Heritage Global Inc (HGBL)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.26-1.56%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HGBL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -50.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 14.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 65.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 15 industry peers
HGBL — credit agreement
Dated 2026-09-22
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On September 16, 2026, Heritage Global Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a promissory note, a business loan agreement and commercial security agreement (collectively, the “New Credit Facility”) with C3bank, National Association (the “Lender”). The New Credit Facility provides for a $10.0 million revolving line of credit. The Company is permitted to use the proceeds of the New Credit Facility solely for its business operations. The maturity date of t…
Why it matters: Boston Note adds new loan and mortgage channels. Reported revenue or deal volume would show whether the purchase is gaining traction.
Supportive ifThe Nov. 5 report names Boston Note and shows revenue or deal volume from seller or carry-back notes.
Worry ifThe Nov. 5 report shows no Boston Note activity, or says its deal flow has fallen since the purchase.
Why it matters: HGBL reported a steep Q2 operating loss. A return to positive operating income would show that the business outside HGC is improving.
Watch forThe Nov. 5 report shows positive operating income, compared with the $20.9 million Q2 operating loss.
Also watch forThe Nov. 5 report shows another operating loss, excluding any new HGC write-down if the company reports that figure.
Why it matters: The Q2 charge drove a large reported loss. The final amount and any later costs show how much harm remains.
Worry ifThe Nov. 5 earnings report shows more HGC loan write-downs or wind-down costs, or HGC losses continue in a later quarter.
Less concerning ifThe Nov. 5 report gives the final HGC charge, with no new write-downs or wind-down costs in later reports.
Why it matters: The line adds funds for business operations. Its cost, use, and repayment terms can show whether cash needs are rising.
Watch forA company filing or earnings update shows the line is unused or drawn down, with no sign of trouble meeting its terms.
Also watch forA filing shows rising use, a missed payment, or a change to the line's terms that limits access to funds.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$87 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $377 loss on $10,000 · 3.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,014 loss on $10,000 · 30.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.