Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Heritage Global Inc (HGBL)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.26-1.56%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.15 → 0.15 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for HGBL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Free cash flow turns positive | Profit margins and cash flow should stabilize as the business integrates new assets. | Broken | Free cash flow yield remains negative over next 4 quarters | Free cash flow yield: -2.47% As of 2026-11-04; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 4, 2026-2.47 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a higher-risk turnaround-style business, not a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis is on watch: recent results are weak, earnings quality is fragile, and the wind-down has had a significant financial impact.
HGBL is described as cheap versus peers, while the model also shows a premium relative to peers, so the valuation evidence is mixed. The priced-in assessment is marked justified, with low fragility concentration; the evidence does not show that the market already assumes a successful turnaround.
Near term, the HGC wind-down is likely to keep weighing on reported results, consistent with the move from positive net income in Q1 to a loss in Q2. The Boston Note acquisition expands the Financial Assets platform, but its financial impact is not yet reported. Recent misses and smaller-company risk leave execution and guidance as key concerns.
The multi-year view depends on whether management can complete the HGC wind-down and build the Financial Assets platform through acquisitions. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued strength from sector bellwethers could support sector momentum; rate cuts are identified as a headwind for Financials.
HGBL remains a watch-stage, elevated-risk thesis with weak recent performance and an unproven platform expansion. Progress on the wind-down, future guidance, and sector conditions are the main swing factors over the next one to three years. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Profit margins and cash flow should stabilize as the business integrates new assets. |
| Broken |
| Profit margins decline significantly below recent TTM levels |
Net margin: -129.54% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Maintain stable profit margins near current TTM levels. Target percentage unit is not explicit. Aug 13, 2026-129.53934 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth of about 12% next fiscal year | Revenue is expected to grow about 12% next year. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 11.9% in FY27 | Revenue growth: -14.25% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=11.9% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 13, 2026-14.254754 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.17 → $0.15 · observed estimates
$0.06B → $0.06B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.17 | $59,354,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.19 | $59,354,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.17 | $59,354,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.19 | $59,354,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.17 | $59,354,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.17 | $59,354,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.19 | $59,354,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.17 | $59,354,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.19 | $59,354,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.19 | $59,354,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.19 | $59,354,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.17 | $59,354,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.17 | $59,354,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.19 | $59,354,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.19 | $59,354,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.17 | $59,354,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.17 | $59,354,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.19 | $59,354,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.17 | $59,354,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.19 | $59,354,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.19 | $59,354,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.19 | $59,354,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.19 | $59,354,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.19 | $59,354,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.19 | $59,354,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.19 | $59,354,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.17 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.17 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.15 | $56,487,500 | 3 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.