Heritage Global Inc (HGBL)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$1.36+4.62%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HGBL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -52.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 12.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 65.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 28 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
HGBL — strategy / product update — Material Impairments
Dated 2026-07-31
Material Impairments. The information set forth in
Why it matters: If revenue growth drops, it may signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This could impact Heritage Global's performance.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below the median of 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth stays at or above the median of 15% year over year.
Why it matters: The size of the charge will indicate the impact of the wind down on financial health. A large charge could signal deeper issues in the lending segment.
Worry ifThe non-cash charge is over $5 million. This shows big write-downs.
Less concerning ifThe announced non-cash charge is less than $1 million, suggesting a less severe impact.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This would impact investor confidence in Heritage Global.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth falls below the median of 15%.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth stays at or above the median of 15%.
Why it matters: The wind down may affect future earnings and company plans. It is important to know the financial effects.
Worry ifManagement will explain the wind down process. They will share its financial effects later.
Less concerning ifManagement does not give updates or says there is a delay in the wind down.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$161 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $386 loss on $10,000 · 3.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,688 loss on $10,000 · 46.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: GDP growth affects economic outlook and investor sentiment. Strong GDP can boost financial stocks.
Watch forGDP advance estimate shows growth above 2%.
Also watch forGDP advance estimate shows growth below 1%.
Why it matters: The call will reveal the size of the non-cash charge from winding down HGC. This is crucial for understanding the financial impact on the company.
Worry ifThe earnings call reveals a non-cash charge greater than $15 million.
Less concerning ifThe earnings call shows a non-cash charge less than $15 million.
Why it matters: The wind down of the Specialty Lending segment may affect overall financial health. This could lead to increased scrutiny from investors.
Worry ifFinancial results show a large drop in operating income. This is compared to past quarters due to the wind down.
Less concerning ifOperating income stays the same or gets better even with the wind down.
Why it matters: The wind down could greatly impact overall financial performance. This impact is important for the future.
Worry ifNet income continues to decline beyond the reported -$15.9 million in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifNet income stays the same or gets better in the next quarters.
Why it matters: This acquisition could grow Heritage Global's Financial Assets platform. Success may increase revenue and market share.
Supportive ifManagement will announce new partnerships. They will also report revenue growth from the Boston Note deal in six months.
Worry ifNo new partnerships or revenue growth reported from the Boston Note acquisition within six months.
Why it matters: The end of Heritage Global Capital could greatly affect financial performance. Investors need clear details on timing and costs.
Worry ifManagement will share a clear timeline. They will also give cost estimates for the wind down. These costs are higher than expected.
Less concerning ifManagement fails to provide a clear timeline or cost estimates for the wind down.
Why it matters: This call will reveal the financial impact of the wind down of Heritage Global Capital. Investors will want to see how much the non-cash charge affects the company's financial health.
Worry ifThe call reveals a non-cash charge related to non-performing loans that exceeds $10 million.
Less concerning ifThe call shows a non-cash charge related to non-performing loans of less than $10 million.