Gevo, Inc. (GEVO)
NASDAQMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$1.640.00%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GEVO
How strong the business is — where it ranks within its sector on capital efficiency and cash generation, and how well management has been executing.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Deliver full-year 2026 non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA exceeding $60 million, more than doubling prior target of $30 million.
Stated as a priority in 3 quarters including 2026-Q1 and 2026-Q2. Management raised the full-year 2026 non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA outlook from $30 million to more than $60 million by 2026-Q2. This doubling of the target reflects improved operational results and carbon business revenue. The trajectory shows delivering progress with increased guidance and operational execution.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated weak grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=1946).
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
“Gevo raised full-year 2026 non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA outlook to more than $60 million, more than double the prior target of $30 million.”
“We target approximately $30 million of Adjusted EBITDA in 2026, up from $17 million in 2025.”
“We continue to progress towards a run-rate annualized $40 million of Adjusted EBITDA and reiterate our target of achieving that by year end.”
Achieve neutral to positive operating cash flow for the full year 2026 through improved operations and monetization of tax credits.
Stated in 3 quarters including 2026-Q1 and 2026-Q2. Operating cash flow improved from -$21.1 million in 2026-Q1 to -$8.3 million in 2026-Q2. Management targets neutral to positive cash flow for full year 2026, showing progress but not yet positive cash flow. Trajectory is improving but not yet delivering neutral or positive cash flow.
“The Company expects substantial operating cash flow in Q3 and Q4 2026 supported by improved EBITDA and tax credit monetizations.”
“We are now targeting neutral to positive cash flow from operations for 2026.”
“Cash from operating activities was negative but improving quarter over quarter.”
Generate over $70 million in monetization of Section 45Z tax credits in 2026 from low-carbon ethanol and RNG production improvements.
Stated in 2 quarters including 2026-Q2. Management targets over $70 million in Section 45Z tax credit monetization in 2026, up from prior estimates. This is supported by continued low-carbon ethanol and RNG production. The trajectory is on track with increased guidance and expected cash proceeds in second half 2026.
“Targeting monetization of more than $70 million in Section 45Z tax credits during 2026.”
“Expecting $30 million of Non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA in 2026 including tax credit monetizations.”
Advance expansion plans to double Gevo North Dakota's low-carbon ethanol production capacity to approximately 150 million gallons per year by 2028.
Stated in 3 quarters including 2026-Q1 and 2026-Q2. Management is advancing expansion plans to double Gevo North Dakota capacity to about 150 million gallons per year by 2028. Preliminary agreements and engineering are underway. The trajectory is delivering steady progress toward the 2028 target.
“Continuing progress on expansion of Gevo North Dakota to produce approximately 150 million gallons per year of low-carbon ethanol.”
“Executing preliminary agreement for co-investment to enable expansion to double capacity at Gevo North Dakota.”
“Planning and design phase underway for expansion project targeting 2028 startup.”
Execute debottlenecking at Gevo North Dakota to increase low-carbon ethanol, coproducts, and carbon capture volumes by approximately 10-15% starting in 2027.
Stated in 3 quarters including 2026-Q1 and 2026-Q2. Management reports debottlenecking at Gevo North Dakota is on track to increase low-carbon ethanol and associated volumes by 10-15% starting in 2027. Operational progress includes completed equipment tie-ins. The trajectory is delivering steady progress toward the growth target.
“Debottlenecking activities expected to deliver increased low-carbon ethanol and incentives by approximately 10-15% starting in 2027.”
“Progressed debottlenecking project with equipment tie-ins during planned shutdown, targeting 75 million gallons annual capacity starting next year.”
“Debottlenecking project on track and on budget to deliver expected growth in production and carbon capture.”
Over the trailing year it converted 1.16x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates (low R² over the window).
19 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=976).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-09-04.