Gilead Sciences (GILD)
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-09-04
$151.00-0.15%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GILD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -30.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 5.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 35.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers
GILD — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct
Dated 2026-05-20
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth in
Why it matters: FDA approval could lead to a significant product launch and revenue boost.
Supportive ifFDA approval of BIC/LEN by the target action date of August 27, 2026.
Worry ifFDA denies approval or delays the decision beyond August 27, 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well sales are doing and how management is growing.
Watch forEarnings report shows big growth in total revenues and product sales.
Also watch forEarnings report shows a drop or no change in total revenues and product sales.
Why it matters: Strong growth in HIV sales supports Gilead's overall revenue goals and reflects market demand.
Supportive ifHIV product sales increase more than 10% year over year in Q3 2026.
Worry ifHIV product sales growth falls below 8% year over year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: The loss per share shows the effects of acquisitions and how well the company operates.
Worry ifQ3 diluted loss per share is worse than $(3.75).
Less concerning ifQ3 diluted loss per share is better than $(3.40).
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$111 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $255 loss on $10,000 · 2.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,210 loss on $10,000 · 22.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Strong sales of Trodelvy may show good integration of cancer treatment assets.
Supportive ifTrodelvy sales increase by more than 25% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifTrodelvy sales decline or grow less than 10% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Approval would help Gilead's cancer drugs. This could improve growth and market share.
Supportive ifFDA approves anito-cel. Gilead can now start selling the therapy.
Worry ifFDA denies approval or delays the decision beyond the target date.
Why it matters: Earnings that meet or exceed raised guidance would confirm Gilead's growth trajectory. Missed targets could raise concerns about future performance.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 earnings report shows results in line with or above the raised guidance.
Worry ifQ2 2026 earnings report falls short of the raised guidance.
Why it matters: Merging with Tubulis could help Gilead's cancer drugs.
Supportive ifGilead buys Tubulis and adds its assets.
Worry ifThe Tubulis deal might have delays or problems with regulators.
Why it matters: Hitting sales goals for anito-cel could lead to extra payments. It would also support the acquisition.
Supportive ifGilead says total global net sales of anito-cel hit $6 billion.
Worry ifGilead says total global net sales of anito-cel are still under $6 billion.
Why it matters: Approval would help Gilead's HIV prevention plan. It would also increase product sales.
Supportive ifFDA may approve lenacapavir for PrEP by February 2, 2027.
Worry ifFDA may deny approval or delay the decision past February 2, 2027.
Why it matters: Meeting sales goals may lead to payments that impact future earnings.
Supportive ifAnito-cel reaches global net sales of at least $6.0 billion by the end of 2029.
Worry ifAnito-cel fails to reach the $6.0 billion sales milestone by the end of 2029.
Why it matters: Good integration of Arcellx is key for its cancer treatment products.
Supportive ifManagement says Arcellx will meet integration goals by Q4 2026.
Worry ifManagement warns there may be integration problems or delays for Arcellx by Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Growth in product sales would show that management is positive about 2026.
Supportive ifProduct sales growth exceeds 10% year-over-year in Q3 2026.
Worry ifProduct sales growth falls below 8% year-over-year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Exceeding this target would show Gilead is growing. It would also show strong results in HIV and cancer.
Supportive ifProduct sales excluding Veklury reach above $30 billion for full year 2026.
Worry ifProduct sales excluding Veklury fall below $29.8 billion for full year 2026.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow helps with ongoing investments and spending plans.
Supportive ifQuarterly cash flow is over $3 billion.
Worry ifQuarterly cash flow drops below $2.5 billion.