Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
HCI Group, Inc. (HCI)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$192.03-5.18%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
19.19 → 19.44 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for HCI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain dividend payments at $0.4 per share | The company maintains stable dividends at $0.4 per share. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.4 next year | Dividend per share: $0.40 per share FY2025-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.4 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. May 9, 20250.4 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
HCI is an insurance company with a growth-and-execution thesis, rather than a turnaround story. The thesis is intact, and its recent signal improved from mildly favorable to favorable.
Valuation is described as cheap, though HCI trades at a premium to peers. The expectations gap is negative, which suggests the market may be assuming more than the evidence supports; the priced-in signal is justified, with low fragility.
Near-term results have been strong, including a recent earnings beat, and first-half premiums and net income were higher year over year. Management has completed its stated share repurchase program and maintained the dividend, while its growth priorities remain on track. Near-term earnings risk is quiet, but estimates have been trending down and the company has had a deep miss in its recent history.
Over the next few quarters, the key company-specific risk is a guidance cut, which could lead analysts to lower estimates. The multi-year view also depends on growth efforts continuing to support results; lower interest rates could weigh on the Financials sector, while continued strong results from sector peers could support sector momentum.
For the next 1 to 3 years, HCI’s thesis rests on continued growth and solid execution, balanced against rate sensitivity and the risk of weaker guidance. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Profit margins remain strong with EPS guidance around $5.45 for 2026. |
| Intact |
| EPS guidance falls below $5.45 for FY26 |
Diluted EPS: $5.60 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$5.45 EPS. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 20265.6 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth at or above 5.8% annually | A primary condition in HCI Group, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=5.8% YoY. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 5.8% next year | Revenue growth: 11.15% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=5.8% YoY. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Aug 7, 202611.145007 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““Looking forward to 2026, we are exploring new areas of growth, both organically and through acquisition.” ““Our focus continues to be on achieving exceptional performance in all types of operating environments.”” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$18.73 → $19.44 · observed estimates
$1.02B → $1.05B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $18.73 | $1,016,792,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $18.14 | $1,003,089,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $18.79 | $1,031,786,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $18.79 | $1,031,786,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $18.19 | $1,014,334,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $18.79 | $1,031,786,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $18.79 | $1,031,786,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $18.79 | $1,031,786,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $18.19 | $1,014,334,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $18.19 | $1,014,334,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $18.79 | $1,031,786,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $18.19 | $1,014,334,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $18.79 | $1,031,786,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $18.79 | $1,031,786,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $18.19 | $1,014,334,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $18.79 | $1,036,639,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $18.79 | $1,036,639,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $18.79 | $1,036,639,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $19.58 | $1,055,597,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $18.19 | $1,014,334,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $18.19 | $1,014,334,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $18.19 | $1,014,334,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $18.19 | $1,014,334,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $18.19 | $1,014,334,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $18.19 | $1,014,334,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $18.19 | $1,014,334,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $19.13 | $1,040,590,999 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $19.13 | $1,040,590,999 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $19.13 | $1,040,590,999 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $19.13 | $1,040,590,999 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $19.13 | $1,040,590,999 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $19.13 | $1,040,590,999 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $19.13 | $1,040,590,999 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $19.13 | $1,040,590,999 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $19.13 | $1,040,590,999 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $19.13 | $1,040,590,999 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $19.13 | $1,040,590,999 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $19.13 | $1,040,590,999 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $19.13 | $1,040,590,999 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $19.13 | $1,040,590,999 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $19.13 | $1,040,590,999 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $19.13 | $1,040,590,999 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $19.13 | $1,040,590,999 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $19.13 | $1,040,590,999 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $19.13 | $1,040,590,999 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $19.13 | $1,040,590,999 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $19.13 | $1,040,590,999 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $19.13 | $1,040,590,999 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $19.13 | $1,040,590,999 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $19.13 | $1,040,590,999 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $19.13 | $1,040,590,999 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $19.13 | $1,040,590,999 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $19.13 | $1,040,590,999 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $19.13 | $1,040,590,999 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $19.19 | $1,040,125,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $19.19 | $1,040,125,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $19.19 | $1,040,125,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $19.19 | $1,040,125,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $19.19 | $1,040,125,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $19.19 | $1,040,125,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $19.19 | $1,040,125,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $19.19 | $1,040,125,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $19.19 | $1,040,125,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $19.19 | $1,040,125,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $19.19 | $1,040,125,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $19.19 | $1,040,125,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $19.19 | $1,040,125,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $19.19 | $1,040,125,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $19.19 | $1,040,125,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $19.19 | $1,040,125,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $19.19 | $1,040,125,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $19.19 | $1,040,125,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $19.19 | $1,040,125,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $19.19 | $1,040,125,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $19.19 | $1,040,125,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $19.43 | $1,040,125,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $19.43 | $1,040,125,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $19.43 | $1,040,125,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $19.43 | $1,040,125,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $19.43 | $1,040,125,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $19.43 | $1,040,125,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $19.44 | $1,046,993,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $19.44 | $1,046,993,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $19.44 | $1,046,993,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $19.44 | $1,046,993,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $19.44 | $1,046,993,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $19.44 | $1,046,993,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $19.44 | $1,046,993,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $19.44 | $1,046,993,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $19.44 | $1,046,993,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $19.44 | $1,046,993,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $19.44 | $1,046,993,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $19.44 | $1,046,993,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $19.44 | $1,046,993,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $19.44 | $1,046,993,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $19.44 | $1,046,993,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $19.44 | $1,046,993,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $19.44 | $1,046,993,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $19.44 | $1,046,993,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $19.44 | $1,046,993,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $19.44 | $1,046,993,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $19.44 | $1,046,993,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $19.44 | $1,046,993,250 | 3 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.