Houlihan Lokey (HLI)
NYSEFinancialsInvestment - Banking & Investment ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$137.11+0.18%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInvestment - Banking & Investment ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HLI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 13.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 14.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 1.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 4 industry peers
HLI — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-30
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the information contained in Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished to the Securities and Exchange Commission pursuant to Item 2.02, and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, and shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the…
Why it matters: If pay costs go above this level, it may mean higher costs and less profit.
Worry ifCompensation costs were above $350 million.
Less concerning ifCompensation costs are still below $350 million.
Why it matters: A lower adjusted EPS would confirm that the earnings miss trend is continuing. This could impact investor confidence.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS for Q1 2027 comes in below $1.35.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EPS for Q1 2027 meets or exceeds $1.35.
Why it matters: Cash flow from operations is vital for funding growth. A drop below this level is concerning.
Worry ifCash flow from operations above $290 million shows strong financial health.
Less concerning ifCash flow from operations is below $290 million. This shows financial pressure.
Why it matters: A big drop in revenues shows problems in the Corporate Finance business. This may hurt investor trust.
Worry ifQ1 2027 revenues drop worse than $511 million, which is a 15% decline from $605 million in Q1 2026.
Less concerning ifQ1 2027 revenues stabilize or grow compared to $511 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$139 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $314 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,059 loss on $10,000 · 40.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Higher pay costs lower profits. This can hurt overall performance.
Worry ifPay costs are over 65% of revenues in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifPay costs stay at or below 65% of revenues in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A drop below this level shows profit may be getting worse. It may raise cost concerns.
Worry ifOperating income was less than $120 million.
Less concerning ifOperating income is still more than $120 million.
Why it matters: If Corporate Finance revenues stay the same or go up, it may mean management is right.
Supportive ifCorporate Finance revenues rise or stay above $303 million from one quarter to the next.
Worry ifCorporate Finance revenues keep going down from one quarter to the next.
Why it matters: If net income drops below this level, it shows the company has financial problems.
Worry ifNet income for Q1 2027 falls below $78 million.
Less concerning ifNet income for Q1 2027 meets or exceeds $78 million.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is crucial for long-term success. A decline could hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifIn Q2 2026, revenues are over $700 million. This indicates growth.
Less concerning ifIn Q2 2026, revenues are below $600 million. This shows a continued decline.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is key for Houlihan Lokey's future. A drop below this level signals trouble.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth above 5% year over year would show strong performance.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth is less than 5% compared to last year. This shows ongoing problems.
Why it matters: Tax rate changes can impact net income. A higher rate may reduce earnings expectations.
Watch forEffective tax rate drops below 25% in Q2 2026, supporting higher net income.
Also watch forThe effective tax rate goes above 30% in Q2 2026. This may pressure earnings.
Why it matters: An increase in dividends shows strong cash flow. It also shows a commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend announced for Q2 2027 is more than $0.70 per share.
Worry ifDividend announced for Q2 2027 stays at $0.70 per share or lower.
Why it matters: The results will show if Houlihan Lokey can recover from recent declines. Investors will look for signs of growth or continued weakness.
Watch forIn Q2 2026, revenues are over $700 million. This shows a recovery from Q1.
Also watch forIn Q2 2026, revenues are below $600 million. This shows ongoing challenges.
Why it matters: If it drops below this level, it shows trouble with efficiency and cash flow.
Worry ifCash flow from operations was below $200 million.
Less concerning ifCash flow from operations exceeds $200 million.
Why it matters: If operating income goes up, it shows management is handling challenges. This could make investors feel better.
Supportive ifOperating income for Q1 2027 goes up from $78 million.
Worry ifOperating income for Q1 2027 goes down from $78 million.
Why it matters: Changes in pay costs may show how well the company manages expenses during revenue drops.
Watch forCompensation costs drop further from $328 million in Q1 2027.
Also watch forCompensation costs are rising. This may show problems in managing expenses.
Why it matters: The financial sector's growth impacts Houlihan Lokey. A drop signals broader issues.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth reported above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: A big drop in Corporate Finance revenue shows problems in this area. It may mean issues with deal-making.
Worry ifCorporate Finance revenue declines worse than -25% year over year in Q1 2027.
Less concerning ifCorporate Finance revenue declines less than -25% year over year or grows.
Why it matters: An increase shows good cash flow and a promise to return money to shareholders. It shows management believes in future earnings.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a dividend increase above $0.70 per share for Q3 2027.
Worry ifNo increase in the dividend or a decrease in the dividend for Q3 2027.