Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryTravel LodgingSnapshot 2026-11-04
$43.60-0.37%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryTravel LodgingSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.28 → 5.06 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for HGV yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Full-year Adjusted EBITDA of about $1.245 billion | Hilton Grand Vacations raised its full-year EBITDA guidance to $1.245 billion. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $1.185 billion in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a company with a mixed execution record, not a clear growth story at present. Its long-term thesis is in a watch state: repurchases are continuing, but sales conversion and consistent profitable growth have shown limited progress.
HGV is described as cheap versus peers, and the evidence does not point to unusually fragile expectations. The market appears to allow for execution weakness, but the supplied evidence does not show exactly what earnings assumptions are priced in.
Near term, recent results raise concern: HGV missed its latest quarter, momentum weakened, and full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance was reduced. Third-quarter revenue was higher than a year earlier, but contract sales were slightly lower than in the prior quarter and conversion efforts have yet to show a measured improvement. Repurchases continued, with 2.4 million shares repurchased in the quarter.
The multi-year thesis depends on management improving sales execution and conversion, then restoring consistent profitable growth. A guidance cut on the next call would add to the concerns, while continued strong results and guidance from sector peers could support the sector backdrop. Weak results or lower guidance from those peers would remove that potential support.
For the next 1 to 3 years, HGV presents a cheap-versus-peers valuation alongside mixed execution and a weaker recent earnings signal. The central question is whether sales conversion and profitable growth improve. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Operating income improved to $74 million recently. |
| Broken |
| Operating income falls below $50 million next quarter |
Operating income: $492M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $74 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 29, 2026492,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth near 9% per year | A primary condition in Hilton Grand Vacations's published investment case. The stated target is >= 8.7% YoY. | Broken | Revenue growth falls below 7% next year | Revenue growth: 50.85% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= 8.7% YoY. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Oct 29, 202650.846154 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Repurchase $150 million in shares per quarter | The company repurchased 3.3 million shares for $150 million in the last quarter. | Intact | Repurchases fall below $100 million next quarter | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$5.52 → $5.06 · observed estimates
$5.87B → $5.61B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $5.52 | $5,867,152,100 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $5.71 | $5,906,174,685 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $5.52 | $5,890,516,170 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $5.52 | $5,890,527,849 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $5.52 | $5,890,516,170 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $5.52 | $5,890,516,170 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $5.52 | $5,890,527,849 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $5.52 | $5,890,516,170 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-01 | $5.59 | $5,879,077,849 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $5.55 | $5,858,735,837 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $5.55 | $5,858,735,837 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $5.55 | $5,858,681,670 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $5.71 | $5,870,175,420 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-06 | $5.66 | $5,880,106,430 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-07 | $5.55 | $5,858,735,837 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $5.71 | $5,870,175,420 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-09 | $5.71 | $5,870,175,420 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-10 | $5.55 | $5,858,735,837 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $5.71 | $5,870,175,420 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $5.55 | $5,858,735,837 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $5.55 | $5,858,735,837 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $5.55 | $5,858,735,837 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $5.55 | $5,858,735,837 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $5.55 | $5,858,735,837 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $5.55 | $5,858,735,837 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $5.55 | $5,858,735,837 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $5.59 | $5,811,944,634 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $5.59 | $5,811,944,634 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $5.59 | $5,811,944,634 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $5.59 | $5,811,944,634 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $5.59 | $5,814,437,714 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $5.59 | $5,814,437,714 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $5.59 | $5,814,437,714 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $5.59 | $5,814,437,714 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $5.59 | $5,814,437,714 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $5.59 | $5,814,437,714 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $5.59 | $5,814,437,714 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $5.59 | $5,814,437,714 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $5.59 | $5,814,437,714 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $5.59 | $5,814,437,714 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $5.59 | $5,814,437,714 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $5.59 | $5,814,437,714 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $5.58 | $5,809,750,214 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $5.58 | $5,809,750,214 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $5.58 | $5,809,750,214 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $5.58 | $5,809,750,214 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $5.58 | $5,809,750,214 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $5.58 | $5,809,750,214 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $5.55 | $5,790,222,412 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $5.55 | $5,790,222,412 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $5.55 | $5,790,222,412 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $5.55 | $5,790,222,412 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $5.55 | $5,790,222,412 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $5.55 | $5,790,222,412 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $5.55 | $5,790,222,412 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $5.55 | $5,790,222,412 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $5.55 | $5,790,222,412 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $5.55 | $5,790,222,412 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $5.55 | $5,790,222,412 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $5.55 | $5,790,222,412 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $5.55 | $5,790,222,412 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $5.55 | $5,790,222,412 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $5.55 | $5,790,222,412 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $5.28 | $5,708,192,302 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $5.28 | $5,708,192,302 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $5.28 | $5,708,192,302 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $5.28 | $5,708,192,302 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $5.28 | $5,708,192,302 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $5.28 | $5,708,192,302 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.28 | $5,708,192,302 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.28 | $5,708,192,302 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.28 | $5,708,192,302 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.28 | $5,708,192,302 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.28 | $5,708,192,302 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.28 | $5,708,192,302 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.28 | $5,708,192,302 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.30 | $5,716,837,601 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.30 | $5,716,837,601 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.30 | $5,716,837,601 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.30 | $5,716,837,601 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.30 | $5,716,837,601 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.30 | $5,716,837,601 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.30 | $5,716,837,601 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.30 | $5,712,554,712 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.30 | $5,712,554,712 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.18 | $5,701,965,824 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.18 | $5,701,965,824 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.18 | $5,701,965,824 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.18 | $5,700,240,735 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.18 | $5,700,240,735 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.13 | $5,700,240,735 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.13 | $5,700,240,735 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.13 | $5,700,240,735 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.13 | $5,700,240,735 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.13 | $5,700,240,735 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.13 | $5,700,240,735 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.13 | $5,700,240,735 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.13 | $5,700,240,735 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $5.07 | $5,666,586,846 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $5.07 | $5,666,586,846 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $5.07 | $5,666,586,846 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.93 | $5,657,738,046 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $5.06 | $5,611,405,641 | 6 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 7 recorded
0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.