Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Heritage Financial Corporation (HFWA)
NASDAQHealth CareBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$28.56-2.12%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.63 → 2.62 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for HFWA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain quarterly dividend at $0.24 per share | The company maintains a steady quarterly dividend of $0.24 per share. | Intact | dividend falls below $0.24 per share in any quarter | Dividend per share: $0.24 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: quarterly dividend = $0.24 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 7, 20260.24 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
HFWA is a smaller-cap bank with a recent record of strong financial performance and robust earnings quality. The 1-to-3-year thesis is intact, but the latest earnings miss and a sharp drop in company momentum make execution worth watching.
The valuation is described as cheap, while its peer comparison is close to even and the expectations gap is nearly neutral. Pricing is tagged as justified, with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to unusually high expectations already built in.
In the near term, loan and deposit growth and a higher net interest margin show progress on management’s stated priorities. Olympic customer conversion is complete, but supplied evidence does not quantify merger savings; the latest earnings miss and consecutive misses add risk despite a low estimated miss probability.
The multi-year view depends in part on continued loan and deposit growth, margin improvement, and realization of merger savings. Near-term risks include a guidance cut and further job-market weakening, while continued strength among healthcare bellwethers could support sector momentum.
HFWA’s operating progress supports an intact long-term thesis, but the latest miss and weaker momentum call for attention to execution and guidance. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Heritage Financial grew net income to $18.95 million in Q1 2026 from $13.91 million in Q1 2025. |
| Intact |
| net income falls below $18 million in any quarter after Q1 2026 |
Net income: $18.72M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $18.95 million net income in Q1 2026. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 22, 202618,720,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income growth to at least $22.39 million in Q1 2026 | Operating income rose to $22.39 million in Q1 2026 from $16.16 million in Q1 2025. | Intact | operating income falls below $22 million in any quarter after Q1 2026 | Operating income: $22.283M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $22.39 million operating income in Q1 2026. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 22, 202622,283,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve revenue growth near 8.7% next 12 months | A primary condition in Heritage Financial Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >= 8% revenue growth next 12 months. | Broken | revenue growth falls below 7% in FY 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.80 → $2.62 · observed estimates
$0.37B → $0.36B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.80 | $371,345,750 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.79 | $369,976,600 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.79 | $370,570,750 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.79 | $369,976,600 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.79 | $370,570,750 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.65 | $362,017,800 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.65 | $362,017,800 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.65 | $362,017,800 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.65 | $362,017,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.65 | $362,017,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.65 | $362,017,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.65 | $362,017,800 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.65 | $362,017,800 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.65 | $362,017,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.65 | $362,017,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.65 | $362,017,800 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.65 | $362,017,800 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.65 | $362,017,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.65 | $362,017,800 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.65 | $362,017,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.65 | $362,017,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.65 | $362,017,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.65 | $362,017,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.65 | $362,017,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.65 | $362,017,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.65 | $362,017,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.65 | $362,017,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.65 | $362,017,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.65 | $362,017,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.65 | $362,017,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.65 | $362,017,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.65 | $362,017,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.65 | $362,017,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.65 | $362,017,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.65 | $362,017,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.65 | $362,017,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.65 | $362,017,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.65 | $362,017,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.65 | $362,017,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.65 | $362,017,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.65 | $362,017,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.65 | $362,017,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.65 | $362,017,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.65 | $362,017,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.65 | $362,017,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.65 | $362,017,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.65 | $362,017,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.65 | $362,017,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.65 | $362,017,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.65 | $362,017,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.65 | $362,017,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.65 | $362,017,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.65 | $362,017,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.65 | $362,017,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.65 | $362,017,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.65 | $362,017,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.65 | $362,017,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.65 | $362,017,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.65 | $362,017,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.65 | $362,017,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.65 | $362,017,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.65 | $362,017,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.63 | $361,662,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.63 | $361,662,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.63 | $361,662,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.63 | $361,662,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.63 | $361,662,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.63 | $361,662,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.63 | $361,662,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.63 | $361,762,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.63 | $361,762,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.63 | $361,762,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.63 | $361,762,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.63 | $361,762,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.63 | $361,762,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.63 | $361,762,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.63 | $361,762,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.63 | $361,762,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.63 | $361,762,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.63 | $361,762,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.63 | $361,762,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.63 | $361,762,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.63 | $361,762,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.63 | $361,762,400 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.63 | $361,762,400 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.63 | $361,762,400 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.63 | $361,762,400 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.63 | $361,762,400 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.63 | $361,762,400 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.63 | $361,762,400 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.63 | $361,822,400 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.63 | $362,362,400 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.63 | $362,362,400 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.64 | $363,342,400 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.64 | $363,342,400 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.64 | $363,342,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.62 | $363,482,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.62 | $363,482,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.62 | $363,482,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.62 | $363,482,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.62 | $363,482,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.62 | $363,482,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.62 | $363,482,000 | 5 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.