Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Gilead Sciences (GILD)
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-11-04
$167.57-3.96%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
9.93 → 10.10 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 16 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 16 to 16; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for GILD yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Complete $7.8B Arcellx acquisition | The Arcellx acquisition boosts its cancer drug portfolio. | Intact | acquisition not completed or fails to add value by 2028 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a mature healthcare business with a growing product portfolio, rather than a turnaround or speculative growth story. The long-term thesis is intact: management is delivering on its sales, HIV prevention, and portfolio expansion priorities.
The evidence describes Gilead as cheap versus peers, with low valuation fragility and a justified priced-in assessment. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are not fully aligned with the fundamental outlook, though the evidence does not specify the exact market assumptions.
Near term, product sales excluding Veklury and HIV sales are growing, and management raised full-year product-sales guidance after recent earnings beats. The multi-year trajectory also depends on expanding oncology and inflammation, where sales and pipeline activity show progress; a guidance reversal would damage confidence.
The favorable case depends on continued growth in HIV prevention and other products, plus further progress in oncology and inflammation. The main risks are a reversal of raised guidance and a weaker jobs picture that could pressure healthcare shares; continued strength from sector bellwethers would support the sector backdrop.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis rests on sustained product growth and execution across HIV and newer portfolios, with valuation appearing supportive relative to peers. Recent results keep the thesis intact, but guidance credibility remains an important swing factor. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Gilead grows product sales excluding Veklury to about $29.4 billion in 2026. |
| Under Pressure |
| product sales excluding Veklury fall below $29.4B in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 8 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “HIV sales grew 12%, reflecting continued strength in treatment and the rapid expansion of our PrEP business, supporting an increase in our base business revenue expectations for 2026,” said Daniel O’Day, Gilead’s Chairman and Chief Executive Officer.” “With multiple ongoing and potential launches across HIV and Oncology, important progress in Inflammation and a disciplined operating model, Gilead is well positioned for business growth and impact for patients.”” Revenue was $8.300 billion in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Total revenue near $30.2 billion | Total revenue is expected near $30.2 billion this year. | Under Pressure | total revenue falls below $30.0B in FY26 | Revenue: $8.3B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$30.2B. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 30, 20268,300,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$9.69 → $10.10 · observed estimates
$32.37B → $33.47B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $9.69 | $32,372,021,906 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-07-25 | $9.69 | $32,372,021,906 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-07-26 | $9.63 | $32,282,725,630 | 25 / 24 |
| 2026-07-27 | $9.67 | $32,340,835,397 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-07-28 | $9.67 | $32,340,835,397 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-07-29 | $9.62 | $32,296,850,630 | 26 / 24 |
| 2026-07-30 | $9.62 | $32,296,850,630 | 26 / 24 |
| 2026-07-31 | $9.62 | $32,296,850,630 | 26 / 24 |
| 2026-08-01 | $9.65 | $32,355,574,528 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-08-02 | $9.62 | $32,296,850,630 | 26 / 24 |
| 2026-08-03 | $9.62 | $32,296,850,630 | 26 / 24 |
| 2026-08-04 | $9.62 | $32,296,850,630 | 26 / 24 |
| 2026-08-05 | $9.65 | $32,355,574,528 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-08-06 | $9.65 | $32,355,574,528 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-08-07 | $9.90 | $32,712,717,935 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-08-08 | $9.87 | $32,675,647,360 | 25 / 24 |
| 2026-08-09 | $9.87 | $32,675,647,360 | 25 / 24 |
| 2026-08-10 | $9.87 | $32,675,647,360 | 25 / 24 |
| 2026-08-12 | $9.87 | $32,673,519,360 | 26 / 24 |
| 2026-08-13 | $9.90 | $32,712,717,935 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-08-14 | $9.90 | $32,712,717,935 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-08-15 | $9.90 | $32,712,717,935 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-08-16 | $9.90 | $32,712,717,935 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-08-17 | $9.90 | $32,712,717,935 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-08-18 | $9.90 | $32,712,717,935 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-08-19 | $9.90 | $32,712,717,935 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-08-20 | $9.90 | $32,720,598,007 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-08-21 | $9.90 | $32,720,598,007 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-08-22 | $9.90 | $32,720,598,007 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-08-23 | $9.90 | $32,720,598,007 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-08-24 | $9.90 | $32,720,598,007 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-08-25 | $9.90 | $32,720,598,007 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-08-26 | $9.90 | $32,720,598,007 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-08-27 | $9.90 | $32,720,598,007 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-08-28 | $9.90 | $32,720,598,007 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-08-29 | $9.90 | $32,720,598,007 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-08-30 | $9.90 | $32,720,598,007 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-08-31 | $9.90 | $32,720,598,007 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-01 | $9.90 | $32,720,598,007 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-02 | $9.89 | $32,703,974,457 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-03 | $9.89 | $32,703,974,457 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-04 | $9.89 | $32,703,975,323 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-05 | $9.89 | $32,703,975,323 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-06 | $9.89 | $32,703,975,323 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-07 | $9.89 | $32,703,975,323 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-08 | $9.89 | $32,703,975,323 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-09 | $9.89 | $32,703,975,323 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-10 | $9.89 | $32,708,122,419 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-11 | $9.89 | $32,711,998,081 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-12 | $9.89 | $32,711,983,210 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-13 | $9.89 | $32,711,983,210 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-14 | $9.89 | $32,711,983,210 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-15 | $9.93 | $32,698,149,877 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-16 | $9.93 | $32,698,149,877 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-17 | $9.93 | $32,698,149,877 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-18 | $9.93 | $32,698,149,877 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-19 | $9.93 | $32,698,149,877 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-20 | $9.93 | $32,698,149,877 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-21 | $9.93 | $32,698,149,877 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-22 | $9.93 | $32,698,149,877 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-23 | $9.93 | $32,698,149,877 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-24 | $9.93 | $32,698,149,877 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-25 | $9.93 | $32,698,149,877 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-26 | $9.93 | $32,698,149,877 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-27 | $9.93 | $32,698,149,877 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-28 | $9.93 | $32,698,149,877 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-29 | $9.93 | $32,698,149,877 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-30 | $9.93 | $32,698,149,877 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-10-01 | $9.93 | $32,698,149,877 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-10-02 | $9.93 | $32,698,149,877 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-10-03 | $9.93 | $32,698,149,877 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-10-04 | $9.93 | $32,698,148,839 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-10-05 | $9.93 | $32,698,148,839 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-10-06 | $9.93 | $32,698,148,839 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-10-07 | $9.93 | $32,698,148,839 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-10-08 | $9.94 | $32,732,909,012 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-10-09 | $9.96 | $32,763,632,216 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-10-10 | $9.96 | $32,760,603,301 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-10-11 | $9.96 | $32,760,603,301 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-10-12 | $9.96 | $32,760,603,301 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-10-13 | $9.96 | $32,771,504,951 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-10-14 | $9.98 | $32,834,425,564 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-10-15 | $9.99 | $32,822,133,899 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-10-16 | $9.99 | $32,851,651,732 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-10-17 | $9.99 | $32,851,651,732 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-10-18 | $9.99 | $32,851,651,732 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-10-19 | $9.99 | $32,851,651,732 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-10-20 | $9.99 | $32,853,585,930 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-10-21 | $9.99 | $32,853,570,926 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-10-22 | $10.01 | $32,892,945,926 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-10-23 | $10.02 | $32,921,341,759 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-10-24 | $10.02 | $32,921,341,759 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-10-25 | $10.01 | $32,921,341,759 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-10-26 | $10.01 | $32,921,341,759 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-10-27 | $10.01 | $32,921,341,759 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-10-28 | $9.95 | $32,904,468,051 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-10-29 | $9.95 | $32,904,468,051 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-10-30 | $9.95 | $32,910,009,718 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-10-31 | $10.07 | $33,411,831,154 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-11-01 | $10.07 | $33,411,824,488 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-11-02 | $10.07 | $33,411,824,488 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-11-03 | $10.10 | $33,474,138,521 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-11-04 | $10.10 | $33,474,138,521 | 16 / 18 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 22 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 17 recorded
3 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 5 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.