Home Bancorp, Inc. (HBCP)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$61.91+0.86%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HBCP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -5.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -13.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 7.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 230 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
HBCP — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-19
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On October 19, 2026, the Registrant announced its results of operations for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. A copy of the related press release (the "Press Release") is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference herein. The Press Release attached hereto is being furnished to the SEC and shall not be deemed "filed" for any purpose except as otherwise provided herein.
Why it matters: Core deposits fell by $28.3 million in Q3 after rising by $46.6 million in Q2. A return to growth would support funding stability.
Supportive ifQ4 core deposits rise from the $2.3 billion reported at September 30, 2026.
Worry ifQ4 core deposits fall below the $2.3 billion reported at September 30, 2026.
Why it matters: The board kept the quarterly dividend at $0.32 per share. The payment tests whether the company maintains this capital return.
Watch forThe company pays $0.32 per share on November 13, 2026, as announced.
Also watch forThe company delays, changes, or does not make the announced $0.32 payment.
Why it matters: Nonperforming assets rose to $53.7 million in Q3, up from $39.2 million in Q2. Another rise would point to more trouble in the loan book.
Worry ifQ4 nonperforming assets top $53.7 million or 1.49% of total assets.
Less concerning ifQ4 nonperforming assets stay below both $53.7 million and 1.49% of total assets.
Why it matters: Loan charge-offs rose to $586,000 in Q3 from $448,000 in Q2. A further increase would add to the credit strain.
Worry ifQ4 net loan charge-offs exceed $586,000.
Less concerning ifQ4 net loan charge-offs are $586,000 or less.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$70 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $215 loss on $10,000 · 2.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,798 loss on $10,000 · 18.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The margin fell to 4.19% in Q3 as deposit costs rose and some loan interest was reversed. A further drop may pressure earnings.
Worry ifQ4 net interest margin is below 4.19%.
Less concerning ifQ4 net interest margin is 4.19% or higher.