Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-03 · fmp
Grocery Outlet (GO)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesGrocery StoresSnapshot 2026-11-04
$13.14-4.02%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesGrocery StoresSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.67 → 0.67 EPS · FY ending Jan 3, 2028 · 8 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for GO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA between $220 million and $235 million in 2026 | The company aims for adjusted EBITDA between $220 million and $235 million in 2026. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $220 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-03 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 10, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a turnaround thesis, not yet a proven durable compounder. The thesis is on watch: operating income improved in 2026-Q2, but recent financial performance remains weak and confidence is medium.
GO is tagged as stretched and valued at a 1.29 premium versus peers, with a possible expectations gap tied to re-rating, or a change in how the market values the business. The evidence indicates some expectations are already built in, but does not specify what investors assume about future earnings; valuation fragility is rated low.
Near term, the Optimization Plan has shown progress: 36 stores closed, and operating income moved from a loss in 2026-Q1 to a profit in 2026-Q2 despite restructuring charges. First-half revenue grew 2.3% year over year, while adjusted EBITDA reached $108.8 million, leaving delivery against the full-year goal mixed; fiscal 2026 guidance remains in place. Weak recent performance, falling earnings surprises, and elevated risk temper the picture, although the near-term miss-risk tier is quiet.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on GO maintaining guidance and converting store closures into stronger profitability and cash flow. A guidance cut would be a negative signal, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers such as KR, ACI, and SFM would support the sector backdrop. Further weakening in the jobs report could add pressure to cyclical businesses.
For the 1-to-3-year view, GO remains an uncertain turnaround with early operating progress, but weak results and elevated risk leave execution as the central test. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Profit margin is expected near 29.85%. |
| Intact |
| Gross margin falls below 29.7% in FY26 |
Gross margin: 30.24% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 29.85%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 12, 202630.242194 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain revenue near $4.66 billion in fiscal 2026 | A primary condition in Grocery Outlet's published investment case. The stated target is ~$4.66B. | Intact | Revenue falls below $4.6 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $1.193B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$4.66B. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 12, 20261,192,764,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Close 36 underperforming stores to improve profitability | Grocery Outlet plans to close 36 bad stores to cut losses. | Improving | Fails to close 36 stores or operating loss worsens | 42 stores closed vs 36 target News confirms 42 store closures completed, surpassing the 36-store target. Guidance raised, though losses are widening. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.63 → $0.67 · observed estimates
$4.87B → $4.92B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.63 | $4,872,038,849 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.63 | $4,872,038,849 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.63 | $4,872,038,849 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.63 | $4,872,038,849 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.63 | $4,872,038,849 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.63 | $4,872,038,849 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.63 | $4,872,038,849 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.63 | $4,871,395,123 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.63 | $4,871,395,123 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.63 | $4,871,395,123 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.63 | $4,871,395,123 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.63 | $4,871,395,123 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.63 | $4,871,395,123 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.63 | $4,871,395,123 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.63 | $4,871,395,123 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.63 | $4,871,395,123 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.63 | $4,871,395,123 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.63 | $4,871,395,123 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.63 | $4,871,395,123 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.63 | $4,871,395,123 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.63 | $4,871,395,123 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.63 | $4,871,395,123 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.63 | $4,871,395,123 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.63 | $4,871,395,123 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.63 | $4,871,395,123 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.63 | $4,871,395,123 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.67 | $4,912,142,401 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.67 | $4,912,142,401 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.67 | $4,912,142,401 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.67 | $4,912,142,401 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.67 | $4,912,142,401 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.67 | $4,912,142,401 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.67 | $4,912,142,401 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.67 | $4,912,142,401 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.67 | $4,912,142,401 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.67 | $4,912,142,401 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.67 | $4,912,142,401 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.67 | $4,912,142,401 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.67 | $4,912,142,401 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.67 | $4,912,142,401 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.67 | $4,912,142,401 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.67 | $4,912,142,401 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.67 | $4,912,142,401 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.67 | $4,912,142,401 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.67 | $4,912,142,401 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.67 | $4,912,142,401 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.67 | $4,912,142,401 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.67 | $4,912,142,401 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.67 | $4,912,142,401 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.67 | $4,912,142,401 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.67 | $4,912,142,401 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.67 | $4,912,142,401 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.67 | $4,912,142,401 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.67 | $4,912,142,401 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.67 | $4,912,142,401 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.67 | $4,912,142,401 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.67 | $4,912,142,401 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.67 | $4,912,142,401 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.67 | $4,912,142,401 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.67 | $4,912,142,401 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.67 | $4,912,142,401 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.67 | $4,912,142,401 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.67 | $4,912,142,401 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.67 | $4,912,142,401 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.67 | $4,912,142,401 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.67 | $4,912,142,401 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.67 | $4,912,142,401 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.67 | $4,912,142,401 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.67 | $4,912,142,401 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.67 | $4,912,142,401 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.67 | $4,917,724,001 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.67 | $4,917,724,001 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.67 | $4,917,724,001 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.67 | $4,917,724,001 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.67 | $4,917,724,001 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.67 | $4,917,724,001 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.67 | $4,917,724,001 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.67 | $4,917,724,001 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.67 | $4,917,724,001 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.67 | $4,917,724,001 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.67 | $4,917,724,001 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.67 | $4,917,724,001 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.67 | $4,917,724,001 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.67 | $4,917,724,001 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.67 | $4,917,724,001 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.67 | $4,917,724,001 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.67 | $4,917,724,001 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.67 | $4,917,724,001 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.67 | $4,917,724,001 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.67 | $4,917,724,001 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.67 | $4,917,724,001 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.67 | $4,920,875,734 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.67 | $4,920,875,734 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.67 | $4,920,875,734 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.67 | $4,920,875,734 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.67 | $4,920,875,734 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.67 | $4,920,875,734 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.67 | $4,920,875,734 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.67 | $4,920,875,734 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.67 | $4,920,875,734 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.67 | $4,920,875,734 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.67 | $4,920,875,734 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.67 | $4,920,875,734 | 8 / 11 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 12 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.