Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
Houlihan Lokey (HLI)
NYSEFinancialsInvestment - Banking & Investment ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$147.22-4.44%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInvestment - Banking & Investment ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
8.67 → 8.70 EPS · FY ending Mar 31, 2028 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for HLI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Stable management and board | The company has stable management and solid cash flow yield of 7%. | Intact | Unexpected major management or board departures | No unexpected departures vs no major unexpected leadership changes Director Todd Carter resigned (not due to disagreement); Gillian Zucker not standing for reelection; Thomas Reichert elected. All routine. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
HLI is a financial-services business with a mixed, execution-dependent long-term thesis rather than a clear durable-growth story. The latest signal turned mildly favorable, but recent performance remains below its industry cohort and the thesis is still in a watch state.
HLI is valued at a premium to peers, while the expectations gap is small and the valuation evidence is broadly aligned with the current setup. The priced-in assessment finds low fragility, so the valuation does not appear to reflect a wider stack of business and market risks.
Near term, the latest earnings beat lifted company momentum and the composite insight, following a July miss. Revenue increased in the reported comparison, but segment progress was mixed; the compensation ratio stayed steady while non-compensation expenses rose. Recent misses and declining earnings surprises remain a risk, even though the current estimated miss risk is low.
The multi-year view hinges on broadening revenue progress across segments while keeping costs disciplined. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, and rate cuts could weigh on HLI and other financial companies. Continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers such as IBKR, BNY, and BK would support sector momentum.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, HLI’s thesis is improving but remains uncertain: capital returns and a recent earnings beat are positives, while mixed execution, fragile earnings quality, and a peer valuation premium are constraints. The key test is whether revenue progress becomes broad-based without further cost pressure. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Houlihan Lokey's published investment case. The stated target is >= $125M per quarter. |
| Broken |
| Operating income falls below $110M per quarter |
Operating income: $154M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $125M per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 30, 2026154,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Profit margin near current 18.4 PE level | Houlihan Lokey has strong profit margins near 18.4 PE. | Under Pressure | PE falls below 15 or profit margin drops significantly | P/E (TTM): 21.75x As of 2026-11-05; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 5, 202621.7459 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth of at least 15% next year | Analysts expect 15% revenue growth next year. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 10% in FY27 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$9.39 → $8.70 · observed estimates
$3.28B → $3.13B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $9.39 | $3,282,608,456 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $9.39 | $3,282,608,456 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $9.42 | $3,299,160,890 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $9.39 | $3,282,608,456 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $9.39 | $3,282,608,456 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $9.39 | $3,282,608,456 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $9.39 | $3,282,608,456 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $8.83 | $3,137,716,270 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-01 | $8.80 | $3,133,199,530 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $8.83 | $3,137,716,270 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-03 | $8.83 | $3,137,716,270 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-04 | $8.83 | $3,137,716,270 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-05 | $8.83 | $3,137,716,270 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-06 | $8.83 | $3,137,716,270 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-07 | $8.80 | $3,133,200,780 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $8.83 | $3,137,716,270 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-09 | $8.83 | $3,137,716,270 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-10 | $8.80 | $3,133,200,780 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $8.80 | $3,133,183,540 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-13 | $8.80 | $3,133,200,780 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $8.80 | $3,133,200,780 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $8.80 | $3,133,200,780 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $8.80 | $3,133,200,780 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $8.80 | $3,133,200,780 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $8.80 | $3,133,200,780 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $8.80 | $3,133,200,780 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $8.77 | $3,133,228,539 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $8.69 | $3,122,514,252 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $8.69 | $3,122,514,252 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-23 | $8.69 | $3,122,514,252 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-24 | $8.69 | $3,122,514,252 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-25 | $8.69 | $3,122,514,252 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | $8.69 | $3,122,514,252 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $8.69 | $3,122,514,252 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $8.69 | $3,122,514,252 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $8.69 | $3,122,514,252 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $8.69 | $3,122,514,252 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $8.69 | $3,122,514,252 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $8.69 | $3,122,514,252 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $8.69 | $3,122,514,252 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $8.69 | $3,122,514,252 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | $8.69 | $3,122,514,252 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $8.69 | $3,122,514,252 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $8.69 | $3,122,514,252 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $8.69 | $3,122,514,252 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $8.69 | $3,122,514,252 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $8.69 | $3,122,514,252 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $8.69 | $3,122,514,252 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $8.69 | $3,122,514,252 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $8.69 | $3,122,514,252 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $8.69 | $3,122,514,252 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $8.69 | $3,122,514,252 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $8.69 | $3,122,514,252 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $8.69 | $3,122,514,252 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $8.69 | $3,122,514,252 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $8.69 | $3,122,514,252 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $8.69 | $3,122,514,252 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $8.69 | $3,122,514,252 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $8.69 | $3,122,514,252 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $8.69 | $3,122,514,252 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $8.69 | $3,122,514,252 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $8.69 | $3,122,514,252 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $8.69 | $3,122,514,252 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $8.69 | $3,122,514,252 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $8.69 | $3,122,514,252 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $8.69 | $3,122,514,252 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $8.69 | $3,122,514,252 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $8.69 | $3,122,514,252 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $8.69 | $3,122,514,252 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $8.69 | $3,123,343,652 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $8.69 | $3,123,343,652 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $8.69 | $3,123,343,652 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $8.67 | $3,123,343,652 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $8.67 | $3,111,223,652 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $8.78 | $3,132,602,302 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $8.72 | $3,117,125,375 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $8.66 | $3,098,883,907 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $8.66 | $3,098,883,907 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $8.66 | $3,102,323,907 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $8.66 | $3,102,323,907 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $8.62 | $3,102,303,907 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $8.62 | $3,102,657,907 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $8.62 | $3,102,657,907 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $8.62 | $3,098,393,467 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $8.62 | $3,098,393,467 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $8.62 | $3,098,393,467 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $8.62 | $3,098,393,467 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $8.62 | $3,098,393,467 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $8.62 | $3,098,393,467 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $8.62 | $3,098,393,467 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $8.62 | $3,098,393,467 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $8.62 | $3,098,393,467 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $8.62 | $3,098,393,467 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $8.62 | $3,098,393,467 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $8.62 | $3,098,393,467 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $8.62 | $3,098,393,467 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $8.64 | $3,104,682,474 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $8.65 | $3,106,804,433 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $8.70 | $3,129,294,433 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $8.70 | $3,127,728,183 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $8.70 | $3,127,728,183 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $8.70 | $3,127,694,433 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $8.70 | $3,127,694,433 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-11-05 | $8.70 | $3,127,694,433 | 6 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 4 recorded
0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.