Garrett Motion, Inc. (GTX)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$27.97+2.34%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GTX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -4.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.2% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 10.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers
GTX — credit agreement
Dated 2026-05-20
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On May 18, 2026, Garrett Motion Inc. (the “Company”) entered into Amendment No. 2 (the “Second Amendment”) to that certain Amended and Restated Credit Agreement, dated as of January 30, 2025, by and among the Company, Garrett Motion Holdings Inc., Garrett LX I S.à r.l., Garrett Motion Sàrl, the lenders and issuing banks party thereto, and JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as administrative agent (as amended, the “Credit Agreement,” and as further amended by…
Why it matters: Paying off debt shows financial strength. It also helps with cash for growth.
Supportive ifGarrett announces further repayments on its term loan beyond the recent $50M.
Worry ifNo additional repayments are made on the term loan in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Updates might show that management trusts cash flow. They may also signal a good plan for spending.
Supportive ifAn announcement about more share buybacks or new buybacks.
Worry ifNo news on the share buyback program or a cut in capacity.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow helps with investments and returns for shareholders.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations exceeds $150 million in Q3.
Worry ifCash flow from operations falls below $100 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Securing new contracts would support growth in a key segment and validate strategy.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of at least two new turbo wins in commercial vehicles.
Worry ifNo new turbo wins announced in commercial vehicles.
Why it matters: This would signal a slowdown in demand and could impact the full-year outlook.
Worry ifQ3 net sales growth reported below 1% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 net sales growth reported above 1% year over year.
Why it matters: A lower margin may mean higher costs or less pricing power. This can hurt profits.
Worry ifAdjusted EBIT margin was below 15% for Q3.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBIT margin was above 15% for Q3.
Why it matters: Getting new programs would help revenue growth. It shows there is market demand.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of at least two new turbo program wins in Q3.
Worry ifNo new turbo program wins announced in Q3.
Why it matters: A steady dividend builds trust with shareholders. It shows the company is financially healthy.
Supportive ifDeclaration of a cash dividend of $0.08 per share in Q3.
Worry ifNo dividend declared in Q3.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$173 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $319 loss on $10,000 · 3.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,868 loss on $10,000 · 28.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.