Garrett Motion, Inc. (GTX)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$19.77-4.81%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GTX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -25.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 29.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 19 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
GTX — officer change
Dated 2026-10-28
Director — Steven Tesoriere: The filing discloses the resignation of a director, which is a genuine departure from the board, though the absence of disputes suggests a neutral event.
Why it matters: Cash flow rose in Q3, but Q2 cash flow faced a large working-capital drag. The full-year result tests whether cash generation holds.
Supportive if2026 adjusted free cash flow reaches at least $430 million, the midpoint of guidance.
Worry if2026 adjusted free cash flow falls below the guided low end of $410 million.
Why it matters: Q3 industrial growth was stronger than Garrett had planned. More growth would back its push into industrial markets.
Supportive ifQ4 commercial vehicle and industrial sales rise from a year ago. Management reports more industrial growth.
Worry ifQ4 commercial vehicle and industrial sales fall from the prior year. Or, management says industrial growth slowed.
Why it matters: Garrett reaffirmed its 2026 outlook after Q3. Hitting the midpoint would support its growth and profit story.
Supportive ifFull-year net sales reach at least $3.80 billion and adjusted EBIT reaches at least $580 million.
Worry ifFull-year net sales fall below $3.75 billion or adjusted EBIT falls below $570 million.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$165 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $375 loss on $10,000 · 3.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,543 loss on $10,000 · 45.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.