Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastructure Capital, Inc. (HASI)
NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-09-04
$38.34-3.77%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HASI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -3.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 12.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 35 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
HASI — M&A activity — Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement
Dated 2026-07-20
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement. On July 14, 2026, in connection with the Company’s entry into the New Credit Agreement described in
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could signal broader challenges for Hannon Armstrong.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below its median level.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median level.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company can keep paying its dividend after losses.
Watch forThe earnings report shows net income is back to positive or the dividend is $0.425.
Also watch forEarnings report shows continued net income losses and dividend cut.
Why it matters: Confirming the ROE guidance shows trust in future profits.
Supportive ifManagement confirms Adjusted ROE guidance of at least 17% for 2028.
Worry ifManagement revises down the ROE guidance below 17% for 2028.
Why it matters: A payout ratio above 50% could signal reduced capital for growth. This may concern investors about future dividends.
Worry ifDividend payout ratio reported above 50% in the next earnings report.
Less concerning ifDividend payout ratio reported below 50% in the next earnings report.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$111 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $288 loss on $10,000 · 2.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,602 loss on $10,000 · 16.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The raised guidance for Adjusted EPS shows strong earnings and growth.
Supportive ifManagement confirms Adjusted EPS guidance in the range of $3.55 to $3.65 for 2028.
Worry ifManagement lowers the Adjusted EPS guidance to less than $3.50.
Why it matters: More managed assets show strong investment activity and trust in the market.
Supportive ifManaged assets grow by more than 15% year-over-year in Q2.
Worry ifManaged assets grow less than 10% year-over-year in Q2.
Why it matters: A rise in GAAP net income shows better overall financial health.
Supportive ifGAAP net income turns positive in Q2 2026.
Worry ifGAAP net income remains negative in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Slower growth in Managed Assets may lead to less investment activity. This can lower market demand.
Worry ifManaged Assets grow at or above 20% each year.
Less concerning ifManaged Assets growth drops below 20% each year.
Why it matters: Better cash flow helps growth and stability. Ongoing improvement is a good sign.
Supportive ifCash from operations exceeds $68 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifCash from operations drops below $68 million.
Why it matters: The dividend payout shows that management cares about returns for shareholders. This is important during tough times.
Worry ifManagement confirms the dividend payout remains at $0.425 per share.
Less concerning ifManagement announces a cut to the dividend payout in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: This issuance can change capital costs and how money is used.
Watch forManagement says they are using capital better. Costs are lower after issuing the notes.
Also watch forManagement says costs are higher. They face challenges with capital efficiency after the issuance.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if HASI maintains growth in Adjusted EPS and ROE.
Watch forAdjusted EPS for Q2 2026 is over $0.90. This shows strong performance.
Also watch forAdjusted EPS for Q2 2026 falls below $0.80, suggesting weakening growth.
Why it matters: Maintaining double-digit yields is key for growth. A drop signals potential margin pressure.
Worry ifNew asset yields remain above 10.5% for the next quarter.
Less concerning ifNew asset yields fall below 10.5%.
Why it matters: Updates on the payout ratio show management's trust in cash flow.
Watch forManagement states the payout ratio will be below 50% by 2028.
Also watch forManagement says the payout ratio may go over 50% in 2028.