Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastructure Capital, Inc. (HASI)
NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-04
$39.68-1.73%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.33 → 3.33 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for HASI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Redeem high-cost debt and optimize debt maturity | The company improves capital use by cutting costly debt. | Improving | High-cost debt remains or grows by 2028 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is an income-focused financial business with a growth thesis tied to putting new capital to work at strong yields. The thesis has improved from mixed to mildly favorable, but remains on watch because recent financial performance is weak and execution quality is fragile.
HASI trades at a 1.06 premium to peers, and the valuation is characterized as expensive. The priced-in assessment says that valuation is justified, with an expectations gap of -0.15, but confidence in that assessment is medium.
Near term, management is delivering on stated priorities: new investment yields stayed above 10.5%, guidance was raised, and quarterly dividends were maintained. However, recent financial performance trails the industry cohort, earnings quality is fragile, and peers have missed recently, so execution remains a watch point despite the low stated miss risk.
The multi-year thesis depends on maintaining double-digit yields, meeting the higher earnings guidance, and keeping capital efficient while maintaining the dividend. A guidance reversal after the recent raise would damage credibility; rate cuts are also flagged as a sector headwind, while continued strength from financial-sector bellwethers could support sector momentum.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, HASI’s thesis rests on turning stronger new investment activity and raised guidance into more consistent results. The expensive valuation leaves limited room for execution to weaken, while the evidence remains mixed. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastructure Capital, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Stable dividend payout ongoing. |
| Intact |
| Dividend payout is cut or suspended |
Dividends paid: $55.84M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Stable dividend payout ongoing. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Date unavailable55,840,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Adjusted EPS of $3.55 by 2028 | A primary condition in Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastructure Capital, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 3.55 USD per share. | Intact | Adjusted EPS falls below $3.0 by 2028 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Raising guidance for Adjusted EPS to a range of $3.55 to $3.65, up from $3.50 to $3.60, and maintaining guidance for Adjusted ROE of at least 17.0% in 2028.” “Lipson. “Our outlook for new investment volumes, expanding investment margins enabled by steadily improving debt spreads, and growing fee income from our co-investment vehicles allows us to increase guidance for 2028 Adjusted EPS to $3.55 - $3.65 from $3.50 - $3.60.”” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Double-digit yields on new portfolio investments | It keeps double-digit yields on new assets. | Intact | New asset yields drop below 10% | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Issued no new shares through our ATM year-to-date and continue to expect minimal ATM share issuances in 2026 based on current outlook for $2-3 billion in new balance sheet/CCH1 investments this year.” ““In addition, with no shares issued through our ATM so far this year, we remain on track for minimal ATM share issuances in 2026, which supports further growth in our Adjusted ROE from more than 15% in the first half of 2026 to our guidance of more than 17% in 2028.”” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.30 → $3.33 · observed estimates
$0.52B → $0.52B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.30 | $517,503,502 | 8 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.30 | $215,666,000 | 14 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.30 | $215,666,000 | 14 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.30 | $517,503,479 | 8 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.30 | $517,503,479 | 8 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.30 | $517,503,479 | 8 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.30 | $215,666,000 | 14 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.30 | $517,503,479 | 8 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.30 | $517,503,479 | 8 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.30 | $215,666,000 | 14 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.30 | $215,666,000 | 14 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.30 | $215,666,000 | 14 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.30 | $517,503,479 | 8 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.30 | $215,666,000 | 14 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.30 | $517,503,479 | 8 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.32 | $194,666,000 | 13 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.32 | $194,666,000 | 13 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.30 | $517,503,479 | 8 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.35 | $208,000,000 | 13 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.30 | $517,503,479 | 8 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.30 | $517,503,479 | 8 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.30 | $517,503,479 | 8 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.30 | $517,503,479 | 8 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.30 | $517,503,479 | 8 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.30 | $517,503,479 | 6 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.30 | $517,503,479 | 6 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.31 | $513,753,634 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.33 | $518,325,063 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.33 | $518,325,063 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.33 | $518,325,063 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.33 | $518,325,063 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.33 | $518,325,063 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.33 | $518,325,063 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.33 | $518,325,063 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.33 | $518,325,063 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.33 | $516,653,634 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.33 | $516,653,634 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.33 | $516,653,634 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.33 | $516,653,634 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.33 | $516,653,634 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.33 | $518,527,705 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.33 | $518,527,705 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.33 | $517,702,706 | 5 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.33 | $517,702,706 | 5 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.33 | $517,702,706 | 5 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.33 | $517,702,706 | 5 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.33 | $517,702,706 | 5 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.33 | $516,055,859 | 5 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.33 | $516,055,859 | 5 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.33 | $516,055,859 | 6 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.33 | $516,055,859 | 6 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.33 | $516,055,859 | 6 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.33 | $516,055,859 | 6 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.33 | $516,055,859 | 6 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.33 | $516,055,859 | 6 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.33 | $516,055,859 | 6 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.33 | $516,055,859 | 6 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.33 | $516,055,859 | 6 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.33 | $516,055,859 | 6 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.33 | $516,055,859 | 6 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.33 | $516,055,859 | 6 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.33 | $516,055,859 | 6 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.33 | $516,055,859 | 6 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.33 | $516,055,859 | 6 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.33 | $516,055,859 | 6 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.33 | $516,055,859 | 6 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.33 | $516,055,859 | 6 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.33 | $516,055,859 | 6 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.33 | $516,055,859 | 6 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.33 | $518,389,192 | 6 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.33 | $518,389,192 | 6 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.33 | $520,919,206 | 6 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.33 | $520,919,206 | 6 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.33 | $520,919,206 | 6 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.33 | $520,919,206 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.33 | $520,919,206 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.33 | $520,919,206 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.33 | $520,919,206 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.33 | $520,933,492 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.33 | $520,933,492 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.33 | $520,933,492 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.33 | $520,933,492 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.33 | $520,933,492 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.33 | $520,933,492 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.33 | $520,933,492 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.33 | $520,933,492 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.33 | $520,933,492 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.33 | $520,933,492 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.33 | $520,933,492 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.33 | $520,933,492 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.33 | $520,933,492 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.33 | $520,933,492 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.33 | $520,933,492 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.33 | $520,933,492 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.33 | $520,933,492 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.33 | $520,933,492 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.33 | $520,933,492 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.33 | $520,933,492 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.33 | $521,597,503 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.33 | $521,597,503 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.33 | $521,597,503 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.33 | $521,597,503 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.33 | $521,597,503 | 6 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.