Gevo, Inc. (GEVO)
NASDAQMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$1.640.00%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GEVO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 6.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 13.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 7.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 41 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
GEVO — earnings in line
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2026, Gevo, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing the Company’s financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of this press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this
Why it matters: The company aims for neutral to positive cash flow. Progress here is crucial for financial health.
Supportive ifCash from operations is positive in Q2 2026. This is a good sign.
Worry ifCash from operating activities is still negative in Q2 2026. This shows ongoing issues.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow is key for keeping operations running and funding growth.
Supportive ifGevo reports positive operating cash flow for Q3 or Q4 2026.
Worry ifGevo continues to report negative operating cash flow in Q3 or Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company can recover from the recent earnings miss.
Watch forQ2 earnings report shows revenue growth compared to Q1.
Also watch forQ2 earnings report shows a decline in revenue compared to Q1.
Why it matters: A big change in management score may show a better company direction or plan.
Supportive ifManagement score increases by more than 5 points in the next earnings report.
Worry ifManagement score decreases or stays the same in the next earnings report.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$249 on $10,000 · ±2.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $606 loss on $10,000 · 6.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,955 loss on $10,000 · 49.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow is key for the company's financial stability. It shows better efficiency.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations reports a positive figure for the next quarter.
Worry ifCash flow from operations is still negative and getting worse compared to past quarters.
Why it matters: Financing is important to double production capacity. This will affect future revenue and growth.
Supportive ifFinancing for the expansion project is completed in the second half of 2026.
Worry ifNo financing secured for the expansion project by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: The materials sector is in decline. Positive revenue growth could signal a sector recovery.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth is positive. This shows a change in the lifecycle phase.
Worry ifSector revenue growth is still negative. This confirms ongoing decline.
Why it matters: Making money from these credits could improve cash flow and help meet financial goals.
Supportive ifGevo plans to monetize at least $20 million in Section 45Z tax credits by 2026.
Worry ifGevo fails to monetize at least $10 million in Section 45Z tax credits by year-end 2026.
Why it matters: Making money from these credits is key for revenue. It shows the company can use tax benefits.
Supportive ifManagement reports they have made over $70 million from Section 45Z tax credits.
Worry ifManagement says their efforts to make money from credits are not working well.
Why it matters: More revenue from this pathway could greatly help Gevo's finances and support growth.
Supportive ifIn Q3, revenue from the Canada Clean Fuel Regulation pathway was over $10 million.
Worry ifQ3 revenue from the Canada Clean Fuel Regulation pathway is less than $5 million.