Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Getty Realty Corp. (GTY)
NYSEReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
$28.73-0.31%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.43 → 1.44 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for GTY yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain or increase dividend per share at or above $0.48 quarterly | Profit per share is rising, with guidance at $2.51 for 2026. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.45 in any quarter of FY26 | Dividend per share: $0.48 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=0.48 USD per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 22, 20260.485 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
GTY is a real estate investment trust focused on convenience and automotive retail properties, with a multi-year view that depends on portfolio growth and higher adjusted funds from operations (AFFO), a measure of cash earnings. The thesis is intact after recent performance improved, but management execution and capital allocation remain mixed.
GTY is described as cheap versus peers, and the priced-in assessment says current expectations are justified with low fragility. The evidence does not show the market assuming a full set of strong execution and favorable sector conditions.
Near term, recent results support the business setup: third-quarter AFFO per share rose year over year, and management raised its 2026 AFFO guidance. Investment activity and rental-property revenue also increased, though delivery on balance-sheet flexibility still needs to be assessed; a guidance reversal would damage credibility.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis hinges on continued AFFO delivery, disciplined funding of property investments, and whether management sustains its raised guidance. Fed rate cuts could help the rate-sensitive real estate sector, while weakness among sector peers could remove that support.
The multi-year view remains intact, with recent operating progress offset by mixed execution evidence and meaningful sensitivity to guidance and sector conditions. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Getty Realty Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=2.51 USD per share. |
| Intact |
| EPS guidance falls below $2.40 for FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income at or above $38M in Q1 2026 | Operating income improved from $26.4M to $38.3M in one year. | Intact | Operating income falls below $30M in any quarter of FY26 | Operating income: $38.86M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=38 million USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 22, 202638,860,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth at or above 8% annually | A primary condition in Getty Realty Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=8% YoY. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 5% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 13.31% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=8% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 22, 202613.309708 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.61 → $1.44 · observed estimates
$0.26B → $0.27B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.61 | $256,242,827 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.97 | $255,560,880 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.97 | $257,880,880 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.61 | $256,242,827 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.97 | $257,690,360 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.97 | $257,690,360 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.97 | $257,690,360 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.97 | $257,690,360 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.62 | $256,558,944 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.97 | $256,663,650 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.62 | $256,558,944 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.97 | $256,663,650 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.97 | $256,663,650 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.97 | $256,663,650 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.62 | $256,558,944 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.97 | $256,663,650 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.97 | $256,663,650 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.97 | $256,663,650 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.97 | $256,663,650 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.62 | $256,558,944 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.62 | $256,558,944 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.62 | $256,558,944 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.62 | $256,558,944 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.62 | $256,558,944 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.62 | $256,558,944 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.62 | $256,558,944 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.45 | $254,546,412 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.45 | $254,546,412 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.45 | $254,546,412 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.45 | $254,546,412 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.45 | $254,546,412 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.45 | $254,546,412 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.45 | $254,546,412 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.45 | $254,546,412 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.45 | $254,546,412 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.45 | $254,546,412 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.45 | $254,546,412 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.45 | $254,546,412 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.45 | $254,546,412 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.45 | $254,546,412 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.45 | $254,546,412 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.45 | $254,546,412 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.45 | $254,546,412 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.45 | $254,546,412 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.45 | $254,546,412 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.45 | $254,546,412 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.45 | $254,546,412 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.45 | $254,546,412 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.45 | $254,546,412 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.45 | $254,546,412 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.45 | $254,546,412 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.45 | $254,546,412 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.45 | $254,546,412 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.45 | $254,546,412 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.45 | $254,546,412 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.45 | $254,546,412 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.45 | $254,546,412 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.45 | $254,546,412 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.45 | $254,546,412 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.45 | $254,546,412 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.45 | $254,546,412 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.45 | $254,546,412 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.43 | $255,715,036 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.43 | $255,715,036 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.43 | $255,715,036 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.43 | $255,715,036 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.43 | $255,715,036 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.43 | $255,715,036 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.43 | $255,715,036 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.43 | $256,286,464 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.43 | $256,286,464 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.43 | $257,149,208 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.43 | $257,149,208 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.43 | $257,149,208 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.43 | $257,149,208 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.43 | $257,149,208 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.43 | $259,273,874 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.43 | $259,273,874 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.43 | $259,273,874 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.43 | $259,273,874 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.43 | $259,273,874 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.43 | $259,273,874 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.43 | $259,273,874 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.43 | $259,273,874 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.43 | $259,273,874 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.43 | $261,181,321 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.43 | $261,181,321 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.43 | $261,181,321 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.43 | $261,181,321 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.43 | $261,181,321 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.43 | $263,424,177 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.43 | $263,424,177 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.43 | $263,424,177 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.43 | $263,646,143 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.43 | $263,646,143 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.43 | $263,646,143 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.43 | $263,646,143 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.43 | $263,646,143 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.44 | $265,078,429 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.44 | $265,078,429 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.44 | $265,078,429 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.44 | $265,078,429 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.44 | $265,078,429 | 2 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.