Goosehead Insurance, Inc. (GSHD)
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-09-04
$65.21-2.79%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GSHD
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 9 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $65 GSHD trades at 36× p/e — 2.9× the 12× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $65 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts target $52–$76. Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $82 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $68.50 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $118.32 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $106.08 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $17.90 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Around the middle on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$52.00 – $76.00 (median $68.50) · 8 analysts · as of 2026-07-27
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $25.54 |
| 11.1 |
| 2.31 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $27.98 | 11.2 | 2.51 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $32.41 | 2.9 | 11.26 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $51.49 | 28.4 | 1.81 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $23.65 | 12.4 | 1.91 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $38.84 | 11.1 | 3.51 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $25.56 | 11.2 | 2.29 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $33.99 | 2.9 | 11.81 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $65.20 | 28.4 | 2.29 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $51.37 | 11.1 | 4.64 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $21.34 | 11.2 | 1.91 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $28.39 | 2.9 | 9.86 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $54.45 | 28.4 | 1.91 | Analyst | medium |