Grindr, Inc. (GRND)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$15.25-2.62%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GRND
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -37.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 17.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 55.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 119 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
GRND — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2026, the Company issued a press release and posted a shareholder letter to its website announcing its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release dated August 6, 2026, and the shareholder letter dated August 6, 2026, are attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively, and are incorporated herein by reference. The information contained herein and the accompanying Exhibi…
Why it matters: Reaching this target shows that Grindr can control costs and increase revenue. This is important for making money in the long run.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA of $227M or more reported for 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA falls below $227M for 2026.
Why it matters: A 26% growth for 2025 shows trust in future results.
Watch forManagement reaffirms 2025 revenue growth of 26% or greater.
Also watch forManagement cuts 2025 revenue growth to less than 20%.
Why it matters: Better user engagement can bring in more money. It can also strengthen the market position.
Supportive ifUser engagement metrics show a big increase each quarter.
Worry ifUser engagement metrics go down or stay the same.
Why it matters: User growth is crucial for long-term revenue and engagement. It reflects product appeal.
Watch forUser growth exceeds 10% quarter over quarter.
Also watch forUser growth is less than 10% quarter over quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$155 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $430 loss on $10,000 · 4.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,886 loss on $10,000 · 38.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: New product launches can drive user engagement and revenue growth. This is crucial for maintaining competitive advantage.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of the launch of the Edge product or new features.
Worry ifNo news about new products or features in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Confirming revenue guidance shows that management believes in growth. This can help investor feelings.
Watch forManagement says they expect revenue to grow during the earnings call.
Also watch forManagement says they expect revenue to grow less during the earnings call.
Why it matters: New partnerships could strengthen Grindr's brand and user engagement.
Supportive ifA new big partnership was announced, like the Madonna deal.
Worry ifNo new partnerships announced within the next quarter.
Why it matters: The success of Edge is crucial for expanding Grindr's user base and revenue potential.
Supportive ifUser growth from the Edge launch exceeds 10% in the first quarter post-launch.
Worry ifUser growth from the Edge launch is below 5% in the first quarter post-launch.
Why it matters: Successful AI product launches could enhance user experience and drive growth.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of successful launch of the Edge product or new AI features.
Worry ifNo updates or delays on planned AI product launches.
Why it matters: Keeping this margin shows that Grindr can control costs. It also shows they can grow revenue.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin was over 45% for Q2 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin drops below 40% for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Maintaining strong revenue growth shows Grindr's ability to attract and retain users. It also supports the raised full-year revenue guidance.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 30% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 30% year over year.
Why it matters: A rise in Adjusted EBITDA shows better operations. It also backs the higher full-year guidance.
Supportive ifIn Q3, Adjusted EBITDA was more than $58 million.
Worry ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA remains at or below $58 million.
Why it matters: Better user engagement means product changes are working. This can lead to more money.
Supportive ifUser engagement numbers went up after new features like Edge were launched.
Worry ifUser engagement numbers drop or stay the same after new features are launched.