HCI Group, Inc. (HCI)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$187.64-1.20%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HCI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -22.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 6.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 29.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 33 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
HCI — officer change
Dated 2025-12-23
CEO — Mr. Patel: The filing discloses a cash bonus payment, which is a compensation arrangement rather than a change in officer status or departure.
Why it matters: Slower growth in net investment income may show problems with the investment plan.
Worry ifQ3 net investment income growth below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 net investment income growth above 15% year over year.
Why it matters: New reinsurance deals can help HCI's finances and growth.
Supportive ifLook for news on new reinsurance partnerships or successful deals.
Worry ifWatch for problems in getting new partnerships or current deals.
Why it matters: New growth areas can bring in more money. They help the company grow.
Supportive ifManagement talks about new growth areas or new purchases.
Worry ifNo new growth areas or purchases are mentioned in future updates.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising dividends shows that a company is strong. It also shows they care about shareholders.
Supportive ifManagement says they will keep or raise dividend payments.
Worry ifManagement cuts or stops paying dividends.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$107 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $329 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,765 loss on $10,000 · 27.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Finishing the buyback may show management's trust in the company. It can help the share price.
Supportive ifThe company said it finished the $80 million share buyback program.
Worry ifManagement announced they will stop the share buyback program.
Why it matters: A drop in net income can show financial trouble. This may hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifNet income reported below $80 million for Q3.
Less concerning ifNet income remains above $80 million, showing strong performance.
Why it matters: New acquisitions or partnerships can drive growth and enhance HCI's market position. Investors will look for strategic moves.
Supportive ifThere is news of a new acquisition or partnership that fits the growth strategy.
Worry ifNo news on acquisitions or partnerships may show a lack of growth plans.
Why it matters: Good reinsurance programs lower risk. They help keep finances steady.
Supportive ifNew reinsurance programs are confirmed to be working well.
Worry ifReports of issues or failures in the new reinsurance programs.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth below 12% may signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This could impact HCI's performance.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below 12% year over year.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth stays above 12% year over year.
Why it matters: A higher gross loss ratio indicates worsening claims costs, which can hurt profits.
Worry ifGross loss ratio exceeds 22.5%, indicating increased claims costs.
Less concerning ifGross loss ratio stays at or below 22%, showing stable claims costs.
Why it matters: Earnings results show how well the company is doing and its plans.
Watch forEarnings report shows big gains in revenue or profits.
Also watch forEarnings report shows a drop in revenue or unexpected losses.
Why it matters: Strong premium growth shows a healthy insurance business and good market demand.
Supportive ifReported premium growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Worry ifPremium growth reported below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: New M&A activities may show growth opportunities and changes for HCI.
Supportive ifA new acquisition or partnership could help HCI grow its market presence.
Worry ifNo new M&A announcements show a lack of growth plans.
Why it matters: A higher gross loss ratio may show worse underwriting performance. This can hurt profits.
Worry ifGross loss ratio reported above 22.5% for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifGross loss ratio remains at or below 22.5% for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: New growth plans can increase revenue. They also help the long-term strategy.
Supportive ifManagement will announce new growth areas or acquisitions in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo new growth plans or acquisitions will be announced in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: The dividend shows the company is doing well. It also shows management values shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend payment remains at $0.40 per share in Q3 2026.
Worry ifDividend payment is cut below $0.40 per share in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: More buybacks may show strong cash flow. They also show a commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifThey will announce a new share buyback program after Q2 results.
Worry ifNo announcement of further share buybacks after Q2 results.