HBT Financial, Inc. (HBT)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$36.59+0.63%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HBT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 27.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 25.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 1.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
HBT — credit agreement
Dated 2026-08-10
Regulation FD Disclosure. On August 10, 2026, HBT and TYFG issued a joint press release announcing the execution of the Merger Agreement. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Report. From time to time on and after August 10, 2026, HBT intends to provide supplemental information regarding the proposed transaction to analysts and investors in connection with certain presentations. A copy of an investor presentation (the “Investor Presentation”) is furnished as Exhibi…
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows confidence in cash flow and financial health.
Supportive ifThe dividend remains at $0.23 per share for the next quarter.
Worry ifThe dividend is cut below $0.23 per share, indicating potential cash flow issues.
Why it matters: Loan growth will indicate how well HBT is integrating CNB and attracting new business.
Watch forTotal loans increase a lot. This shows successful integration and keeping customers.
Also watch forTotal loans decrease or stay the same. This suggests integration problems or losing customers.
Why it matters: If expenses exceed this level, it could hurt profits and investor confidence. Keeping expenses low is key.
Worry ifNoninterest expenses are below $41M for the next quarter.
Less concerning ifNoninterest expenses are above $43M for the next quarter.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth signals a slowdown in the financial sector. This could hurt HBT's performance.
Worry if3-year revenue growth falls below 15%.
Less concerning if3-year revenue growth remains at or above 15%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$96 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $269 loss on $10,000 · 2.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,289 loss on $10,000 · 12.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Completing the acquisition could boost HBT's growth and market presence. It is a key management priority.
Supportive ifThere is an official announcement. It confirms CNB Bank Shares joined HBT successfully.
Worry ifThere are delays or problems with the integration of CNB Bank Shares.
Why it matters: Managing expenses is key to making money after the CNB acquisition. It shows cost control.
Supportive ifNoninterest expense reports at or below $43 million for Q3 2026.
Worry ifNoninterest expense is over $43 million. This shows poor cost management.
Why it matters: If the integration is successful, it will show the benefits of the CNB purchase. This will help growth.
Supportive ifManagement says they have achieved full benefits and cost savings from the CNB purchase.
Worry ifManagement says there are still challenges or delays in getting benefits from the CNB purchase.
Why it matters: Strong loan growth indicates successful integration of CNB and demand for loans.
Supportive ifTotal loans were above $4.75 billion. This shows strong demand and good integration.
Worry ifTotal loans were below $4.75 billion. This means weak demand or integration problems.
Why it matters: Steady loan growth shows good integration and market expansion after the CNB merger.
Supportive ifTotal loans outstanding increase by more than $65 million from Q2 2026.
Worry ifTotal loans drop or grow less than $65 million. This suggests integration issues.
Why it matters: A stable or rising net interest margin shows strong loan performance. It also shows good asset management.
Supportive ifNet interest margin reported above 4.32% for Q3 2026.
Worry ifNet interest margin falls below 4.32%. This signals possible issues in loan pricing or funding costs.
Why it matters: Strong earnings growth shows CNB Bank is integrating well and is strong.
Supportive ifQ3 net income is over $30 million. This shows growth after the acquisition.
Worry ifQ3 net income is under $25 million. This suggests there are integration problems.
Why it matters: An increase shows management believes earnings will stay strong.
Supportive ifBoard announces a dividend increase above $0.25 per share.
Worry ifNo increase in the quarterly dividend may mean worries about earnings.
Why it matters: A successful merger will help HBT grow its market and products.
Supportive ifThe merger closed on time and got all needed approvals.
Worry ifThe merger may be delayed or not get the needed approvals.