Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Goldman Sachs (GS)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$928.00+3.56%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
72.30 → 74.67 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 19 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 17 to 19; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for GS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Asset & Wealth Management revenue grows to $4.08B by 2026-Q1 | Asset & Wealth Management revenue rises 10% in the same period. | Intact | revenue falls below $3.7 billion in 2026-Q1 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Asset & Wealth Management net revenues increased from $4.40 billion in 2025-Q3 to $5.05 billion in 2026-Q3, a 14% growth. Management is delivering on enhancing this segment's performance. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a financial-sector business with strong recent performance, rather than a clear turnaround or speculative-growth story. The long-term thesis is intact, though its signal has softened from favorable to mildly favorable.
The valuation evidence is mixed: GS is described as cheap versus peers, but the peer comparison also shows a premium. The expectations gap is modestly negative, and the priced-in assessment is labeled justified, with low fragility rather than a broad set of valuation and execution concerns.
Near term, recent earnings beats and strong financial performance support the business, while management is on track with priorities in Global Banking & Markets, Asset & Wealth Management, and capital returns. Earnings quality is still described as fragile, and the recent history of a deep miss plus peer misses warrant attention despite a low stated miss risk.
The next call matters: a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative and could lead analysts to lower estimates. Over the multi-year view, the setup also depends on rates and sector results, with rate cuts a potential headwind and continued earnings strength from sector bellwethers a possible support.
For the next 1 to 3 years, GS has an intact thesis backed by strong recent results and management execution, but fragile earnings quality and sensitivity to rates leave meaningful swing factors. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Capital returned to shareholders reaches $6.38B in 2026-Q1 | A supporting condition in Goldman Sachs's published investment case. The stated target is >= $6.38 billion. | Intact | capital return falls below $3.25 billion in 2026-Q1 | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Cash returned to shareholders from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. The quarterly dividend increased from $4.00 in 2025-Q3 to $5.00 in 2026-Q3. Capital returned to shareholders grew from $3.25 billion in 2025-Q3 to $4.49 billion in 2026-Q3, including share repurchases. Management is delivering on maintaining strong capital returns. Delivery assessment Oct 31, 2026 |
EPS grows to about $60.1 in 2026 | A primary condition in Goldman Sachs's published investment case. The stated target is >= $60.1 per share. | Intact | EPS falls below $55 per share in 2026-FY | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Global Banking & Markets revenue grows to $12.74B by 2026-Q1 | Goldman Sachs grows Global Banking & Markets revenue 19% by 2026-Q1. | Intact | revenue falls below $10.7 billion in 2026-Q1 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Global Banking & Markets net revenues increased from $10.12 billion in 2025-Q3 to $13.46 billion in 2026-Q3, a 32% growth. This reflects delivering on management's focus to grow this segment's revenue. Delivery assessment Oct 31, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$72.76 → $74.67 · observed estimates
$72.78B → $74.39B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $72.76 | $72,781,092,678 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-07-25 | $72.76 | $72,781,092,678 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-07-26 | $72.76 | $72,781,092,678 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-07-27 | $72.76 | $72,781,092,678 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-07-28 | $72.76 | $72,781,092,678 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-07-29 | $72.76 | $72,781,092,678 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-07-30 | $73.88 | $73,303,761,090 | 22 / 19 |
| 2026-07-31 | $73.94 | $73,333,866,350 | 22 / 19 |
| 2026-08-01 | $73.07 | $73,138,566,363 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-08-02 | $73.94 | $73,333,866,350 | 22 / 19 |
| 2026-08-03 | $73.07 | $73,138,566,363 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-08-04 | $73.94 | $73,333,866,350 | 22 / 19 |
| 2026-08-05 | $74.17 | $73,582,554,920 | 22 / 19 |
| 2026-08-06 | $74.17 | $73,582,554,920 | 22 / 19 |
| 2026-08-07 | $73.07 | $73,138,566,363 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-08-08 | $73.07 | $73,138,566,363 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-08-09 | $74.17 | $73,582,554,920 | 22 / 19 |
| 2026-08-10 | $74.17 | $73,582,554,920 | 22 / 19 |
| 2026-08-12 | $74.17 | $73,582,554,920 | 22 / 19 |
| 2026-08-13 | $73.07 | $73,138,566,363 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-08-14 | $73.07 | $73,138,566,363 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-08-15 | $73.07 | $73,138,566,363 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-08-16 | $73.07 | $73,138,566,363 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-08-17 | $73.07 | $73,138,566,363 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-08-18 | $73.07 | $73,138,566,363 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-08-19 | $73.07 | $73,138,566,363 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-08-20 | $73.27 | $73,387,276,638 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-08-21 | $73.27 | $73,387,276,638 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-08-22 | $73.34 | $73,391,560,428 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-08-23 | $73.34 | $73,391,560,428 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-08-24 | $73.34 | $73,391,560,428 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-08-25 | $73.34 | $73,391,560,428 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-08-26 | $73.34 | $73,391,560,428 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-08-27 | $73.34 | $73,391,560,428 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-08-28 | $73.34 | $73,391,560,428 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-08-29 | $73.34 | $73,391,560,428 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-08-30 | $73.34 | $73,391,560,428 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-08-31 | $73.34 | $73,391,560,428 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-09-01 | $73.34 | $73,391,560,428 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-09-02 | $73.34 | $73,391,560,428 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-09-03 | $73.34 | $73,391,560,428 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-09-04 | $73.34 | $73,391,560,428 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-09-05 | $73.34 | $73,391,560,428 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-09-06 | $73.34 | $73,391,560,428 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-09-07 | $73.34 | $73,391,560,428 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-09-08 | $73.34 | $73,391,560,428 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-09-09 | $73.34 | $73,391,560,428 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-09-10 | $73.34 | $73,391,560,428 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-09-11 | $73.34 | $73,391,570,328 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-09-12 | $73.34 | $73,391,570,328 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-09-13 | $73.34 | $73,391,570,328 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-09-14 | $73.34 | $73,391,570,328 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-09-15 | $73.34 | $73,391,570,328 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-09-16 | $73.34 | $73,391,570,328 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-09-17 | $73.34 | $73,391,570,328 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-09-18 | $73.34 | $73,391,570,328 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-09-19 | $73.34 | $73,391,570,328 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-09-20 | $73.32 | $73,383,876,360 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-09-21 | $73.31 | $73,368,254,091 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-09-22 | $73.31 | $73,368,254,091 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-09-23 | $73.31 | $73,368,254,091 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-09-24 | $73.31 | $73,368,254,091 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-09-25 | $72.76 | $72,912,790,686 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-09-26 | $72.76 | $72,912,790,686 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-09-27 | $72.76 | $72,912,790,686 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-09-28 | $72.76 | $72,912,790,686 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-09-29 | $72.75 | $72,888,933,492 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-09-30 | $72.75 | $72,888,933,492 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-10-01 | $72.57 | $72,848,844,692 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-10-02 | $72.46 | $72,870,384,165 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-10-03 | $72.44 | $72,925,436,797 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-10-04 | $72.44 | $72,925,436,797 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-10-05 | $72.30 | $72,925,436,797 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-10-06 | $72.15 | $72,929,445,387 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-10-07 | $72.16 | $72,751,809,298 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-10-08 | $72.16 | $72,751,809,298 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-10-09 | $72.28 | $72,754,068,833 | 18 / 15 |
| 2026-10-10 | $72.28 | $72,754,068,833 | 18 / 15 |
| 2026-10-11 | $72.15 | $72,781,230,350 | 18 / 15 |
| 2026-10-12 | $72.15 | $72,781,230,350 | 18 / 15 |
| 2026-10-13 | $72.15 | $72,781,230,350 | 18 / 15 |
| 2026-10-14 | $72.87 | $73,328,776,081 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-10-15 | $73.56 | $73,699,307,073 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-10-16 | $73.85 | $73,765,456,280 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-10-17 | $73.85 | $73,765,456,280 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-10-18 | $73.85 | $73,765,456,280 | 19 / 16 |
| 2026-10-19 | $74.18 | $73,765,456,280 | 19 / 16 |
| 2026-10-20 | $74.30 | $73,899,419,902 | 19 / 16 |
| 2026-10-21 | $74.30 | $73,899,419,902 | 19 / 15 |
| 2026-10-22 | $74.54 | $74,121,609,896 | 19 / 15 |
| 2026-10-23 | $74.55 | $74,241,186,954 | 19 / 15 |
| 2026-10-24 | $74.51 | $74,244,282,377 | 19 / 15 |
| 2026-10-25 | $74.51 | $74,244,282,377 | 19 / 15 |
| 2026-10-26 | $74.51 | $74,244,282,377 | 19 / 15 |
| 2026-10-27 | $74.51 | $74,244,282,377 | 19 / 15 |
| 2026-10-28 | $74.51 | $74,244,282,377 | 19 / 15 |
| 2026-10-29 | $74.51 | $74,244,282,377 | 19 / 15 |
| 2026-10-30 | $74.51 | $74,244,282,377 | 19 / 15 |
| 2026-10-31 | $74.51 | $74,244,282,377 | 19 / 15 |
| 2026-11-01 | $74.51 | $74,244,282,377 | 19 / 15 |
| 2026-11-02 | $74.51 | $74,244,282,377 | 19 / 15 |
| 2026-11-03 | $74.67 | $74,388,391,861 | 19 / 15 |
| 2026-11-04 | $74.67 | $74,388,391,861 | 19 / 15 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 15 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 8 recorded
1 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.