Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Genworth Financial, Inc. (GNW)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-11-05
$8.91-3.05%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.13 → 1.13 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for GNW yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash from operating activities stays near $90M per quarter | Revenue stays near $1.78 billion per quarter. | Improving | Cash from operating activities falls below $70M per quarter | Cash from operations: $52M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $90M per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 202652,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a financials business with a mixed, execution-dependent multi-year view, rather than a clear growth story. Earnings quality is rated robust and management stable, but recent performance is neutral and below its industry cohort.
The valuation evidence is mixed: one measure describes GNW as cheap versus peers, while another shows a 0.27 peer premium; model confidence is medium. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with low fragility, and the expectations gap is slightly negative at -0.3.
Near term, results merit attention because GNW missed its most recent quarter and has missed across recent quarters; the estimated miss probability is 0.4. Management continues share repurchases and CareScout expansion, but both show mixed progress, while the Closed Block operating loss widened in Q2 2026. Company momentum improved, though leadership transitions and performance below the industry cohort remain relevant context.
The next earnings call is a key near-term test, since a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative. The multi-year view also hinges on whether the Closed Block becomes more self-sustaining and CareScout builds on its network and service activity. Rate changes and earnings trends at sector bellwethers such as BRK-B, AIG, and ACGL are additional swing factors.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis is watchful and mixed: robust earnings quality and ongoing execution efforts are balanced by recent misses and uneven segment progress. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Genworth Financial, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No prolonged CEO absence or leadership disruption. |
| Intact |
| CEO absence extends beyond 6 months or leadership turmoil worsens |
Orderly succession confirmed; CEO retiring with named successor Upton by year-end CEO McInerney retiring with CFO Upton as successor; no leadership disruption or prolonged absence reported. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue remains stable near $1.78 billion per quarter | Revenue stays near $1.78 billion per quarter. | Intact | Quarterly revenue falls below $1.6B | Revenue: $1.794B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.7B per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 5, 20261,794,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Share repurchases continue at $60M to $90M per quarter | Revenue stays near $1.78 billion per quarter. | Intact | Repurchases fall below $40M per quarter | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““Enact’s strong cash generation supported capital returns to shareholders, while we continued to build the CareScout platform and enhanced the self-sustainability of the Closed Block.” ““Enact’s strong cash generation supported capital returns to shareholders, while we continued to build the CareScout platform and enhanced the self-sustainability of the Closed Block.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.10 → $1.13 · observed estimates
Unavailable → $5.84B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.10 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.10 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.10 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.10 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.10 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.10 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.10 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.10 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.10 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.10 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.10 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.10 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.10 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.10 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.10 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-05 | $1.13 | $5,838,329,314 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.