a net benefit of at least $15 million from tariff adjustments.
Also watch forQ3 results do not reflect any net benefit from tariff adjustments.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$153 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $385 loss on $10,000 · 3.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,657 loss on $10,000 · 36.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.