Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
HBT Financial, Inc. (HBT)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$37.12-1.82%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.46 → 3.57 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for HBT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Complete acquisition of CNB Bank Shares, Inc. | A primary condition in HBT Financial, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is acquisition completed by 2026-Q2. | Intact | acquisition not completed by 2026-Q2 | Acquisition pending regulatory approval vs 2026-Q2 target TYFG shareholders approved merger on Oct 29, 2026; closing subject to regulatory approval. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
HBT is a regional banking business with a merger-led growth and integration thesis, rather than a clear turnaround or high-growth story. The thesis is in a watch state: its signal has improved to mildly favorable, but recent performance is still below its industry cohort.
Valuation is tagged as justified, with a durable premium versus peers and a small negative expectations gap, meaning expectations are slightly ahead of the model’s view. The valuation measure rose recently, but the supplied evidence does not show that the premium is fragile.
Near term, completing the CNB integration and controlling costs are the clearest execution priorities. Third-quarter noninterest income increased, partly due to CNB’s larger customer base, and expenses declined from the prior quarter after excluding acquisition costs, though some income gains were nonrecurring or valuation-related. Near-term miss risk is rated low, but a guidance cut and recent history of missed quarters remain watch items.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on HBT turning CNB integration into lasting benefits and showing measurable progress on the proposed Tri-County merger. Guidance cuts or lower interest rates are unfavorable risks in the evidence, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers could support sector momentum.
Over a 1-to-3-year view, HBT’s case is a measured merger-execution story, with some operating progress but uneven evidence and performance still trailing its industry cohort. The main test is whether integration and cost control deliver durable results. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| It raised dividends to $0.23 per share, showing strong capital return. |
| Intact |
| dividend falls below $0.23 per share next 4 quarters |
Dividend per share: $0.23 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: dividend >= $0.23 per share quarterly. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 7, 20260.23 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Manage noninterest expense between $41M and $43M per quarter | Profit margins and expense control remain stable. | Intact | noninterest expense outside $41M-$43M range next 4 quarters | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve revenue growth near 16.6% next year | Analysts expect about 17% revenue growth next year. | Improving | YoY revenue growth falls below 16% in FY27 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.09 → $3.57 · observed estimates
$0.33B → $0.40B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.09 | $332,734,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.09 | $332,734,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.09 | $332,734,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.09 | $332,734,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.17 | $337,763,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.18 | $338,823,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.18 | $338,823,600 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.18 | $338,823,600 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.18 | $338,823,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.18 | $338,823,600 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.18 | $338,823,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.18 | $338,823,600 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.18 | $338,823,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.18 | $338,823,600 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.18 | $338,823,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.18 | $338,823,600 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.18 | $338,823,600 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.18 | $338,823,600 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.28 | $356,004,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.18 | $338,823,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.18 | $338,823,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.18 | $338,823,600 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.18 | $338,823,600 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.18 | $338,823,600 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.18 | $338,823,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.18 | $338,823,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.45 | $390,420,200 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.45 | $390,420,200 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.45 | $390,420,200 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.45 | $390,420,200 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.45 | $390,420,200 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.45 | $390,420,200 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.45 | $390,420,200 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.45 | $390,420,200 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.45 | $390,420,200 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.45 | $390,420,200 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.45 | $390,420,200 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.45 | $390,420,200 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.45 | $390,420,200 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.45 | $390,420,200 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.45 | $390,420,200 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.45 | $390,420,200 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.45 | $390,420,200 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.45 | $390,420,200 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.45 | $390,420,200 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.45 | $390,420,200 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.45 | $390,420,200 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.45 | $390,420,200 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.45 | $390,420,200 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.45 | $390,420,200 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.45 | $390,420,200 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.45 | $390,420,200 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.45 | $390,420,200 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.45 | $390,420,200 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.45 | $390,420,200 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.45 | $390,420,200 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.45 | $390,420,200 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.45 | $390,420,200 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.45 | $390,420,200 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.45 | $390,420,200 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.45 | $390,420,200 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.45 | $390,420,200 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.45 | $390,420,200 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.45 | $390,420,200 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.45 | $390,420,200 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.45 | $390,420,200 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.45 | $390,420,200 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.45 | $390,420,200 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.45 | $390,420,200 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.46 | $391,000,200 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.46 | $391,000,200 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.46 | $391,000,200 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.46 | $391,000,200 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.46 | $391,000,200 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.46 | $391,000,200 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.46 | $391,000,200 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.46 | $391,000,200 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.46 | $391,000,200 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.46 | $391,000,200 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.46 | $391,000,200 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.46 | $391,000,200 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.46 | $391,000,200 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.46 | $391,000,200 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.46 | $391,000,200 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.46 | $391,000,200 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.46 | $391,000,200 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.46 | $391,000,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.46 | $391,000,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.46 | $391,000,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.46 | $391,000,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.46 | $391,000,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.46 | $391,000,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.46 | $391,000,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.46 | $391,000,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.46 | $391,000,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.57 | $398,121,560 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.57 | $398,121,560 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.57 | $398,121,560 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.57 | $398,121,560 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.57 | $398,121,560 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.57 | $398,121,560 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.57 | $398,121,560 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.57 | $398,121,560 | 4 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.