Grocery Outlet (GO)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesGrocery StoresSnapshot 2026-11-04
$13.14-4.02%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesGrocery StoresSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 28.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 24.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 2 industry peers
GO — CFO transition
Dated 2026-06-09
Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer — Christopher M. Miller: Christopher M. Miller, the Chief Financial Officer, is departing from the company.
Why it matters: The company raised its sales range to $4.70 billion–$4.72 billion. First-half sales grew 2.3%, with new stores offsetting weak comps.
Watch forFiscal 2026 net sales are at least $4.70 billion, within the revised guidance range.
Also watch forFiscal 2026 net sales are below $4.70 billion, or management lowers its sales range.
Why it matters: First-half margin was 29.9%, but Q2 margin fell 40 basis points. Promotions and store closure costs weighed on results.
Watch forQ3 gross margin is at least 29.8%, the low end of the current fiscal-year range.
Also watch forQ3 gross margin is below 29.8%, or management lowers the 29.8%–30.0% full-year range.
Why it matters: Q2 comps fell 0.3%, but transaction counts rose 1.8%. Positive comps would show that sales gains are broadening.
Supportive ifIn the Nov. 10 earnings report, Q3 comparable-store sales grow year over year.
Worry ifQ3 comparable-store sales fall year over year. Transaction size keeps falling.
Why it matters: Grocery Outlet closed all 36 planned stores, but lease exits and other costs remain. Completion could limit further charges.
Supportive ifBy Q1 fiscal 2027, the company reports the plan is mostly done. Total charges are within $15 million to $24 million.
Worry ifThe plan remains incomplete after Q1 fiscal 2027, or total charges exceed $24 million.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$174 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $434 loss on $10,000 · 4.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,914 loss on $10,000 · 59.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.