Garrett Motion, Inc. (GTX)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$27.97+2.34%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — EPS of at least $1.6 in 2026: EPS $1.03 vs $1.60 target.
Garrett Motion aims to grow revenue to $3.6-$3.9 billion in 2026 and $5 billion by 2030. Profit and free cash flow targets for 2026 are $1.6 EPS and $405 million FCF. The company has a strong product position in turbocharger and electric booster technologies. Recent earnings beats support ongoing execution.
Leadership departures may hurt strategy execution. The auto parts sector faces headwinds, and growth could slow. Capital obligations raise financial risks. Revenue growth below 4% would be concerning.
The market expects about 4.5% revenue growth next year and values the stock slightly below consensus estimates. Our view aligns with this moderate growth outlook but sees risks from sector headwinds and leadership changes.
Breaks if: Free cash flow falls below $355 million in FY26
Breaks if: Revenue fails to trend toward $5 billion by 2030
Breaks if: Loss of key executives leads to strategy disruption
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a medium confidence level. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent earnings beats and management's revenue growth targets.
The market seems to have a neutral view on GTX's valuation, with a slight premium compared to peers. There is an expectations gap indicating that the market is not overly optimistic or pessimistic about future performance.
Management is on track to increase revenue to $3.7-$3.9 billion in 2026, although the long-term goal of $5 billion by 2030 shows mixed progress. The near-term risk of missing earnings is low, but the industry has a history of misses, which could impact GTX.
The thesis hinges on GTX maintaining its revenue growth trajectory and managing costs effectively. Additionally, external factors like inflation and sector performance from peers will play a significant role in shaping future outcomes.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this improved outlook. There are no new threats impacting the thesis.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: EPS falls below $1.48 in FY26
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $3.6 billion in FY26
Over the next 1 to 3 years, GTX's performance will depend on its ability to execute on growth targets amidst sector challenges. Not investment advice.