Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
Genesco, Inc. (GCO)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
$36.97-5.93%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.95 → 2.95 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for GCO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Journeys segment operating income improves to $51.3M by 2026-Q4 | A primary condition in Genesco, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $51.3M operating income. | Improving | operating income falls below $8.6M in any quarter after 2026-Q4 | Operating income: $3.617M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $51.3M operating income. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2027-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Sep 10, 20263,617,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Dec 3, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a higher-risk operating improvement story, not a proven durable compounder: earnings quality and the value factor are both marked loss-making. The thesis has improved recently, but remains under watch because financial performance is still below its industry cohort.
GCO trades at a 1.63 times premium versus peers, with a modest expectations gap of 0.3 and no flagged valuation-fragility concerns. The evidence points to a valuation that may depend on a re-rating, but it does not establish that the premium is justified while the company remains loss-making.
Near term, recent results show progress: Journeys comparable sales grew, Schuh’s adjusted gross margin improved, and management reported initial cost savings progress. Momentum improved and the latest earnings event was positive, though CEO and president transitions add execution uncertainty; the estimated near-term miss probability is 26%, with a quiet watch tier.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis depends on sustained progress in Journeys profitability, Schuh margins, and the cost savings plan through Fiscal 2029. A guidance cut after the recent increase would weaken management credibility, while continued strength or weakness at TJX, ROST, and BURL could shape the sector backdrop.
The multi-year view is a watch-stage improvement story: operating progress is visible, but losses, a peer valuation premium, and leadership transitions leave the thesis unproven. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Genesco’s GAAP operating income for the second quarter was $3.6 million, or 0.7% of sales this year, including tariff refunds, compared with an operating loss of $14.4 million, or 2.6% of sales in the second quarter last year.” “Fiscal 2027 Outlook Based on better than expected second quarter results including stronger gross margins and better expense management, partially offset by lower sales assumptions for Schuh in the back half, the Company is raising its adjusted diluted earnings per share outlook for Fiscal 2027.”
Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026Journeys revenue grows to $799.9M by 2026-Q4 | A primary condition in Genesco, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $799.9M revenue. | Under Pressure | revenue falls below $616.2M in any quarter after 2026-Q4 | Revenue: $529.858M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $799.9M revenue. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2027-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Sep 10, 2026529,858,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Genesco’s GAAP operating income for the second quarter was $3.6 million, or 0.7% of sales this year, including tariff refunds, compared with an operating loss of $14.4 million, or 2.6% of sales in the second quarter last year.” “Fiscal 2027 Outlook Based on better than expected second quarter results including stronger gross margins and better expense management, partially offset by lower sales assumptions for Schuh in the back half, the Company is raising its adjusted diluted earnings per share outlook for Fiscal 2027.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Management stabilizes with new CFO and fewer departures | New CFO hire may stabilize management. | Improving | further key executive departures or activist disruptions | Qualitative: New CFO hired (Jun 2026), CAO promoted (May 2026), SVP retiring (Aug 2026); no activist disruption New CFO hired, CAO promoted, SVP retiring with plan; no activist disruptions. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Schuh gross profit improves to $367.1M by 2026-Q4 | Schuh gross profit grew from $289M to $367M. | Improving | gross profit falls below $288.6M in any quarter after 2026-Q4 | Gross profit: $272.117M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $367.1M gross profit. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2027-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Sep 10, 2026272,117,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Adjusted gross margin for the second quarter this year of 47.2% increased 140 basis points as a percentage of sales compared to 45.8% last year.” “The increase as a percentage of sales compared to Fiscal 2026 is due primarily to less promotional activity and higher full-price selling at Schuh, favorable changes in sales mix, license exit benefit and pricing and tariff mitigation actions across our branded businesses.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.86 → $2.95 · observed estimates
$2.48B → $2.44B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.86 | $2,484,495,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.86 | $2,484,495,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.86 | $2,484,495,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.86 | $2,484,495,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.86 | $2,484,495,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.86 | $2,484,495,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.86 | $2,484,495,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.86 | $2,484,495,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.86 | $2,484,495,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.86 | $2,484,495,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.86 | $2,484,495,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.86 | $2,484,495,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.86 | $2,484,495,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.86 | $2,484,495,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.86 | $2,484,495,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.86 | $2,484,495,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.86 | $2,484,495,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.86 | $2,484,495,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.86 | $2,484,495,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.86 | $2,484,545,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.86 | $2,484,495,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.86 | $2,484,495,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.86 | $2,484,495,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.86 | $2,484,495,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.86 | $2,484,495,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.86 | $2,484,495,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.86 | $2,484,495,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.86 | $2,484,495,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.86 | $2,484,495,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.86 | $2,484,495,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.86 | $2,484,495,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.86 | $2,484,495,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.86 | $2,484,495,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.86 | $2,484,495,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.86 | $2,484,495,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.87 | $2,484,098,550 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.87 | $2,486,023,550 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.87 | $2,486,023,550 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.87 | $2,486,023,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.87 | $2,486,023,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.87 | $2,486,023,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.96 | $2,446,983,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.95 | $2,440,858,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.95 | $2,440,858,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.95 | $2,440,858,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.95 | $2,440,858,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.95 | $2,440,858,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.95 | $2,440,858,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.95 | $2,440,858,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.95 | $2,440,858,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.95 | $2,440,858,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.95 | $2,440,858,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.95 | $2,440,858,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.95 | $2,440,858,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.95 | $2,440,858,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.95 | $2,440,858,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.95 | $2,440,858,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.95 | $2,440,858,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.95 | $2,440,858,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.95 | $2,440,858,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.95 | $2,440,858,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.95 | $2,440,858,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.95 | $2,440,858,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.95 | $2,440,858,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.95 | $2,440,858,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.95 | $2,440,858,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.95 | $2,440,858,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.95 | $2,440,858,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.95 | $2,440,858,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.95 | $2,440,858,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.95 | $2,440,858,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.95 | $2,440,858,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.95 | $2,440,858,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.95 | $2,440,858,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.95 | $2,440,858,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.95 | $2,440,858,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.95 | $2,440,858,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.95 | $2,440,858,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.95 | $2,440,858,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.95 | $2,440,858,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.95 | $2,440,858,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.95 | $2,440,858,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.95 | $2,440,858,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.95 | $2,440,858,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.95 | $2,440,858,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.95 | $2,440,858,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.95 | $2,440,858,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.95 | $2,440,858,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.95 | $2,440,858,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.95 | $2,440,858,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.95 | $2,440,858,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.95 | $2,440,858,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.95 | $2,440,858,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.95 | $2,440,858,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.95 | $2,440,858,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.95 | $2,440,858,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.95 | $2,440,858,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.95 | $2,440,858,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.95 | $2,440,858,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.95 | $2,440,858,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.95 | $2,440,858,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.95 | $2,440,858,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.95 | $2,440,858,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-05 | $2.95 | $2,440,858,750 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.