GrowGeneration Corp (GRWG)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$1.65+3.13%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GRWG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 47.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 43.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 45 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
GRWG — CFO transition
Dated 2025-12-30
Chief Financial Officer — Gregory Sanders: The CFO entered into a new employment agreement with the company.
Why it matters: Lower costs mean better management and can help make more money.
Supportive ifTotal operating costs drop by over 10% from Q2 2026.
Worry ifTotal operating costs rise or change less than 10% from Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Reaching breakeven Adjusted EBITDA is key for financial stability. It shows how well cost cuts work.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA reported at or near breakeven for Q2 or Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA loss is still high, over $1.6 million.
Why it matters: Meeting this target is crucial to stay on track for the annual revenue goal of $162M to $168M.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue was $40M or more. This shows progress towards annual goals.
Worry ifQ2 revenue was below $40M. This shows challenges in meeting annual goals.
Why it matters: A rise in sector revenue growth may improve GrowGeneration's outlook.
Watch forSector revenue growth reported positive year over year.
Also watch forSector revenue growth remains negative year over year.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$226 on $10,000 · ±2.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $587 loss on $10,000 · 5.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,273 loss on $10,000 · 52.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This shows management believes in the company's value and future.
Supportive ifThey announced a share repurchase program. This shows they care about capital use.
Worry ifNo share repurchase announcement. This suggests management does not trust the stock.
Why it matters: Progress on this program shows management's belief in the company's value.
Supportive ifThey announced share repurchases of at least $5M.
Worry ifNo updates or delays in the share repurchase program.
Why it matters: Meeting or beating this target shows strong revenue growth. It shows the company can keep going in a tough market.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue is $44 million or more. This shows growth is continuing.
Worry ifQ3 revenue falls below $44 million, suggesting a slowdown in growth.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows the growth plan is working. It means better margins and a stronger product mix.
Supportive ifProprietary brand sales reach or exceed 40% of revenue.
Worry ifProprietary brand sales stay below 40%. This shows slower progress.
Why it matters: Reaching this target shows the brand strategy is working and margins are higher.
Supportive ifBrand sales are 40% or more of Cultivation and Gardening sales.
Worry ifProprietary brand sales stay below 39.7% by the end of the year.
Why it matters: This guidance shows if the company can keep growing revenue. It’s a key test of their strategy.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue guidance confirms net sales in the range of $44 million to $46 million.
Worry ifQ3 guidance is below $44 million. This shows weaker growth expectations.
Why it matters: Hitting this range shows the company is getting closer to making money. It shows success in managing costs.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA reported in the range of $2 million to $3 million for the full year.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA is below $2 million. This shows ongoing challenges in making a profit.
Why it matters: Ongoing expense cuts show good cost management. This helps with overall profit goals.
Supportive ifOperating expenses are less than last quarter.
Worry ifOperating expenses go up or do not drop. This shows issues with cost control.