Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Grindr, Inc. (GRND)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$13.64-2.64%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.81 → 0.81 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for GRND yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA at least $227M in 2026 | A primary condition in Grindr, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $227 million. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $227 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Document Exhibit 99.1 Grindr Inc. Reports Second Quarter 2026 Revenue Growth of 33%, Raises Guidance Second Quarter 2026 Revenue of $138 Million Net Income of $18 Million, Net Income Margin of 13% Adjusted EBITDA of $58 Million, Adjusted EBITDA Margin of 42% Increases expectation of full-year 2026 Revenue to approximately $540 Million and Adjusted EBITDA to approximately $232 Million LOS ANGELES, CA – August 6, 2026 – Grindr Inc. (NYSE: GRND) (“Grindr” or the “Company”), the Global Gayborhood in Your Pocket TM , today posted its financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026, in a Letter to Shareholders.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-oriented business with improving profitability, but it is not yet consistently profitable on the reported earnings measure. The long-term thesis is intact, though the signal has shifted from mildly favorable to mixed and the evidence confidence is medium.
The valuation evidence describes GRND as cheap versus peers, while its overall value assessment is neutral and model confidence is low. The market is not showing a high fragility signal, but the evidence does not specify the exact growth or profitability expectations already reflected in the valuation.
Near term, management’s 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA priorities are on track: both measures grew, and full-year guidance was raised. The main concern is execution credibility after a recent earnings miss, especially if management later cuts the guidance it raised; AI and new product efforts remain a watch area without direct financial proof.
The multi-year view depends on GRND sustaining revenue growth and converting it into higher adjusted profitability while delivering on product expansion. Near term, a guidance reversal would weaken confidence, while lower interest rates or stabilization among large technology peers could improve the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, GRND’s thesis rests on continued execution against raised guidance and progress in product capabilities, with recent misses and elevated risk tempering the positive operating trend. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stable leadership and incentive alignment | The company has stable leadership and good market position. | Intact | Loss of key executives or incentive misalignment | CFO John North retained with new incentives (qualitative) June 2026 filing confirms CFO John North's retention via new compensation incentives; no executive departures reported. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue at least $535M in 2026 | A primary condition in Grindr, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $535 million. | Intact | Revenue falls below $535 million in FY26 | Revenue: $138.138M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $535 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 2026138,138,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Document Exhibit 99.1 Grindr Inc. Reports Second Quarter 2026 Revenue Growth of 33%, Raises Guidance Second Quarter 2026 Revenue of $138 Million Net Income of $18 Million, Net Income Margin of 13% Adjusted EBITDA of $58 Million, Adjusted EBITDA Margin of 42% Increases expectation of full-year 2026 Revenue to approximately $540 Million and Adjusted EBITDA to approximately $232 Million LOS ANGELES, CA – August 6, 2026 – Grindr Inc. (NYSE: GRND) (“Grindr” or the “Company”), the Global Gayborhood in Your Pocket TM , today posted its financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026, in a Letter to Shareholders.” Revenue was $138.138 million in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.77 → $0.81 · observed estimates
$0.63B → $0.64B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.77 | $629,495,700 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.76 | $629,495,699 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.77 | $629,495,700 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.76 | $629,495,699 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.76 | $629,495,699 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.76 | $629,495,699 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.76 | $629,495,699 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.76 | $629,495,699 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.76 | $629,495,699 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.76 | $629,495,699 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.77 | $629,495,700 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.77 | $629,495,700 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.77 | $629,495,700 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.77 | $629,495,700 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.76 | $629,495,699 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.77 | $634,689,550 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.77 | $634,689,550 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.76 | $629,495,699 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.76 | $629,495,699 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.76 | $629,495,699 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.76 | $629,495,699 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.76 | $629,495,699 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.76 | $629,495,699 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.76 | $629,495,699 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.76 | $629,495,699 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.76 | $629,495,699 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.79 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.79 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.79 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.79 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.79 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.79 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.79 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.79 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.79 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.79 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.79 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.79 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.79 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.79 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.79 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.79 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.79 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.79 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.79 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.79 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.79 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.79 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.79 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.79 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.79 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.79 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.79 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.79 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.79 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.79 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.79 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.79 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.79 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.79 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.79 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.79 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.79 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.79 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.79 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.79 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.79 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.79 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.79 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.81 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.81 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.81 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.81 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.81 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.81 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.81 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.81 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.81 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.81 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.81 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.81 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.81 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.81 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.81 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.81 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.81 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.81 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.81 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.81 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.81 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.81 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.81 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.81 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.81 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.81 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.81 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.81 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.81 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.81 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.81 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.81 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.81 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.81 | $635,558,349 | 2 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.