Genesco, Inc. (GCO)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$35.81+3.98%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GCO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -24.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -0.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 24.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 16 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
GCO — President transition
Dated 2026-08-06
Senior Vice President, Chief Strategy and Digital Officer — Parag D. Desai: Mr. Desai is transitioning to part-time status and will retire from the company with a structured transition plan.
Why it matters: Schuh has higher margins. This shows success in cutting promotions. It helps make more money.
Supportive ifSchuh's gross margin exceeds 47% in the next reporting period.
Worry ifSchuh's gross margin stays at or below 47%.
Why it matters: A new CFO can change financial direction. This could affect cost management and growth strategies.
Watch forCFO Jonathan Collins talks about new financial plans in a public statement.
Also watch forCFO Jonathan Collins does not share new plans or strategies.
Why it matters: Receiving these refunds would provide a financial boost and improve cash flow.
Supportive ifConfirmation of tariff refunds in the range of $23 to $25 million.
Worry ifNo new confirmations or lower refund amounts have been reported.
Why it matters: Consumer spending trends affect Genesco's sales. Positive trends can boost revenue, while negative trends can hurt it.
Watch forConsumer spending growth turns positive in the next quarter.
Also watch forConsumer spending growth remains negative in the next quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$241 on $10,000 · ±2.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $471 loss on $10,000 · 4.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,877 loss on $10,000 · 38.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Management's focus on full price sales affects overall profit. Changes may show new strategies.
Watch forManagement says full price sales will rise in the next earnings call.
Also watch forManagement notes a drop in full price sales or a return to discounts.
Why it matters: If Journeys makes more money, it helps Genesco grow. This shows the company controls costs well.
Supportive ifJourneys reports a profit margin improvement of at least 2% in the next quarter.
Worry ifJourneys' profit margins decline or remain flat compared to the previous quarter.
Why it matters: Growth in consumer spending can show a recovery. This may help Genesco's sales.
Supportive ifWhen sector revenue growth is positive, it shows a recovery phase.
Worry ifIf sector revenue growth is negative, it means the decline is still happening.
Why it matters: Full price sales growth shows that Genesco is selling products at higher prices. This can lead to better profits.
Supportive ifFull price sales increase by at least 5% in the next quarter.
Worry ifFull price sales growth is less than 0% in the next quarter.
Why it matters: A better sales mix will indicate progress on management's focus for profitability. This is a key growth area.
Watch forManagement says there will be a big rise in full price sales next quarter.
Also watch forManagement notes a decline in full price sales mix in the next quarter.
Why it matters: The cost savings program is key for making more money. Progress shows good cost control.
Watch forCompany reports $10 million in cost savings achieved by Q3.
Also watch forCompany reports no progress on the cost savings program by Q3.
Why it matters: Faster sales at Journeys shows that management is doing a good job.
Supportive ifJourneys comparable sales grow more than 5% in Q3.
Worry ifJourneys comparable sales decline or grow less than 2% in Q3.
Why it matters: A continued decline in Schuh sales could signal ongoing issues with the brand's strategy.
Worry ifSchuh comparable sales decline more than 9% in Q3.
Less concerning ifSchuh comparable sales stabilize or grow year over year.
Why it matters: Saving costs could help increase profits.
Supportive ifManagement reports achieving at least $10 million in cost savings by Q3.
Worry ifCost savings reported below $10 million by Q3.