Heritage Financial Corporation (HFWA)
NASDAQHealth CareBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$29.18+1.43%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HFWA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 4.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 0.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 230 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
HFWA — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-22
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On October 22, 2026, Heritage Financial Corporation (“Heritage”) issued a press release announcing its third quarter 2026 results. A copy of the release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished pursuant to this Item and the related exhibit is being “furnished” and will not, except to the extent required by applicable law or regulation, be deemed “filed”…
Why it matters: The margin rose for three straight quarters. A further rise would support the company's earnings trend.
Supportive ifThe next report shows net interest margin above 4.05%. Loan yield is steady or higher, and interest-bearing deposit cost is no higher than 1.65%.
Worry ifNet interest margin falls below 4.05%. Loan yield drops, or interest-bearing deposit cost rises above 1.65%.
Why it matters: These deposits made up 85.9% of Q3 deposits. Continued growth would support the bank's funding base.
Supportive ifDeposits without fixed terms rise above $6.17 billion next quarter. Total deposits stay at or above $7.19 billion.
Worry ifDeposits without fixed terms fall below $6.17 billion. Or total deposits fall below $7.19 billion.
Why it matters: Loans rose 2.3% in Q3, but payoffs and prepayments also rose. Faster growth would show that new lending is keeping up.
Supportive ifQuarterly loans rise more than 2.3% from $5.88 billion, as new loan funding exceeds the Q3 total of $255.4 million.
Worry ifQuarterly loans rise less than 2.3% or decline, while new loan funding falls below $255.4 million.
Why it matters: The Kitsap customer conversion is done. Lower merger costs would show progress toward savings.
Supportive ifThe next report shows merger costs below $5.2 million. Adjusted expenses are also lower than Q3.
Worry ifMerger costs are $5.2 million or more, or adjusted expenses rise from Q3.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$78 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $219 loss on $10,000 · 2.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,398 loss on $10,000 · 14.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.