Goosehead Insurance, Inc. (GSHD)
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-09-04
$65.21-2.79%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Goosehead Insurance grows revenue about 10% to 19% in 2026. Operating income rose to $15 million in Q1 2026 from $6.6 million a year earlier. Cash from operations improved to $22.9 million in Q1 2026, supporting growth. The company has a strong position in personal lines insurance in the US.
Revenue growth could slow below 10% if market conditions worsen. Operating income gains may stall if costs rise or competition intensifies. Cash flow might weaken if new business growth slows or expenses increase.
The stock price is about 21% below our estimate of intrinsic value and 7% above the Street median target. Analysts expect roughly 18% revenue growth, which aligns with management's guidance. Our view is consistent with these growth expectations.
Breaks if: Cash flow from operations falls below $22.9M run-rate
Breaks if: Operating income fails to sustain improvement above $15M run-rate
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on revenue growth and profitability. The current thesis state is cautious, as recent financial performance has not kept pace with industry peers.
The market appears to have priced in a justified valuation, though it is considered expensive compared to peers. There is a low expectations gap, indicating that investors may not anticipate significant surprises in the near term.
Management is on track with priorities to increase revenue growth and enhance profitability, as evidenced by recent financial improvements. However, cash flow from operations shows some variability, which is a point to monitor.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like MRSH, AON, and AJG. If these companies continue to perform well, GSHD could benefit from sector momentum, but any negative guidance from them could pose risks.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The reason to own GSHD has diminished due to recent financial performance. It fell from the robust 51st to the 46th percentile of its sector. This change indicates a decline in the company's standing among its peers. However, the latest earnings beat provides some support for the thesis.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 10% in FY26
Overall, GSHD's trajectory is cautiously optimistic, but investors should stay alert to sector developments and management execution. Not investment advice.