Goldman Sachs (GS)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$1038.61+0.07%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -8.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -9.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 1.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 28 industry peers
GS — capital allocation — Material Modification to Rights of Security Holders
Dated 2026-07-27
Material Modification to Rights of Security Holders. Upon issuance of the Series AA Preferred Stock (as defined in
Why it matters: The efficiency ratio affects how much money the firm makes. A lower ratio means better cost control.
Worry ifEfficiency ratio drops to below 60% in Q2.
Less concerning ifEfficiency ratio worsens to above 65% in Q2.
Why it matters: A bigger backlog shows future revenue potential. It shows market activity and client needs.
Supportive ifInvestment banking fees backlog grows each quarter.
Worry ifInvestment banking fees backlog shrinks each quarter.
Why it matters: High operating costs may show problems. This could hurt profits.
Worry ifOperating costs were over $10.43 billion in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifOperating costs stay below $10.00 billion in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if Goldman Sachs continues to grow its revenue. This is key for investor confidence.
Supportive ifIn Q3 2026, net revenues are over $20 billion. This shows continued growth.
Worry ifQ3 2026 net revenues fall below $18 billion, suggesting a slowdown.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$123 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $279 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,943 loss on $10,000 · 19.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Higher dividends mean good returns. They also show that management trusts future earnings.
Supportive ifThe quarterly dividend increases by more than 10% from the previous quarter.
Worry ifThe quarterly dividend stays the same or goes down.
Why it matters: Strong capital returns show confidence in financial health. It matches management's plan for capital.
Supportive ifGoldman Sachs reports capital returns over $5 billion in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCapital returns fall below $3 billion in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A higher dividend shows strong returns and trust in future earnings.
Supportive ifThe board declares a dividend higher than $5.00 per share.
Worry ifThe board maintains or lowers the dividend from $5.00 per share.
Why it matters: The FOMC decision may change interest rates and market liquidity. This affects Goldman Sachs.
Watch forFOMC raises interest rates. This leads to more trading and higher revenues.
Also watch forFOMC keeps rates steady or lowers them. This results in less trading and lower revenues.
Why it matters: Good performance here shows the firm can attract and keep client assets. This affects profits.
Supportive ifAsset & Wealth Management revenue grows by more than 15% each year.
Worry ifRevenue growth is less than 5% year-over-year.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth signals a potential slowdown in the financial sector. This could affect investor confidence.
Worry ifQ3 2026 revenue growth falls below 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 2026 revenue growth remains at or above 15% year over year.
Why it matters: This provision shows how Goldman Sachs is managing credit risk and potential loan defaults.
Worry ifQ3 provision for credit losses above $400 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 provision for credit losses below $200 million.
Why it matters: This segment is key to Goldman Sachs' performance. Continued growth signals strong market positioning.
Supportive ifGlobal Banking & Markets revenue exceeds $15.52 billion in Q3 2026.
Worry ifRevenue drops below $12.74 billion, suggesting a decline in market share.
Why it matters: This segment's performance impacts overall profits. Strong growth shows good management.
Supportive ifAsset & Wealth Management revenue exceeds $4.60 billion in Q3 2026.
Worry ifRevenue below $4.08 billion shows possible problems in this segment.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if Goldman Sachs maintains its strong revenue growth. Investors will look for trends in Global Banking & Markets and Asset & Wealth Management.
Watch forEarnings per share (EPS) exceeds $20.98, showing continued strong performance.
Also watch forEPS falls below $17.55, indicating a potential slowdown in growth.