Gilead Sciences (GILD)
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-11-04
$167.57-3.96%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GILD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -18.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 25.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
GILD — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct
Dated 2026-05-20
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth in
Why it matters: The new single-tablet HIV treatment could add to a growing HIV business. Early sales would test demand for the launch.
Supportive ifA future earnings report shows Bixlenvo sales. It also shows rising demand from people switching from HIV regimens with several tablets.
Worry ifA future earnings release reports weak Bixlenvo demand or no sales growth after launch.
Why it matters: Gilead raised its sales range again in Q3. Results near or above that range would support the base business growth story.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 product sales reach at least $31.0 billion. Sales excluding Veklury reach at least $30.7 billion.
Worry ifFull-year product sales fall below $31.0 billion. Or, sales excluding Veklury fall below $30.7 billion.
Why it matters: Cell Therapy sales fell 18% in Q3 amid competition. Another drop would show that pressure is still weighing on this business.
Worry ifCell Therapy sales fall below $355 million in a later quarter, or decline more than 18% year over year.
Less concerning ifCell Therapy sales rise above $355 million. The year-over-year decline gets smaller or turns into growth.
Why it matters: Cash fell to $6.4 billion after large acquisition costs and other payments. Continued cash generation would show the business can fund these commitments.
Watch forQuarterly operating cash flow stays near or above Q3's $5.0 billion. Cash and marketable debt securities stop falling.
Also watch forOperating cash flow falls below $5.0 billion. Cash and marketable debt securities fall below $6.4 billion.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$119 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $255 loss on $10,000 · 2.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,210 loss on $10,000 · 22.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.