Goosehead Insurance, Inc. (GSHD)
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-09-04
$65.21-2.79%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GSHD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 0.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 16.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 16.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 13 industry peers
GSHD — CEO transition
Dated 2026-07-22
CEO — Mark Miller: Mark Miller is retiring as CEO, and Mark Jones, Jr. will succeed him.
Why it matters: More agents can lead to higher sales and revenue growth. A decrease may signal challenges.
Supportive ifCorporate agent headcount increases by more than 13% year over year in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCorporate agent headcount increases by less than 13% year over year in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: If the margin drops, it may mean costs are rising. This can hurt profits. Keeping margins steady is important for investor trust.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is at or above 30%.
Less concerning ifEBITDA margin is below 30%.
Why it matters: A decline may mean higher costs and lower profits. This can hurt investor trust.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin falls below 31% in Q3.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA margin remains at or above 31% in Q3.
Why it matters: Earnings per share growth indicates strong profitability. A beat would show continued strength.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 earnings per share reported above $0.20.
Worry ifQ2 2026 earnings per share reported below $0.20.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$278 on $10,000 · ±2.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $668 loss on $10,000 · 6.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,927 loss on $10,000 · 59.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Progress in AI could make things work better. It can also improve client experience.
Supportive ifManagement shares updates on AI use and how it helps the business.
Worry ifManagement does not talk about AI use or its benefits during the earnings call.
Why it matters: More policies in force show strong customer loyalty and growth for Goosehead.
Supportive ifPolicies in force increase over 14% year over year.
Worry ifPolicies in force increase less than 14% year over year.
Why it matters: The new CEO's approach could affect growth and operational focus.
Watch forNew CEO Mark Jones, Jr. outlines a clear growth strategy that aligns with current priorities.
Also watch forNew CEO Mark Jones, Jr. fails to communicate a clear strategy or makes significant changes to existing priorities.
Why it matters: Cash flow from operations is crucial for funding growth. A decline could indicate financial strain.
Worry ifCash flow from operations reported below $22.87 million in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifCash flow from operations reported at $22.87 million or higher in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A drop means it may be hard to make money. This can hurt investor trust.
Worry ifQ2 net income margin reported below 9%.
Less concerning ifQ2 net income margin reported at or above 10%.
Why it matters: John Martin's plans may change financial strategy and operations. This is important after his new role.
Watch forA press release shares new plans from the CFO.
Also watch forNo updates or changes in strategy will be announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: If it falls below 12%, there may be problems with policy sales and keeping customers.
Worry ifQ3 written premiums growth reported below 12% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 written premiums growth reported above 20% year over year.
Why it matters: Reduced buybacks could signal less confidence in cash flow and future growth.
Worry ifShare repurchases drop below $20 million in a quarter.
Less concerning ifShare repurchases exceed $40 million in a quarter.
Why it matters: More cash flow helps growth plans and shows financial strength. It matches management's goals.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations reported above $25M.
Worry ifCash flow from operations reported below $22M.
Why it matters: This would signal a slowdown in growth, which is key for investor confidence.
Worry ifQ3 total revenue growth is reported below 12% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 total revenue growth meets or exceeds 12% year over year.
Why it matters: A decline shows less demand and retention. This can hurt future revenue.
Worry ifPolicies in force growth reported below 14% year over year.
Less concerning ifPolicies in force growth remains at or above 14% year over year.
Why it matters: A continued decline may limit investments. It can also affect growth plans.
Worry ifCash from operations is less than $15 million.
Less concerning ifCash from operations goes up to $15 million or more.
Why it matters: Updates could enhance client experience and drive future growth.
Supportive ifNew features for the Digital Agent 2.0 platform will be shared soon.
Worry ifNo updates or delays in the rollout of the Digital Agent 2.0 platform.