Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
GrowGeneration Corp (GRWG)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
$1.47-3.29%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for GRWG yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve breakeven Adjusted EBITDA for full year 2026 | GrowGeneration aims to reach breakeven Adjusted EBITDA in 2026. | Broken | Adjusted EBITDA remains negative through FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 10, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk turnaround-style business, not yet a proven durable compounder. The multi-year view has improved from mixed to mildly favorable, while the current thesis remains on watch because financial performance is weak relative to its industry cohort.
GRWG is valued at a 1.56 premium to peers, with medium confidence in that estimate and an expectations gap of 0.52. The valuation signal is tagged unjustified: the evidence points to an expensive valuation, but not the combined fragile setup of expensive, weak, and turbulent conditions.
Near-term results remain uncertain, with a 45% estimated miss probability and a recent run of earnings misses. In 2026, revenue rose from $38.4 million in Q1 to $43.2 million in Q2, while Adjusted EBITDA moved from a $1.6 million loss to a $0.3 million gain; management raised its full-year Adjusted EBITDA outlook to $2 million to $3 million and reaffirmed revenue guidance of $162 million to $168 million. Proprietary brand penetration reached 39.7% in Q2, close to the approximately 40% year-end goal.
The central test is whether cost reductions and operational improvements support the full-year Adjusted EBITDA goal while revenue stays within management’s guidance. A guidance cut after the recent increase would weaken management credibility. Consumer Discretionary sector sentiment is another swing factor: earnings and guidance from AMZN, BABA, and PDD could strengthen or weaken the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis depends on turning recent operating progress into sustained improvement, while the expensive valuation and near-term execution risk remain meaningful constraints. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in GrowGeneration Corp's published investment case. The stated target is >= $162M revenue. |
| Intact |
| Full year revenue falls below $162M in 2026 |
Revenue: $43.215M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $162M revenue. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 11, 202643,215,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Execute share repurchase program up to $10M | The company has a $10M share buyback program. | Intact | No meaningful share repurchases by end of 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.05 → $-0.04 · observed estimates
$0.17B → $0.17B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.05 | $172,086,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.05 | $172,086,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.05 | $172,086,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.05 | $172,086,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.05 | $172,086,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.05 | $172,086,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.05 | $172,086,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.05 | $172,086,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.05 | $172,086,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.05 | $172,086,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.05 | $172,086,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.05 | $172,086,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.05 | $172,086,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.05 | $172,086,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.05 | $172,086,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.05 | $172,086,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.05 | $172,086,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.05 | $172,086,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.05 | $172,086,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.05 | $172,086,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.05 | $172,086,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.05 | $172,086,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.05 | $172,086,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.05 | $172,086,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.05 | $172,086,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.05 | $172,086,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-05 | $-0.04 | $174,763,500 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.