Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Goosehead Insurance, Inc. (GSHD)
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-11-04
$56.88+0.94%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.68 → 2.62 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for GSHD yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash flow from operations growth to support business expansion | Cash from operations improved to $22.9 million in Q1 2026, supporting growth. | Intact | Cash flow from operations falls below $22.9M run-rate | Cash from operations: $15.926M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Cash from operations at least $22.9M run-rate. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Jul 23, 202615,926,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 9, 2026
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-oriented insurance business, not a turnaround: recent revenue and operating income trends are improving. The long-term thesis is mildly favorable, but remains on watch because recent financial performance trails its industry cohort and risk is elevated.
GSHD is expensive versus peers, with a 2.21-times peer premium, and the valuation evidence points to a re-rating as a key driver. The expectations gap is negative, but confidence in that estimate is low; the priced-in signal is described as justified, with low fragility.
Near term, revenue growth and operating profitability have progressed, while operating cash flow remains variable and needs watching. Management recently raised guidance, and the latest quarter showed revenue growth, but erratic earnings surprises and weaker results relative to the industry leave room for execution risk.
Over the next few quarters, maintaining guidance after the recent increase matters because a reversal could damage management credibility. The thesis also depends on cash flow improving and on the rate and sector backdrop: rate cuts could weigh on Financials, while continued strong results from sector bellwethers could support sector momentum.
For the 1-to-3-year view, GSHD has evidence of growth and improving profitability, but its expensive valuation and uneven relative performance keep the thesis conditional on steady execution. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Operating income improvement to support profitability |
| Operating income rose to $15 million in Q1 2026 from $6.6 million a year earlier. |
| Improving |
| Operating income fails to sustain improvement above $15M run-rate |
Operating income: $26.592M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating income at least $15M in Q1 2026 equivalent run-rate. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Jul 23, 202626,592,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Operating income rose from $15.7 million in 2025-Q2 to $26.6 million in 2026-Q2, showing significant improvement. Adjusted EBITDA margin increased from 31% to 33% over the same period. Management's focus on profitability and expense management is reflected in these improving financial metrics, indicating delivering progress. Delivery assessment Oct 20, 2026 |
Organic revenue growth between 10% and 19% in 2026 | A primary condition in Goosehead Insurance, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 10% to 19% YoY growth. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 10% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Total revenues grew from $75.6 million in 2025-Q1 to $113.4 million in 2026-Q2, a 21% increase year-over-year in the latest quarter. Core revenues also grew 10% in 2026-Q2 compared to prior year. Management consistently emphasizes revenue growth driven by policy renewals, new policies, and agent productivity, and the financials show delivering growth. Delivery assessment Oct 20, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.75 → $2.62 · observed estimates
$0.49B → $0.49B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.75 | $490,264,560 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.72 | $491,697,234 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.71 | $492,242,688 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.71 | $492,242,688 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.72 | $492,256,960 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.70 | $492,922,340 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.70 | $492,922,340 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.70 | $492,922,340 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.68 | $492,931,426 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.68 | $492,931,426 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.70 | $492,922,340 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.68 | $492,931,426 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.70 | $492,922,340 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.68 | $492,931,426 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.68 | $492,931,426 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.70 | $492,922,340 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.70 | $492,922,340 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.68 | $492,931,426 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.68 | $492,931,426 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.70 | $492,922,340 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.68 | $492,931,426 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.68 | $492,931,426 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.68 | $492,931,426 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.68 | $492,931,426 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.68 | $492,931,426 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.68 | $492,931,426 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.68 | $492,931,426 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.68 | $492,931,426 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.68 | $492,931,426 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.68 | $492,931,426 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.68 | $492,931,426 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.68 | $492,931,426 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.68 | $492,931,426 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.68 | $492,931,426 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.68 | $492,931,426 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.68 | $493,903,808 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.68 | $493,903,808 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.68 | $493,903,808 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.68 | $493,903,808 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.68 | $493,903,808 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.68 | $493,903,808 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.68 | $493,903,808 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.68 | $493,903,808 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.68 | $493,903,808 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.68 | $493,903,808 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.68 | $493,903,808 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.68 | $493,903,808 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.68 | $493,903,808 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.68 | $493,903,808 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.68 | $493,903,808 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.68 | $493,903,808 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.68 | $493,903,808 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.68 | $493,903,808 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.68 | $493,903,808 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.68 | $493,903,808 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.68 | $493,903,808 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.68 | $493,903,808 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.68 | $493,903,808 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.68 | $493,903,808 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.68 | $493,903,808 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.68 | $493,903,808 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.68 | $493,903,808 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.68 | $493,903,808 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.68 | $493,903,808 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.68 | $493,903,808 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.68 | $493,903,808 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.68 | $493,903,808 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.69 | $493,919,708 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.68 | $492,962,141 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.67 | $493,195,474 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.68 | $493,195,474 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.68 | $493,195,474 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.68 | $493,195,474 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.68 | $493,195,474 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.66 | $491,823,424 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.66 | $491,823,424 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.66 | $491,823,424 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.66 | $491,823,424 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.66 | $491,823,424 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.66 | $491,823,424 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.64 | $491,823,424 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.64 | $491,332,841 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.64 | $491,349,508 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.64 | $491,349,508 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.64 | $491,349,508 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.64 | $491,349,508 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.64 | $491,349,508 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.64 | $491,349,508 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.64 | $491,349,508 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.64 | $491,349,508 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.64 | $491,349,508 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.62 | $490,682,841 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.62 | $490,682,841 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.62 | $490,682,841 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.62 | $490,682,841 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.62 | $490,682,841 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.62 | $490,682,841 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.62 | $490,682,841 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.62 | $490,682,841 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.62 | $491,590,736 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.62 | $491,590,736 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.62 | $491,590,736 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.62 | $491,590,736 | 8 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 4 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.