Getty Realty Corp. (GTY)
NYSEReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$32.53-0.37%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GTY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 8.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 1.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 21 industry peers
GTY — Principal Accounting Officer transition
Dated 2026-08-20
Chief Accounting Officer — Eugene Shnayderman: The Chief Accounting Officer is departing with a named successor (Nicole Rapport) and a structured separation agreement, indicating an orderly succession rather than a sudden loss of leadership.
Why it matters: Earnings guidance shows Getty Realty will keep growing and staying stable.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 earnings report confirms AFFO guidance of $2.50 to $2.52 per share.
Worry ifQ2 2026 earnings report shows AFFO below $2.50 per share.
Why it matters: Q3 results will show how strong earnings growth and investment plans are.
Watch forQ3 earnings show AFFO growth greater than 5% year-over-year.
Also watch forQ3 earnings show AFFO growth of less than 5% year-over-year.
Why it matters: A higher dividend shows strong cash flow and a focus on shareholder returns.
Supportive ifDividend per share increases beyond $0.485.
Worry ifDividend per share remains at or below $0.485.
Why it matters: Updates will show if Getty can keep growing with new acquisitions.
Supportive ifLook for news about new acquisitions from the $125 million pipeline.
Worry ifNo new investments can lead to stagnation.
Why it matters: Completing this pipeline shows Getty wants to grow in convenience and car retail.
Supportive ifGetty completes at least $95 million in new purchases or projects.
Worry ifThe investment pipeline is not used or falls below $95 million.
Why it matters: Lower lease expirations reduce risk and support stable cash flow.
Supportive ifLease expirations are less than 2.5% of total annual base rent.
Worry ifLease expirations are more than 5% of total annual base rent.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows Getty Realty is confident in its cash flow. This can reassure investors.
Supportive ifDividend payment remains unchanged for the next quarter.
Worry ifDividend payment is cut or suspended.
Why it matters: Strong growth in operating income shows Getty is working to be more efficient. It means they are managing costs well.
Supportive ifOperating income growth is over 40% year over year. This shows they manage costs strongly.
Worry ifOperating income growth is under 20% year over year. This suggests they may have inefficiencies.
Why it matters: Stable or rising dividends show good cash flow and care for shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend per share increases from $0.485, reflecting strong cash flow.
Worry ifIf the dividend per share drops below $0.47, it may mean cash flow problems.
Why it matters: Lease extensions help keep revenue steady and lower risk from tenant changes.
Supportive ifThey announced more lease extensions worth over $10 million in ABR.
Worry ifNo lease extensions announced, or extensions totaling less than $5 million in ABR.
Why it matters: Stable or higher dividends show good financial health. This can bring in more investors.
Supportive ifLook for news about a dividend increase or stable payments next quarter.
Worry ifAnnouncement of a dividend cut or no increase in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising guidance shows strong revenue growth. It also boosts investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings guidance remains at or above $2.50 per share.
Worry ifQ2 earnings guidance is lowered below $2.50 per share.
Why it matters: An increase in AFFO guidance shows management's confidence in earnings growth. It signals strong performance and could boost investor sentiment.
Supportive ifManagement raises 2026 AFFO guidance to over $2.54 per share.
Worry ifManagement keeps or lowers 2026 AFFO guidance to under $2.52 per share.
Why it matters: A growing investment pipeline shows strong future growth. It shows Getty's plan to expand.
Supportive ifThe investment pipeline is more than $100 million.
Worry ifThe investment pipeline is less than $95 million.
Why it matters: Slower rental income growth may show weaker demand for properties. This could hurt future earnings.
Worry ifRental income growth is above 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifRental income growth falls below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Higher debt levels may raise worries about financial stability. This could limit Getty's growth investments.
Worry ifTotal debt stays at or below $1.1 billion.
Less concerning ifTotal debt goes above $1.1 billion.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$66 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $151 loss on $10,000 · 1.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,177 loss on $10,000 · 11.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.