Griffon Corporation (GFF)
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$99.68+1.97%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
Griffon aims for $1.8 billion revenue in fiscal 2026. Free cash flow beats net income with $100.7 million in six months. Adjusted EBITDA target is $458 million for 2026. The joint venture deal supports revenue growth.
Revenue fell 1% year over year in Q2 2026. Adjusted EBITDA dropped to $97.8 million in Q2. Analysts expect revenue to shrink about 22% next year.
Price is about 22% above our fair value near $76. Analysts expect revenue to fall about 22%, but we see better growth.
Breaks if: adjusted EBITDA falls below $420 million in FY26
Breaks if: free cash flow falls below net income in FY26
Generate free cash flow from continuing operations exceeding net income, including disciplined capital expenditures of $50 million.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Free cash flow from continuing operations was $99.6M in 2026-Q1 and $11.3M in 2026-Q2, exceeding net income of $64.4M and $46.9M respectively. Capital expenditures are guided at $50 million for fiscal 2026. The trajectory shows management reiterating the goal, with free cash flow generally exceeding net income, indicating delivery on this priority.
“Free cash flow from continuing operations, including capital expenditures of $50 million, is expected to exceed net income”
“Free cash flow from continuing operations, including capital expenditures of $50 million, is expected to exceed net income”
“Free cash flow from continuing operations, including capital expenditures of $50 million, is expected to exceed net income”
Breaks if: revenue falls below $1.6 billion in FY26
Maintain fiscal 2026 revenue target of $1.8 billion from continuing operations after strategic divestitures and joint ventures.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Griffon maintained its fiscal 2026 revenue guidance at $1.8 billion from continuing operations across 2026-Q1 to 2026-Q3. Quarterly revenues showed variability: $649.1M in Q1, $421.9M in Q2, and $481.4M in Q3, reflecting ongoing strategic divestitures. The trajectory is consistent with management's stated target but reflects the impact of discontinued operations and restructuring.
“Griffon expects fiscal 2026 revenue from continuing operations to be $1.8 billion”
“Griffon expects fiscal 2026 revenue from continuing operations to be $1.8 billion.”
“Griffon now expects fiscal 2026 revenue from continuing operations to be $1.8 billion”
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story with a focus on achieving revenue and cash flow targets. The current thesis state is cautious, given mixed recent performance and sector challenges.
The market appears to have priced in a level of fragility, as the valuation is considered expensive compared to peers. There is a notable expectations gap, suggesting that investors may anticipate better performance than what has been delivered recently.
Fundamentals are likely to remain mixed in the near term, as management continues to pursue revenue and cash flow goals amid sector headwinds. Recent financial performance has shown variability, reflecting ongoing strategic changes.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to meet revenue and cash flow targets while navigating sector dynamics. Key forward scenarios include the performance of sector bellwethers and the potential impact of any guidance cuts.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, GFF's performance will depend on its execution of strategic priorities and external sector conditions. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this improvement. The company is maintaining balanced capital allocation with share repurchases and debt reduction. There are no new threats to the thesis. Overall, the positive trend in earnings estimates adds to the favorable outlook.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.