Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Hecla Mining (HL)
NYSEMaterialsOther Precious MetalsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$14.45-3.34%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsOther Precious MetalsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.02 → 0.94 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for HL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Free cash flow from continuing operations | Free cash flow reached a record $144 million in Q1 2026. | Intact | free cash flow falls below 100 million USD next quarter | Free cash flow: $135.777M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=144 million USD. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Aug 4, 2026135,777,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
HL is a high-risk, sector-supported mining business with recent strong financial performance, but it is still loss-making and management execution has been volatile. The long-term thesis is intact, though confidence has eased from high to medium as company momentum weakened.
HL is valued at a premium to peers, and the evidence labels expectations as stretched, with an expectations gap of 0.21. This suggests the market already reflects meaningful optimism, although the evidence does not detail exactly which operating outcomes investors assume.
Near term, strong free cash flow and a debt-free balance sheet support the business, while the sector backdrop is a tailwind. Growth projects are advancing, but progress is mixed, and the company has a run of earnings misses that includes its latest quarter; the stated miss probability is low. The recent momentum decline and negative September event notices add uncertainty, but their underlying details are limited.
The next guidance update is a key swing factor: a cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued delivery would support the thesis. Over the near term, results and guidance from sector bellwethers SBSW, SSMR, and MUX may signal whether the Materials sector tailwind persists. Over the multi-year view, the thesis also depends on sustaining cash generation and advancing exploration and growth projects.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, HL’s debt reduction and strong cash flow are meaningful supports, but earnings misses, volatile execution, high risk, and stretched valuation make the thesis sensitive to guidance and sector conditions. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We generated record free cash flow of $151 million, led by Greens Creek's record $147 million.” “Our free cash flow generation and debt-free balance sheet provide us with the strongest financial position in our history, with nearly $700 million in cash and total liquidity of approximately $1.2 billion.”
Operating income | Operating income improved to $223 million in Q1 2026. | Intact | operating income falls below 150 million USD next quarter | Operating income: $157.154M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=223 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 4, 2026157,154,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Consolidated silver cash cost and AISC guidance improved to ($4.75)-($4.25)/oz and $11.50-$12.50/oz respectively, 2,3 on outperformance during the first nine months of the year, reduced sustaining capital investment guidance, and higher by-product credits.” “Capital investment is expected to increase in the fourth quarter, as projects across the portfolio advance, including the planned completion of the dry stack tailings facility expansion at Keno Hill.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Revenue growth | A primary condition in Hecla Mining's published investment case. The stated target is >=7% YoY growth. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 7% next year | Revenue growth: -3.59% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=7% YoY growth. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Nov 4, 2026-3.594747 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.20 → $0.94 · observed estimates
$1.57B → $1.49B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.20 | $1,566,902,100 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.20 | $1,566,902,100 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.16 | $1,731,000,000 | 8 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.17 | $1,510,914,560 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.16 | $1,731,000,000 | 8 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.19 | $1,731,000,000 | 7 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.19 | $1,731,000,000 | 7 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.19 | $1,731,000,000 | 7 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.17 | $1,510,914,568 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.19 | $1,731,000,000 | 7 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.17 | $1,510,914,560 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.19 | $1,731,000,000 | 7 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.19 | $1,731,000,000 | 7 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.19 | $1,731,000,000 | 7 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.07 | $1,535,312,460 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.06 | $1,726,725,000 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.06 | $1,726,725,000 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.06 | $1,726,725,000 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.06 | $1,726,725,000 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.07 | $1,535,312,460 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.07 | $1,535,312,460 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.07 | $1,535,312,460 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.07 | $1,535,312,460 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.07 | $1,535,312,460 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.07 | $1,535,312,460 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.07 | $1,535,312,460 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.06 | $1,489,230,120 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.06 | $1,489,230,120 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.04 | $1,523,858,433 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.04 | $1,523,858,433 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.04 | $1,523,858,433 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.04 | $1,523,858,433 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.04 | $1,523,858,433 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.04 | $1,523,858,433 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.04 | $1,523,858,433 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.04 | $1,523,858,433 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.04 | $1,523,858,433 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.04 | $1,523,858,433 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.04 | $1,523,858,433 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.04 | $1,523,858,433 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.04 | $1,523,858,433 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.04 | $1,523,858,433 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.04 | $1,523,858,433 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.04 | $1,523,858,433 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.04 | $1,523,858,433 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.04 | $1,523,858,433 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.04 | $1,523,858,435 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.04 | $1,523,858,435 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.04 | $1,523,858,435 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.04 | $1,523,858,435 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.04 | $1,523,858,435 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.04 | $1,523,858,435 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.04 | $1,523,858,433 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.04 | $1,523,858,433 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.03 | $1,480,691,767 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.03 | $1,480,691,767 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.03 | $1,480,691,767 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.03 | $1,480,691,767 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.03 | $1,480,691,767 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.03 | $1,480,691,767 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.03 | $1,480,691,767 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.03 | $1,480,691,767 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.03 | $1,480,691,767 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.03 | $1,480,691,767 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.03 | $1,480,691,767 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.03 | $1,480,691,767 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.02 | $1,480,691,767 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.02 | $1,480,691,767 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.02 | $1,480,691,767 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.02 | $1,480,691,767 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.02 | $1,480,691,767 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.02 | $1,480,691,767 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.02 | $1,480,691,767 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.02 | $1,480,691,767 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.02 | $1,480,691,767 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.02 | $1,480,691,767 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.02 | $1,480,691,767 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.02 | $1,483,191,767 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.02 | $1,483,191,767 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.02 | $1,483,191,767 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.02 | $1,483,191,767 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.03 | $1,483,191,767 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.03 | $1,483,191,767 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.03 | $1,483,191,767 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.03 | $1,483,191,767 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.95 | $1,483,191,767 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.95 | $1,483,191,767 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.95 | $1,483,191,767 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.95 | $1,483,191,767 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.95 | $1,483,191,767 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.95 | $1,483,191,767 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.95 | $1,489,691,433 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.95 | $1,489,691,433 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.95 | $1,489,691,433 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.95 | $1,489,691,433 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.95 | $1,489,691,433 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.95 | $1,489,691,433 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.95 | $1,489,691,433 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.95 | $1,489,691,433 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.95 | $1,489,691,433 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.95 | $1,489,691,433 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.95 | $1,489,691,433 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.94 | $1,489,691,433 | 3 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.