General Mills (GIS)
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$38.29-2.47%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GIS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 8.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -1.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 10.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 29 industry peers
GIS — officer change
Dated 2026-05-04
Director — Steve Odland: Steve Odland decided not to stand for reelection to the Board of Directors after more than twenty years of service.
Why it matters: Free cash flow conversion is key for funding growth and returning value to shareholders.
Worry ifFree cash flow is over 95% of adjusted after-tax earnings for fiscal 2026.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow is below 95%. This shows there are still financial problems.
Why it matters: A smaller drop in EPS means better profits and cost control than expected.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS decline is less than 16% from $0.56 in Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS declines by 16% or more.
Why it matters: A decline worse than this shows deeper issues in sales growth. It indicates how well the company is competing.
Worry ifOrganic net sales reported down more than 2% year over year.
Less concerning ifOrganic net sales decline less than 1.5% year over year.
Why it matters: Better organic sales growth shows recovery from past declines. This is important for long-term success.
Supportive ifIn fiscal 2027, organic net sales growth is positive. This shows a clear recovery trend.
Worry ifOrganic net sales continue to decline in fiscal 2027. This shows ongoing challenges.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$134 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $301 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,430 loss on $10,000 · 34.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Dana McNabb's leadership may lead to better operations and a stronger brand.
Watch forLook for positive metrics or brand improvements under COO Dana McNabb.
Also watch forWatch for ongoing sales drops or loss of market share after the leadership change.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well recent strategies are working.
Watch forEarnings beat expectations. This shows better performance.
Also watch forEarnings miss expectations. This shows ongoing problems.
Why it matters: This report will show how the company is doing. It will also cover fiscal 2027.
Watch forThe earnings report shows adjusted diluted EPS over $1.00.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows adjusted diluted EPS under $0.80.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how the company is doing financially. This is important for investors.
Watch forThe earnings report shows adjusted diluted EPS over $0.64. This means better performance.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows adjusted diluted EPS under $0.64. This means ongoing struggles.
Why it matters: Organic sales growth is key for General Mills to show it can recover. If growth improves, it signals effective brand strategies.
Supportive ifOrganic net sales growth turns positive in Q1 2027 after being flat in Q4 2026.
Worry ifOrganic net sales decline again in Q1 2027.
Why it matters: The launch is a key growth initiative for the pet segment. Success could drive sales and market share.
Supportive ifPositive sales reports from the Blue Buffalo fresh pet food launch in the U.S.
Worry ifSales from Blue Buffalo fresh pet food fail to meet initial expectations.
Why it matters: Saving costs is important for better margins and profits. Progress shows good cost management.
Supportive if$750 million in cost savings reported for fiscal 2027.
Worry ifCost savings fall short of the $750 million target for fiscal 2027.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company can make money again after recent losses. This is key for investor trust.
Watch forEarnings per share (EPS) turns positive in Q1 2027.
Also watch forEPS remains negative in Q1 2027.