Grocery Outlet (GO)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesGrocery StoresSnapshot 2026-09-04
$12.38+0.65%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesGrocery StoresSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GO
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $12 GO trades at 20× p/e, in line with its 17× p/e peer median — but our blended $10 fair value sits below the price. We hold it with medium confidence: quality doesn't explain valuation multiples in this sub-industry, so the peer comparison is a weak guide. Analysts target $9.00–$12. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $10.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| graham number | 12M | $10.69 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $19.82 | 11.8 | 1.71 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $9.88 | 15.6 | 0.63 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
$9.00 – $12.00 (median $10.00) · 7 analysts · as of 2026-08-13
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
| 12M |
| $40.27 |
| 0.9 |
| 47.18 |
| TTM |
| high |
| PEG | 12M | $11.13 | 17.9 | 0.62 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $7.54 | — | — | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $10.72 | 16.8 | 0.64 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $21.00 | 15.6 | 1.34 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $42.12 | 0.9 | 49.34 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $24.12 | 17.9 | 1.34 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $21.03 | 15.6 | 1.35 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $42.17 | 0.9 | 49.41 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $24.15 | 17.9 | 1.35 | Analyst | medium |