Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
$7.11 → $7.11 · observed estimates
Griffon Corporation (GFF)
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$102.40-4.76%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
7.11 → 7.11 EPS · FY ending Sep 30, 2028 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for GFF yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve $458 million adjusted EBITDA in fiscal 2026 | Adjusted EBITDA target is $458 million for 2026. | Intact | adjusted EBITDA falls below $420 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
$7.11 → $7.11 · observed estimates
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 18, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on strategic growth and operational efficiency. The current thesis state is intact, but confidence has shifted to medium due to mixed recent performance and sector challenges.
The market appears to price GFF at a premium compared to peers, suggesting that expectations for future performance may be high. There is an expectations gap indicating that the market might be anticipating stronger results than what has been delivered recently.
Fundamentals may show variability as management works towards its revenue and cash flow goals. Recent results have been mixed, and while free cash flow has generally exceeded net income, the overall financial performance is neutral, reflecting ongoing strategic changes.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers and GFF's ability to meet its revenue and cash flow targets. Any changes in guidance or performance from key industry players could significantly impact GFF's trajectory.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, GFF's performance will depend on management's execution and external sector conditions. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Free cash flow beats net income with $100.7 million in six months. |
| Improving |
| free cash flow falls below net income in FY26 |
Free cash flow: $114.419M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: free cash flow > net income. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 2026114,419,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve $1.8 billion revenue in fiscal 2026 | Griffon aims for $1.8 billion revenue in fiscal 2026. | Intact | revenue falls below $1.6 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $481.37M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.8 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 2026481,370,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Griffon expects fiscal 2026 revenue from continuing operations to be $1.8 billion.” “Adjusted EBITDA, presented to reflect Griffon's new reporting structure, is expected to be $458 million, excluding certain charges that affect comparability.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.98B → $1.98B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | $7.11 | $1,980,420,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $7.11 | $1,980,420,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $7.11 | $1,980,420,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $7.11 | $1,980,420,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $7.11 | $1,980,420,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $7.11 | $1,980,420,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $7.11 | $1,980,420,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $7.11 | $1,980,420,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $7.11 | $1,980,420,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $7.11 | $1,980,420,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $7.11 | $1,980,420,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $7.11 | $1,980,420,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $7.11 | $1,980,420,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $7.11 | $1,980,420,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $7.11 | $1,980,420,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $7.11 | $1,980,420,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $7.11 | $1,980,420,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $7.11 | $1,980,420,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $7.11 | $1,980,420,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $7.11 | $1,980,420,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $7.11 | $1,980,420,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $7.11 | $1,980,420,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $7.11 | $1,980,420,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $7.11 | $1,980,420,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $7.11 | $1,980,420,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $7.11 | $1,980,420,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $7.11 | $1,980,420,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $7.11 | $1,980,420,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $7.11 | $1,980,420,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $7.11 | $1,980,420,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $7.11 | $1,980,420,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $7.11 | $1,980,420,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $7.11 | $1,980,420,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $7.11 | $1,980,420,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $7.11 | $1,980,420,000 | 4 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.