Genworth Financial, Inc. (GNW)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-09-04
$10.35-0.29%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GNW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -16.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -16.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 0.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 5 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
GNW — officer change
Dated 2026-08-20
CEO — Thomas J. McInerney: The CEO is returning from a leave of absence to resume his role, replacing an interim officer, which is a succession event rather than a loss of a permanent executive.
Why it matters: A drop in adjusted operating income shows that making more money is still a problem.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted operating income is below $112M. This is less than Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifQ3 adjusted operating income stays at or above $112M.
Why it matters: Enact's capital return helps Genworth's finances. Updates can change how investors feel.
Supportive ifEnact plans a capital return over $99M in the next quarter.
Worry ifEnact's capital return falls below $99M or is delayed.
Why it matters: A drop could mean less demand for home care services, affecting future growth.
Worry ifCareScout matches are below 1,400 in a future quarter.
Less concerning ifCareScout matches remain above 1,400 in a future quarter.
Why it matters: Net income trends show how profitable the company is. A strong result can improve market views.
Supportive ifQ2 net income exceeds $47M.
Worry ifQ2 net income falls below $47M.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$68 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $202 loss on $10,000 · 2.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,407 loss on $10,000 · 14.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: If it drops below this level, it may show problems with profits and stability.
Worry ifOperating income without Closed Block is below $100M in a future quarter.
Less concerning ifOperating income without Closed Block stays above $100M in a future quarter.
Why it matters: Jerome Upton's leadership may change the strategy while McInerney is away. Investors will watch to see if the company keeps growing.
Watch forUpton shares new plans or goals in a press release or earnings call.
Also watch forNo big changes or updates are shared. This shows things are staying the same.
Why it matters: Stable revenue is crucial for growth. A decline could signal deeper issues.
Worry ifRevenue stays above $1.777B in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifRevenue drops below $1.777B in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A rise in adjusted operating income shows better financial health. This follows recent drops.
Supportive ifQ2 adjusted operating income is over $109M. This shows a positive trend.
Worry ifQ2 adjusted operating income is under $100M. This shows ongoing struggles.
Why it matters: Updates on share buybacks show a promise to return money to shareholders. This can help investor feelings.
Supportive ifNew share buyback amounts are over $500M.
Worry ifNo new news on share buybacks or cuts to planned buybacks.
Why it matters: A drop in net investment income means weaker investment results.
Worry ifQ3 net investment income falls below $660M, the level reported in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifQ3 net investment income stays at or above $660M.
Why it matters: Better cash flow from operations is key for growth and paying shareholders.
Supportive ifCash from operations is over $60M in Q3 2026. This shows better cash handling.
Worry ifCash from operations stays under $50M in Q3 2026. This shows cash flow problems.
Why it matters: A drop in the PMIERs sufficiency ratio may mean problems for mortgage insurance.
Worry ifPMIERs sufficiency ratio falls below 160% in Q3.
Less concerning ifPMIERs sufficiency ratio stays at or above 160% in Q3.
Why it matters: A drop in sector growth could impact Genworth's performance. It signals broader challenges.
Worry ifSector revenue growth falls below its median, indicating a slowdown.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth is above its median. This suggests things are stable.
Why it matters: The CEO's health and interim leadership can change company strategy and actions.
Watch forTom McInerney is back in his role. This brings back leadership stability.
Also watch forMore delays in leadership changes or absence lead to uncertainty.
Why it matters: A drop in the RBC ratio may indicate financial strain in the insurance segment.
Worry ifRBC ratio drops below 280%.
Less concerning ifRBC ratio stays above 280%.
Why it matters: More share buybacks show strong returns and trust in the business.
Supportive ifIn Q3, share buybacks are over $60 million. This continues the trend from before.
Worry ifIn Q3, share buybacks are under $60 million. This shows less capital return activity.
Why it matters: Increasing matches show growth in the CareScout platform, which is key for long-term strategy.
Supportive ifCareScout matches are over 1,500 in Q3. This shows strong growth for the platform.
Worry ifCareScout matches fall below 1,400 in Q3, suggesting slower growth.