HCI Group, Inc. (HCI)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-05
$192.03-5.18%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HCI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -15.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 8.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 23.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 30 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
HCI — officer change
Dated 2025-12-23
CEO — Mr. Patel: The filing discloses a cash bonus payment, which is a compensation arrangement rather than a change in officer status or departure.
Why it matters: Management said it is exploring growth through its own business and acquisitions. A named deal or clear growth plan would show what comes next.
Supportive ifHCI names a new acquisition or organic growth plan and gives a clear launch date or spending amount.
Worry ifHCI reports no named growth plan or acquisition update by its next two earnings reports.
Why it matters: New carrier customers helped lift Exzeo's other revenue. More additions would show that this business is growing beyond HCI's insurance policies.
Supportive ifHCI reports new Exzeo carrier customers and higher other revenue than Q2's $5 million.
Worry ifHCI reports no new Exzeo carrier customers and other revenue at or below Q2's $5 million.
Why it matters: More policies drove higher premiums in the first half. A higher Q3 figure would show that this growth continued.
Supportive ifQ3 gross premiums earned exceed $321 million, the Q2 2026 level.
Worry ifQ3 gross premiums earned fall below $303 million, the Q2 2025 level.
Why it matters: The gross loss ratio rose from 20.1% in Q1 to 22.2% in Q2. A lower Q3 reading would show losses are easing.
Worry ifQ3 gross loss ratio is above 22.2%, the Q2 level.
Less concerning ifQ3 gross loss ratio is below 22.2%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$98 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $314 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,666 loss on $10,000 · 26.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The new catastrophe reinsurance program began June 1. Its cost affects how much premium HCI keeps after reinsurance.
Watch forThe Nov. 4 report shows Q3 premiums ceded are below Q2's $102 million, without a higher loss ratio than 22.2%.
Also watch forThe Nov. 4 report shows Q3 premiums ceded above $102 million and a gross loss ratio above 22.2%.