Genesco, Inc. (GCO)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
$36.97-5.93%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GCO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 27.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 0.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 27.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 4 industry peers
GCO — President transition
Dated 2026-08-06
Senior Vice President, Chief Strategy and Digital Officer — Parag D. Desai: Mr. Desai is transitioning to part-time status and will retire from the company with a structured transition plan.
Why it matters: Genesco cut its full-year comp view from growth of 1% to 2% to flat. Another weak quarter would add pressure to its sales outlook.
Worry ifQ3 total comparable sales are down from a year ago, after falling 1% in Q2.
Less concerning ifQ3 total comparable sales are flat or positive year over year.
Why it matters: Journeys had positive comps for eight straight quarters. It is a key part of management's growth plan.
Supportive ifIn the Dec. 3 report, Journeys comparable sales are positive year over year, following 2% growth in Q2.
Worry ifIn the Dec. 3 report, Journeys comparable sales are flat or negative year over year.
Why it matters: Schuh comps fell 9% in Q2 as the company cut discounts. A smaller drop with better margins would show that this trade-off is working.
Watch forSchuh comparable sales fall less than 9% year over year, while adjusted gross margin stays above 45.8%.
Also watch forSchuh comparable sales fall 9% or more year over year, and adjusted gross margin is at or below 45.8%.
Why it matters: The program aims to save $40 million to $50 million by fiscal 2029. Savings can help pay for growth plans and lift margins.
Supportive ifA company update puts savings at $20 million or more for fiscal 2027, in line with its stated goal of up to $20 million.
Worry ifA company update puts fiscal 2027 savings below $20 million, or cuts the $40 million to $50 million goal.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$152 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $463 loss on $10,000 · 4.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,877 loss on $10,000 · 38.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Management raised its full-year adjusted EPS outlook to the high end of $2.00 to $2.40. The next report will show whether earnings stay on track.
Supportive ifThe Dec. 3 report keeps adjusted EPS guidance at the high end of $2.00 to $2.40 or raises it.
Worry ifThe Dec. 3 report lowers adjusted EPS guidance below $2.00 to $2.40.