Griffon Corporation (GFF)
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$99.68+1.97%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GFF
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 18.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| -24.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 42.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 26 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
GFF — debt issuance
Dated 2026-08-19
Other Events On August 18, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing the closing of the Notes Offering and its entry into the Amended and Restated Credit Agreement. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: This shows strong cash flow and good capital management. Both are key for growth.
Supportive ifFree cash flow from continuing operations is higher than net income for two quarters.
Worry ifFree cash flow falls below net income for two consecutive quarters.
Why it matters: Selling U.K. assets will show how these sales affect overall performance.
Worry ifLiquidation of AMES U.K. assets is complete with few losses reported.
Less concerning ifThere are big losses or delays in the selling process.
Why it matters: This joint venture is important for Griffon's plan. It could help them make more money.
Supportive ifThe joint venture with ONCAP is finalized and operational by the end of June 2026.
Worry ifThe joint venture is delayed or faces significant hurdles beyond June 2026.
Why it matters: This trend shows strong cash flow and smart use of money.
Supportive ifFree cash flow reported above net income for the fiscal year.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported below net income for the fiscal year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$163 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $300 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,785 loss on $10,000 · 27.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this revenue shows Griffon is on track for its $1.8 billion target for fiscal 2026.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue from continuing operations is $481 million or more.
Worry ifQ3 revenue from continuing operations is less than $481 million.
Why it matters: If industrial sector revenue growth speeds up, it may benefit Griffon. This could signal a better environment for sales.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth rises above 10% year over year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth stays below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Meeting this target shows good management and strong finances.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA is $458 million or more for fiscal 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA is less than $458 million for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Achieving this revenue target confirms Griffon's growth strategy is on track. It reflects demand in both residential and commercial markets.
Supportive ifQ4 revenue from continuing operations is $1.8 billion or more.
Worry ifQ4 revenue is less than $1.7 billion. This shows problems in meeting growth goals.
Why it matters: This shows Griffon is making cash well. It helps its spending plans and shows financial health.
Supportive ifFree cash flow from continuing operations exceeds net income for Q4.
Worry ifFree cash flow falls below net income for Q4, raising concerns about cash generation.
Why it matters: Griffon aims for $1.8 billion in revenue. Confirmation shows they are on track.
Supportive ifGriffon confirms fiscal 2026 revenue guidance of $1.8 billion in the next earnings call.
Worry ifGuidance is lowered below $1.8 billion in the next earnings call.
Why it matters: Finishing this process shows good progress in selling parts of the business. It affects financial health.
Supportive ifLiquidation of remaining UK assets is completed by the end of Q4.
Worry ifThe liquidation process takes longer than Q4. This shows possible problems in operations.
Why it matters: Updates on joint ventures will show how well Griffon is working with partners and growing.
Watch forGood performance results from the Veritage joint venture are reported.
Also watch forBad performance results or delays in joint ventures are reported.