Grindr, Inc. (GRND)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$14.01+7.19%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GRND
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -42.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 20.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 62.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 36 industry peers
GRND — capital allocation — Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities
Dated 2026-09-30
Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities. The information set forth in
Why it matters: Closing brings Freddie’s PrEP care into Grindr Health. A delay or failed deal would push back that plan.
Supportive ifGrindr reports that the PurposeMed deal closed in Q4 2026.
Worry ifGrindr reports that closing conditions were not met, or the deal did not close by December 31, 2026.
Why it matters: Grindr raised its 2026 revenue guide after strong user activity. Missing the new mark would reverse that progress.
Worry ifGrindr reports 2026 revenue of at least $540 million.
Less concerning ifGrindr reports 2026 revenue below $540 million, or cuts its full-year guide before year-end.
Why it matters: Management named Edge as a key product launch. A launch with strong use would support its product plan; a delay or weak use would not.
Watch forGrindr launches Edge globally and reports higher use or engagement tied to the product.
Also watch forGrindr delays the global launch, or reports no rise in use or engagement tied to Edge.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$164 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $412 loss on $10,000 · 4.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,507 loss on $10,000 · 35.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.