Hecla Mining (HL)
NYSEMaterialsOther Precious MetalsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$20.68-2.50%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsOther Precious MetalsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 68.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the US dollar and the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| -9.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 77.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 2 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
HL — earnings in line
Dated 2026-08-04
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 4, 2026, Hecla Mining Company (the “Company”) issued a news release announcing the Company’s second quarter 2026 operating and financial results. The news release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K. In accordance with General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amend…
Why it matters: More spending on exploration shows a focus on growth and new discoveries.
Supportive ifExploration spending in 2026 is $55 million or more.
Worry ifExploration spending in 2026 is less than $55 million.
Why it matters: Higher operating income means the company earns more money. This aligns with management's goal to be efficient.
Supportive ifOperating income exceeds $250M in Q2 2026.
Worry ifOperating income falls below $200M in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Progress at Keno Hill is key for Hecla's growth strategy and could enhance overall production.
Watch forLook for news about higher production rates or project success at Keno Hill.
Also watch forWatch for delays or problems with Keno Hill project timelines or production goals.
Why it matters: Completion affects how well Lucky Friday works and how much it produces.
Supportive ifManagement says the surface cooling project will be done by September 2026.
Worry ifCompletion of the surface cooling project is delayed beyond September 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$269 on $10,000 · ±2.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $657 loss on $10,000 · 6.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,582 loss on $10,000 · 55.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Keno Hill's production is key for total silver output. It also affects how much money the company makes.
Watch forSilver production at Keno Hill increases from 0.5 million ounces in Q1 2026.
Also watch forSilver production at Keno Hill declines or remains flat.
Why it matters: Going over this threshold shows strong performance and good cash flow.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations in Q2 2026 exceeds $200 million.
Worry ifCash flow from operations in Q2 2026 falls below $183 million.
Why it matters: Metal price changes affect revenue and profits. This impacts the company's financial health.
Watch forAverage silver price exceeds $84.39 per ounce in Q2 2026.
Also watch forAverage silver price falls below $54.83 per ounce in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Changes in silver prices affect cash costs and profits. This influences how investors feel.
Worry ifAverage silver prices stay above $73 per ounce for two months.
Less concerning ifAverage silver prices drop below $63 per ounce for two months.
Why it matters: Sustaining high free cash flow supports the company's growth plans and balance sheet strength.
Supportive ifFree cash flow from continuing operations exceeds $130 million in Q3.
Worry ifFree cash flow from continuing operations falls below $130 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Finishing this project may help production at Lucky Friday. It could increase output.
Supportive ifThe Lucky Friday surface cooling project will be done by September 2026.
Worry ifThe Lucky Friday surface cooling project is delayed past September 2026.
Why it matters: Cash flow from operations is key for funding growth and maintaining a strong balance sheet.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations exceeds $175 million in Q3.
Worry ifCash flow from operations falls below $150 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Silver prices affect revenue and profits, which can change how investors feel.
Worry ifAverage silver price rises above $80 per ounce.
Less concerning ifAverage silver price falls below $70 per ounce.
Why it matters: Hecla is growing its revenue. This shows it is managing sales challenges well.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 revenue increases year over year, surpassing $411 million.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue is down from last year. It stays below $411 million.
Why it matters: Changes in silver production guidance may show problems or improvements. This can affect investor trust.
Watch forManagement raises silver production guidance for Q3. It is now over 16.1 million ounces.
Also watch forManagement lowers silver production guidance for Q3. It is now under 15.1 million ounces.
Why it matters: A big drop in cash may show financial trouble or more spending without gains.
Worry ifCash position remains above $400 million at the end of Q3.
Less concerning ifCash position drops below $400 million at the end of Q3.
Why it matters: This report will give insights into how the company is performing.
Watch forEarnings report shows improved results compared to Q1 2026.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows more drops in revenue or production.
Why it matters: If the materials sector grows, it may help Hecla Mining do better.
Supportive ifMaterials sector revenue growth turns positive after being negative for a year.
Worry ifMaterials sector revenue growth is still negative. This shows it is still getting smaller.
Why it matters: Better cash flow shows management is focused on improving operations. This is their top goal.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations increases by more than 10% compared to the previous quarter.
Worry ifCash flow from operations decreases or stays flat compared to the previous quarter.