HBT Financial, Inc. (HBT)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$37.12-1.82%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HBT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 12.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 31.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 19.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 230 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
HBT — credit agreement
Dated 2026-11-02
Other Events. As previously disclosed, on August 10, 2026, HBT Financial, Inc. (“HBT” or the “Company”) and Tri-County Financial Group, Inc. (“TYFG”) entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger in connection with HBT's proposed acquisition of TYFG and its wholly owned bank subsidiary, First State Bank. On October 29, 2026, TYFG's stockholders approved the proposed transaction at a special meeting of its stockholders. The closing of the proposed merger remains subject to regulatory approval a…
Why it matters: HBT's margin rose to 4.35% in Q3 as loan yields improved. Funding costs also rose, which could limit further gains.
Watch forReported net interest margin rises above 4.35%, while the cost of funds stays at or below 1.36%.
Also watch forReported net interest margin falls below 4.35%, or the cost of funds rises above 1.36%.
Why it matters: HBT reported very low problem assets in Q3. A rise would weaken the recent picture of strong loan quality.
Worry ifQ4 nonperforming assets exceed 0.16% of total assets, the Q3 level.
Less concerning ifQ4 nonperforming assets stay at or below 0.16% of total assets.
Why it matters: The board raised the dividend to $0.25 in Q2 and kept it there in October. Another change would show a new capital return step.
Watch forA board filing declares a quarterly dividend above $0.25 per share.
Also watch forA board filing cuts the dividend below $0.25 per share.
Why it matters: HBT plans to close the Tri-County deal early in Q1 2027. Approval and a timely close would advance its central Illinois and Chicago growth plan.
Supportive ifTri-County stockholders and regulators approve the deal, and HBT closes it by the end of Q1 2027.
Worry ifA required approval is denied, or the deal does not close by the end of Q1 2027.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$90 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $237 loss on $10,000 · 2.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,201 loss on $10,000 · 12.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.