Heritage Financial Corporation (HFWA)
NASDAQHealth CareBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$29.29+0.21%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HFWA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 2.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 0.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
HFWA — dividend update
Dated 2026-07-23
Other Events On July 23, 2026, Heritage issued a press release announcing a regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.25 per common share. The dividend will be paid on August 19, 2026 to shareholders of record at the close of business on August 5, 2026. A copy of the release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: Growth in net income shows good integration and more money made.
Supportive ifNet income for Q3 2026 increases year over year compared to Q3 2025.
Worry ifNet income for Q3 2026 decreases or remains flat year over year.
Why it matters: A slowdown in sector revenue growth could impact Heritage's performance. This is key for understanding market conditions.
Worry ifSector revenue growth falls below 8% year over year.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Strong net income growth would show the company is on track with its goals. This supports investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ2 net income growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 net income growth is below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: A rise would show good money management and trust in future profits.
Supportive ifManagement says they will raise the dividend to more than $0.25 per share.
Worry ifManagement maintains the dividend at $0.25 per share or lowers it.
Why it matters: Finishing the system change will help Heritage save money. This is important for making more money in the future.
Supportive ifManagement confirms that the system conversion is completed by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe system conversion is delayed beyond Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Loan growth over $30 million shows strong demand and good management of loans.
Supportive ifLoans receivable increase by more than $30 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifLoans receivable increase by less than $20 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: An increase shows strong capital use and trust in future earnings.
Supportive ifManagement announces a dividend increase to more than $0.25 per share.
Worry ifManagement keeps the dividend at $0.25 per share with no increase.
Why it matters: The Q2 earnings will show if Heritage can maintain its revenue growth. Investors will look for signs of stability or decline.
Watch forQ2 earnings report shows revenue growth above 5% year over year.
Also watch forQ2 earnings report shows revenue growth below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: More net income means the company is merging Olympic well and making more money.
Supportive ifNet income for Q3 2026 exceeds $17.5 million.
Worry ifNet income for Q3 2026 is below $17.5 million.
Why it matters: Finishing the systems integration will save money from the Olympic acquisition. This is important for making more money in the future.
Supportive ifManagement says the systems integration will be done by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifIf integration is late past Q3 2026, it will hurt expected cost savings.
Why it matters: Loan origination trends show how well the company is growing after the merger.
Watch forLoan origination in Q3 2026 is more than $162.2 million from Q2 2026.
Also watch forLoan origination in Q3 2026 falls below $162.2 million reported in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A rise in net interest margin shows better money-making. This is important after the Olympic deal.
Supportive ifNet interest margin increases above 4.00% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNet interest margin declines or stays below 3.99% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Regular dividend payments show that a company is strong. They also show that it cares about its shareholders.
Supportive ifHeritage declares a quarterly cash dividend of at least $0.25 per share in Q3 2026.
Worry ifHeritage does not declare a dividend in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Stable loan growth means a strong loan pipeline. It also shows good management after the acquisition.
Supportive ifLoan growth reported above 1% quarter over quarter in Q3 2026.
Worry ifLoan growth reported below 0.5% quarter over quarter in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings growth shows strong finances and good management. It gives investors confidence in future results.
Supportive ifEarnings per share reported above $0.42 for Q3 2026.
Worry ifEarnings per share reported below $0.42 for Q3 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$76 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $231 loss on $10,000 · 2.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,386 loss on $10,000 · 13.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.