Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryTravel LodgingSnapshot 2026-11-04
$43.60-0.37%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryTravel LodgingSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HGV
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -65.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -4.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 61.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 5 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
HGV — officer change
Dated 2026-10-29
Executive Vice President and Chief Sales & Marketing Officer — Dustin Tonkin: The departure of a senior C-suite officer (Chief Sales & Marketing Officer) is a significant management change, but the structured separation with a transition period and standard severance suggests an orderly exit rather than a sudden negative shock.
Why it matters: Q3 contract sales fell 11% from a year ago. A rebound would show that new sales steps are gaining traction.
Supportive ifQ4 contract sales top $807 million. Management reports that more sales are converting.
Worry ifQ4 contract sales stay at or below $807 million, or management reports no gain in conversion.
Why it matters: A new loan-loss method cut the allowance by $55 million and raised reported VOI sales. Further changes could affect results.
Watch forHGV reports stable or lower loan-loss provisions under the new method, with no new large allowance cut.
Also watch forHGV reports a large allowance rise or loan-loss provision increase under the new method.
Why it matters: More tours did not stop contract sales from falling. A higher sale per tour would show better results from each visitor.
Supportive ifQ4 VPG is higher than Q3's level, which was down 12.5% year over year.
Worry ifQ4 VPG falls further year over year, while tour flow stays flat or grows.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$171 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $390 loss on $10,000 · 3.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,774 loss on $10,000 · 37.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.