Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Gevo, Inc. (GEVO)
NASDAQMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.22-4.69%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for GEVO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve $40M Adjusted EBITDA run-rate by end 2026 | Gevo aims to reach $40 million adjusted EBITDA run-rate by end of 2026. | Improving | Adjusted EBITDA run-rate falls below $20M by end 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 10, 2026
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk, loss-making clean-energy business with potential support from a favorable sector backdrop. Its multi-year view is in a watch state: recent results and guidance improved, but delivery against the full-year outlook and production plans is not yet established.
The valuation is about 21% above peers, and the expectations gap is modest, with the evidence describing pricing as justified and fragility as low. That suggests the valuation and expectations are broadly aligned, though GEVO remains loss-making and the valuation model has medium confidence.
Near-term results have improved: quarterly Adjusted EBITDA rose from $9 million to $11 million, and management raised its 2026 outlook to more than $60 million. Credit sales closed after Q2 show progress toward the 2026 Section 45Z goal, but completion is not established; planned debottlenecking gains also remain unproven, and recent performance is weak versus its industry cohort.
The main swing factor is whether GEVO delivers its raised outlook and converts carbon-credit sales and operating plans into sustained results. A guidance reversal would damage credibility, while continued strength among materials-sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop; weaker results from those peers could remove that support.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, GEVO’s long-term thesis rests on execution in carbon credits and production, against a favorable sector backdrop but with high risk and weak relative performance. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company targets neutral to positive cash flow from operations in 2026. |
| Improving |
| Operating cash flow remains negative beyond -$10M in 2026 |
Cash from operations: $-8.275M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=0 USD_MILLIONS. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Aug 6, 2026-8,275,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain revenue growth near analyst consensus of 9% in next year | A supporting condition in Gevo, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=8.9% YoY. | Improving | Revenue growth falls below 5% YoY next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.06 → $-0.00 · observed estimates
$0.22B → $0.21B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.06 | $216,833,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.06 | $216,833,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.08 | $204,545,320 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.06 | $212,787,769 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.06 | $212,787,769 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.08 | $204,545,320 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.08 | $204,545,320 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.08 | $204,545,320 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.06 | $212,787,769 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.08 | $204,545,320 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.08 | $204,545,320 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.08 | $204,545,320 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.08 | $204,545,320 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.06 | $212,787,769 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.06 | $212,787,769 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.08 | $204,545,320 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.08 | $204,545,320 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.08 | $204,545,320 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.08 | $204,981,720 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.08 | $204,981,720 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.06 | $212,787,769 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.06 | $212,787,769 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.06 | $212,787,769 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.06 | $212,787,769 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.06 | $212,787,769 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.06 | $212,787,769 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.00 | $207,508,602 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.00 | $207,508,602 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.00 | $207,508,602 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.00 | $207,508,602 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.00 | $207,508,602 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.00 | $207,508,602 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.00 | $207,508,602 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.00 | $207,508,602 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.00 | $207,508,602 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.00 | $207,508,602 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.01 | $210,498,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.01 | $210,498,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.01 | $210,498,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.01 | $210,498,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.01 | $210,498,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.01 | $210,498,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.01 | $210,498,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.01 | $210,498,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.01 | $210,498,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.01 | $210,498,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.01 | $210,498,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.01 | $210,498,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.01 | $210,498,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.01 | $210,498,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.01 | $210,498,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.01 | $210,498,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.01 | $210,498,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.01 | $210,498,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.01 | $210,498,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.01 | $210,498,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.00 | $207,508,602 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.00 | $207,508,602 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.00 | $207,508,602 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.00 | $207,508,602 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.00 | $207,508,602 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.00 | $207,508,602 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.00 | $207,508,602 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.00 | $207,508,602 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.00 | $207,508,602 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.00 | $207,508,602 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.00 | $207,508,602 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.00 | $207,508,602 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.00 | $207,508,602 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.00 | $207,508,602 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.00 | $207,508,602 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.00 | $207,508,602 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.00 | $207,508,602 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.00 | $207,508,602 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.00 | $207,508,602 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.00 | $207,508,602 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.00 | $207,508,602 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.00 | $207,512,269 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.00 | $207,512,269 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.00 | $207,512,269 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.00 | $207,512,269 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.00 | $207,512,269 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.00 | $207,512,269 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.00 | $207,512,269 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.00 | $207,512,269 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.00 | $207,512,269 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.00 | $207,512,269 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.00 | $207,512,269 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.00 | $208,178,936 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.00 | $208,178,936 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.00 | $208,178,936 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.00 | $208,178,936 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.00 | $208,178,936 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.00 | $208,178,936 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.00 | $208,178,936 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.00 | $208,178,936 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.00 | $208,178,936 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.00 | $208,178,936 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.00 | $208,178,936 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.00 | $208,178,936 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.00 | $208,178,936 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.00 | $208,178,936 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.00 | $208,178,936 | 3 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.