Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryReal Estate - DevelopmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
$42.05+0.45%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryReal Estate - DevelopmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HGV
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -39.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 7.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 47.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name its industry peers have been missing lately and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 6 industry peers
HGV — credit agreement
Dated 2026-07-17
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On July 17, 2026, Hilton Grand Vacations Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company” or “HGV”), Hilton Grand Vacations Parent LLC, a Delaware limited liability company (“Holdings”), Hilton Grand Vacations Borrower LLC, a Delaware limited liability company (the “Borrower”), and certain subsidiaries of the Borrower (such subsidiaries collectively, the “Subsidiary Guarantors”), entered into Amendment No. 10 to the Credit Agreement (the “Amendment”), wh…
Why it matters: Increased buybacks show strong cash flow and a commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifTotal share repurchases in Q2 exceed $150 million.
Worry ifShare repurchases fall below $100 million in Q2.
Why it matters: Changes in credit terms can impact financial flexibility. It affects growth plans.
Watch forCredit agreement terms become more favorable for HGV.
Also watch forCredit agreement terms worsen or become more restrictive.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is critical for long-term success. A positive trend shows strong demand for vacation ownership.
Supportive ifTotal revenues exceed $1.285 billion in Q2 2026.
Worry ifTotal revenues fall below $1.285 billion in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Slower revenue growth may show weaker demand and problems in operations.
Worry ifReported revenue growth below 5% year over year in Q3.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth exceeds 5% year over year in Q3.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$171 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $393 loss on $10,000 · 3.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,467 loss on $10,000 · 24.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Construction delays can hurt reported revenue and earnings.
Worry ifNet construction deferrals exceed $25 million in Q2.
Less concerning ifNet construction deferrals are less than $10 million.
Why it matters: More delays could mean problems with finishing projects. This can affect revenue.
Worry ifQ3 construction delays were over $28 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 construction delays were below $28 million.
Why it matters: Growth in operating income shows good cost management. This helps overall profits.
Supportive ifOperating income was over $100M in Q2.
Worry ifOperating income was under $100M in Q2.
Why it matters: Steady revenue growth is important for long-term success and for investor trust.
Watch forRevenue growth exceeds 5% year-over-year in the next earnings report.
Also watch forRevenue growth is flat or negative year-over-year in the next earnings report.
Why it matters: Higher cash from operations supports growth plans. It shows financial health.
Supportive ifCash from operations reported above $150M in Q2.
Worry ifCash from operations reported below $150M in Q2.
Why it matters: Positive free cash flow means the company is making money and controlling costs.
Supportive ifFree cash flow for Q2 stays above $100 million.
Worry ifFree cash flow for Q2 drops below $100 million.
Why it matters: Improving revenue growth in the sector can boost HGV's performance and outlook.
Watch forConsumer sector revenue growth exceeds 4% in the next quarter.
Also watch forConsumer sector revenue growth falls below 2% in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Contract sales growth is crucial for revenue. Exceeding this number shows strong demand.
Supportive ifQ3 contract sales are above $810 million.
Worry ifQ3 contract sales are below $810 million.
Why it matters: Ongoing share buybacks show management's trust in the company's value.
Supportive ifCompany announces share buybacks of at least $150 million in Q3.
Worry ifNo share repurchases announced in Q3.