Home Bancorp, Inc. (HBCP)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$70.36+0.64%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HBCP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -2.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -11.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 8.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
HBCP — dividend update
Dated 2026-07-20
Other Events On July 20, 2026, the Registrant announced that its Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend on shares of its common stock of $0.32 per share. The cash dividend will be paid on August 14, 2026 to shareholders of record at the close of business on August 3, 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth signals a weakening sector. This could impact Home Bancorp's performance.
Worry ifRevenue growth remains at or above the median level for the sector.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth drops below its median level for the sector.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising operating income is important for financial health. A drop raises worries.
Supportive ifOperating income reports at or above $14.36 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifOperating income falls below $14.36 million in the next quarter.
Why it matters: The leadership change could impact company strategy and performance. It’s a key focus for investors.
Watch forStakeholders give positive feedback about the new CEO's plans.
Also watch forThere are negative reports about the leadership change. Concerns are growing about its impact.
Why it matters: FOMC decisions can change interest rates and borrowing costs. This affects loan demand.
Watch forLoan demand remains strong post-FOMC meeting on July 29, 2026.
Also watch forLoan demand drops sharply after the FOMC meeting on July 29, 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$80 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $223 loss on $10,000 · 2.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,008 loss on $10,000 · 10.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Slowing loan growth may show less demand. This can hurt overall profits.
Worry ifQ3 loan growth below 1.5% compared to Q2 growth of 1.9%.
Less concerning ifQ3 loan growth at or above 1.5%, indicating continued strong demand.
Why it matters: More nonperforming assets may mean higher credit risk. This can affect loan loss reserves.
Worry ifNonperforming assets were over $40 million in Q3.
Less concerning ifNonperforming assets are below $39 million. This shows better credit quality.
Why it matters: A steady or better net interest margin shows good handling of interest income and costs.
Supportive ifNet interest margin exceeds 4.20% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNet interest margin falls below 4.10% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Strong loan growth signals that Home Bancorp is maintaining its growth strategy. It shows demand for loans in the market.
Supportive ifQ3 loans increase by more than 2% compared to Q2 loans of $2.779 billion.
Worry ifQ3 loans grow less than 1% compared to Q2 loans.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows good money management. A cut may mean financial problems.
Supportive ifThe company will pay a quarterly dividend of $0.31 per share again.
Worry ifThe company will lower the quarterly dividend to below $0.31 per share.
Why it matters: A higher dividend shows good capital use. It also shows a commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a dividend increase above $0.32 per share.
Worry ifNo dividend increase announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: The earnings call will give updates on financial performance. It will also share management's outlook.
Watch forThe earnings call shows better earnings than expected. It also gives positive guidance.
Also watch forThe earnings call shows disappointing results. It also gives negative guidance.