Houlihan Lokey (HLI)
NYSEFinancialsInvestment - Banking & Investment ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$137.11+0.18%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInvestment - Banking & Investment ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Profit margin near current 18.4 PE level: PE 20.0x vs target ~18.4x; Net margin 15.3% vs prior 17.0%.
Houlihan Lokey has strong profit margins near 18.4 PE. Analysts expect 15% revenue growth next year. The company has stable management and solid cash flow yield of 7%.
Revenue and operating income fell last quarter. Management's growth efforts show limited progress. A weak market could hurt deal activity and profits.
The price is about 10% above our fair value near $128. Analysts expect 15% revenue growth, which we see as justified but with risks.
Breaks if: Unexpected major management or board departures
Breaks if: Operating income falls below $110M per quarter
Breaks if: PE falls below 15 or profit margin drops significantly
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a moderate risk profile with elements of a turnaround. The current thesis state indicates a watchful approach due to mixed financial performance and reliance on sector trends.
The market appears to be pricing in a justified valuation, reflecting some fragility in execution quality. HLI is considered expensive compared to peers, with a slight expectations gap suggesting that the market is not overly optimistic.
Management has prioritized revenue growth, but recent results show mixed delivery, with some revenue declines. Cost management efforts are behind expectations, although capital returns to shareholders are on track.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like IBKR, BNY, and BK. Positive earnings from these companies could support HLI, while any negative guidance could lead to further challenges.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The company leads by volume in M&A, supporting revenue growth. However, it reported sales below analyst estimates, indicating revenue growth challenges.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 10% in FY27
In the next 1-3 years, HLI's performance will depend on both its internal execution and external sector conditions. Not investment advice.