Goosehead Insurance, Inc. (GSHD)
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-11-04
$56.88+0.94%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GSHD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -9.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 19.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 28.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers
GSHD — CEO transition
Dated 2026-07-22
CEO — Mark Miller: Mark Miller is retiring as CEO, and Mark Jones, Jr. will succeed him.
Why it matters: The platform now supports multiple auto carriers and homeowners products in Texas. Broader use would show progress on digital sales.
Supportive ifGoosehead names a new state or product where Digital Agent 2.0 can bind policies.
Worry ifThe next company update reports no new state or product, or says the launch was delayed.
Why it matters: Core revenue grew 10% in Q2, below Q1's 15%. Growth above 10% would show that the slowdown has stopped.
Supportive ifQ3 core revenue grows more than 10% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 core revenue grows less than 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Renewal policies helped drive core revenue, and retention rose from 85% in Q1 to 86% in Q2. A drop below 85% would put that support at risk.
Worry ifQ3 client retention falls below 85%.
Less concerning ifQ3 client retention is 85% or higher.
Why it matters: Operating cash flow was $15.9 million in Q2, down from $28.9 million a year earlier. Another drop would add to the cash flow concern.
Worry ifQ3 cash from operations is under $15.9 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 cash from operating activities is at least $15.9 million.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$278 on $10,000 · ±2.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $687 loss on $10,000 · 6.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,614 loss on $10,000 · 56.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Management set a 12% to 20% growth range for written premiums. The latest quarter grew 14%. A result below the range would weaken the growth picture.
Worry ifQ3 total written premiums grow less than 12% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 total written premiums grow at least 12% year over year.