Gevo, Inc. (GEVO)
NASDAQMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.28+7.56%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GEVO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 17.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 14.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 2.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 26 industry peers
GEVO — director transition
Dated 2026-10-28
Director — K’Lynne Johnson: The filing discloses the appointment of a new independent director to the Board, which is a routine governance event and not an executive departure.
Why it matters: Gevo said it was working to fill the remaining SAF contracts needed for a final investment decision. The project also needs major funding.
Supportive ifGevo announces enough signed SAF contracts to reach FID and confirms the project has funding.
Worry ifGevo reports that it lacks enough signed SAF contracts, delays FID, or pauses Project Northstar.
Why it matters: Gevo targets more than $70 million from these tax credits in 2026. It said $20 million in sales had closed after Q2, with $50 million still targeted by year end.
Supportive ifGevo reports at least $50 million in further 45Z credit sales and cash proceeds by year end.
Worry ifGevo reports less than $50 million in further 45Z credit sales by year end, or says the remaining sales are delayed.
Why it matters: Gevo said this new pathway opens a market for its low-carbon ethanol. Q3 results are set to show whether those sales add revenue.
Supportive ifQ3 results report sales under the new Canada CFR pathway.
Worry ifQ3 results report no Canada CFR pathway sales, or say the sales were delayed.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$208 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $606 loss on $10,000 · 6.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,000 loss on $10,000 · 60.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.