Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Home Bancorp, Inc. (HBCP)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$60.71-1.94%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
6.32 → 6.05 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for HBCP yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain quarterly dividend at $0.31 per share | Home Bancorp pays a steady quarterly dividend of $0.31 per share. | Intact | dividend per share falls below $0.31 in any quarter | Dividend per share: $0.32 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.31 per share quarterly. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 4, 20260.32 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
HBCP is a smaller-cap bank with a value-oriented, multi-year view, rather than a clear growth or turnaround story. The thesis is marked intact, but confidence in the evidence is low and recent momentum weakened.
The evidence describes HBCP as cheap versus peers, while also tagging expectations as stretched; these signals point in different directions. The expectations gap is 0.13, but the snapshot gives no detail on what specific earnings or growth assumptions are reflected in that gap.
Near term, credit measures weakened: nonperforming assets rose from $39.2 million to $53.7 million, and the provision increased from $762,000 to $1.0 million between the second and third quarters of 2026. Loans and deposits were nearly flat, net interest income was essentially unchanged, and net interest margin narrowed; the company also reported a recent earnings miss and a decline in momentum.
The multi-year view depends in part on whether management can contain problem loans and restore growth while protecting margins. A guidance cut or rate cuts would be unfavorable factors, while continued strong earnings and guidance from financial-sector peers could support sector momentum.
For the next one to three years, the thesis remains intact but faces mixed execution signals, with credit quality and margin pressure as key concerns. The evidence is low confidence, so the case hinges on whether those pressures ease. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
EPS near $5.95 in FY26 and $6.26 in FY27 |
| It maintains stable operating income near $14 million per quarter. |
| Intact |
| EPS falls below $5.95 in FY26 or below $6.26 in FY27 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain operating income near $14.4 million per quarter | It maintains stable operating income near $14 million per quarter. | Intact | operating income falls below $13.8 million in any quarter | Operating income: $12.774M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $13.8 million per quarter. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 19, 202612,774,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$6.32 → $6.05 · observed estimates
$0.17B → $0.17B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $6.33 | $148,650,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $6.33 | $148,650,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $6.33 | $148,650,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $6.33 | $148,650,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $6.33 | $148,650,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $6.33 | $148,650,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $6.33 | $148,650,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $6.33 | $148,650,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $6.33 | $148,650,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $6.33 | $148,650,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $6.33 | $148,650,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $6.33 | $148,650,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $6.33 | $148,650,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $6.32 | $166,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $6.18 | $165,633,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $6.15 | $166,333,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $6.15 | $166,333,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $6.15 | $166,333,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $6.15 | $166,333,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $6.15 | $166,333,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $6.15 | $166,333,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $6.15 | $166,333,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $6.15 | $166,333,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $6.15 | $166,333,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $6.15 | $166,333,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $6.05 | $166,333,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $6.05 | $166,333,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $6.05 | $166,333,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $6.05 | $166,333,333 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.