Grocery Outlet (GO)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesGrocery StoresSnapshot 2026-09-04
$12.38+0.65%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesGrocery StoresSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 21.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 18.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 4 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
GO — CFO transition
Dated 2026-06-09
Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer — Christopher M. Miller: Christopher M. Miller, the Chief Financial Officer, is departing from the company.
Why it matters: New store openings are crucial for growth. Fewer openings could indicate challenges in expansion plans.
Supportive ifNet new store openings exceed 10 in Q2.
Worry ifNet new store openings are fewer than 10 in Q2.
Why it matters: Keeping gross margin above this level shows good cost control and pricing. It means the company is strong during promotions.
Supportive ifGross margin remains above 29.8% for Q3.
Worry ifGross margin falls below 29.7% for Q3.
Why it matters: A rebound in revenue growth could signal a shift in the consumer staples sector. This may help Grocery Outlet's performance.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth is more than 5% year over year. This shows a positive trend.
Worry ifSector revenue growth is under 5%. This means growth is still slow.
Why it matters: Finishing the store closures will show progress in making more money and running better.
Supportive ifAll 36 weak stores in the Optimization Plan are closed by the end of Q2.
Worry ifSome of the 36 stores remain open beyond the planned closure timeline.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$185 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $475 loss on $10,000 · 4.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,840 loss on $10,000 · 68.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Better store sales would mean the Optimization Plan is working. This shows more customer engagement and better sales.
Supportive ifComparable store sales increase year over year by more than 0.0%.
Worry ifComparable store sales decline year over year by more than -0.5%.
Why it matters: Finishing the Optimization Plan on time shows good management. It shows a focus on making profits in the long run.
Supportive ifThe Optimization Plan is fully completed by the end of Q1 2027.
Worry ifThe Optimization Plan is delayed beyond Q1 2027.
Why it matters: Completing the plan shows a focus on making money. It also means better operations.
Supportive ifAll planned store closures and changes are done by Q1 2027.
Worry ifDelays in completing the Optimization Plan beyond Q1 2027.
Why it matters: Keeping this margin range shows good pricing and cost strategies during store closures.
Supportive ifGross margin remains between 29.8% and 30.0% for fiscal 2026.
Worry ifGross margin drops below 29.7% for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: If store sales stay the same or go up, it shows the Optimization Plan is working. It also means customers are more engaged.
Supportive ifQ2 comparable store sales show an increase or stabilize from the -1.0% decline reported in Q1.
Worry ifQ2 comparable store sales decline further from the -1.0% reported in Q1.
Why it matters: Meeting the new store opening goal shows that growth strategies are working.
Supportive ifThe company opens 30-33 new stores by the end of fiscal 2026.
Worry ifNew store openings are much lower than the goal of 30-33.
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA shows how well the company is doing. Missing the target may mean bigger problems.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA falls below $220 million for Q2.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA meets or exceeds $220 million for Q2.
Why it matters: A larger decline would signal deeper issues in customer traffic and spending. This could affect future revenue growth.
Worry ifComparable store sales decline worse than -0.5% in Q3.
Less concerning ifStore sales stay the same or get better each year.
Why it matters: New store openings are crucial for revenue growth. Fewer openings could indicate a slowdown in expansion plans.
Supportive ifNet new store openings exceed 33 by the end of 2026.
Worry ifNet new store openings fall below 30 by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: The plan aims to close weak stores to make more money. Progress shows good management.
Supportive ifThe company closed 36 weak stores as planned. It reports better profit numbers.
Worry ifFewer than 36 stores closed. There are still losses without any improvement.
Why it matters: Meeting this target would show progress in making money and generating cash. It means the company's changes are working.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA reaches $225 million or more for fiscal 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA is less than $220 million for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: The new CFO's strategies will be critical for financial stability and growth.
Watch forThe new CFO shares a plan that improves financial results.
Also watch forThe new CFO's plans cause more financial problems or delays.