Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Harley-Davidson (HOG)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-11-04
$32.58-5.81%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.93 → 2.01 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for HOG yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capital investments remain within $175M-$200M and measured buybacks continue | A supporting condition in Harley-Davidson's published investment case. The stated target is $175M-$200M capital investment, continued measured buybacks. | Intact | Capital spending exceeds $200M or buybacks stop in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
HOG is a demand-recovery and execution story, rather than a steady compounder. The thesis is on watch: the signal recently improved from mixed to mildly favorable, but recent financial performance remains weak relative to its industry cohort.
The valuation evidence points to a stretched setup, with HOG at a premium to peers and a modest expectations gap. The evidence attributes the fragility mainly to weak execution, not a broader stack of expensive valuation, weak results, and turbulent conditions.
Near term, retail demand and dealer inventory show progress: Q3 retail sales rose 5 percent, inventory fell 26 percent, and management raised full-year retail guidance. But shipments fell 8 percent, operating income declined 18 percent, and earnings surprises have been erratic and trending down; the recent earnings beat does not yet erase those concerns.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on whether retail growth continues while wholesale shipments stay aligned with demand, and whether better margins translate into stronger operating income. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; continued strength from sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop, while their misses or lower guidance could weaken it.
For the 1-to-3-year view, HOG has signs of demand recovery, but weak profitability and execution keep the thesis uncertain despite a recent signal improvement. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Harley maintains market share despite new electric motorcycle competition |
| Harley-Davidson grew North American motorcycle sales 14% in 2026-Q1. |
| Improving |
| Significant market share loss to electric motorcycle competitors |
Qualitative: Stable share via new entry-level models (X350T, Sprint 440); LiveWire spinoff isolates electric risk HOG launched X350T and Sprint 440 to capture new riders and spun off LiveWire, mitigating electric competition threats to core market share. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income margin recovers to at least 5% next year | A primary condition in Harley-Davidson's published investment case. The stated target is >=5% margin. | Improving | Operating margin stays below 5% in FY27 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “2026 Financial Outlook For the full year 2026, the Company is raising HDMC and HDFS financial guidance and now expects: • HDMC: ◦ Global Motorcycle Retail Sales of 135,500 to 139,000 units ◦ Global Motorcycle Wholesale Shipments of 135,500 to 139,000 units ◦ Operating income of $25 to $55 million • HDFS: ◦ Operating income of $60 to $70 million • HDI: ◦ Revised capital investment of $140 to $165 million LiveWire has withdrawn its guidance.” “We also made meaningful progress against our Back to the Bricks strategic initiatives, strengthening execution across the business and driving improved profitability.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Global retail motorcycle sales grow at least 5% YoY | Harley-Davidson grew North American motorcycle sales 14% in 2026-Q1. | Improving | Global retail motorcycle sales growth falls below 5% YoY next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “2026 Financial Outlook For the full year 2026, the Company is raising HDMC and HDFS financial guidance and now expects: • HDMC: ◦ Global Motorcycle Retail Sales of 135,500 to 139,000 units ◦ Global Motorcycle Wholesale Shipments of 135,500 to 139,000 units ◦ Operating income of $25 to $55 million • HDFS: ◦ Operating income of $60 to $70 million • HDI: ◦ Revised capital investment of $140 to $165 million LiveWire has withdrawn its guidance.” “We saw a 14% increase in retail performance in North America, which drove global retail sales growth of 8%, and achieved a 22% year-over-year reduction in global dealer inventories, as we continue to prioritize aligning wholesale with retail demand.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.97 → $2.01 · observed estimates
$4.02B → $4.03B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.97 | $4,018,185,283 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.97 | $4,018,185,283 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.93 | $3,920,501,510 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.95 | $3,915,883,540 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.97 | $4,023,991,951 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.97 | $4,023,991,951 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.96 | $3,915,883,540 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.96 | $3,915,883,540 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.91 | $4,017,295,014 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.96 | $3,915,883,540 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.91 | $4,017,295,014 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.91 | $4,017,295,014 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.96 | $3,913,601,720 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.96 | $3,913,601,720 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.91 | $4,017,295,014 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.96 | $3,913,601,720 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.96 | $3,913,601,720 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.91 | $4,017,295,014 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.96 | $3,913,601,720 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.96 | $3,913,601,720 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.91 | $4,017,295,014 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.91 | $4,017,295,014 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.91 | $4,017,295,014 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.91 | $4,017,295,014 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.91 | $4,017,295,014 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.91 | $4,017,295,014 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.91 | $4,034,847,954 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.91 | $4,034,847,954 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.91 | $4,034,847,954 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.91 | $4,034,847,954 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.91 | $4,034,847,954 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.91 | $4,034,729,577 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.91 | $4,034,729,577 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.91 | $4,034,729,577 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.91 | $4,034,729,577 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.91 | $4,034,729,577 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.91 | $4,034,729,577 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.91 | $4,034,729,577 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.91 | $4,034,729,577 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.91 | $4,034,729,577 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.94 | $4,014,742,987 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.94 | $4,014,742,987 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.94 | $4,014,742,987 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.94 | $4,014,742,987 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.94 | $4,014,742,987 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.94 | $4,014,742,987 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.94 | $4,015,317,006 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.94 | $4,015,317,006 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.94 | $4,015,317,006 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.94 | $4,015,317,006 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.94 | $4,015,317,006 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.94 | $4,015,317,006 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.94 | $4,015,317,006 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.94 | $4,015,317,006 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.94 | $4,015,317,006 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.94 | $4,015,317,006 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.94 | $4,015,317,006 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.94 | $4,015,317,006 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.94 | $4,015,317,006 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.94 | $4,015,317,006 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.94 | $4,015,317,006 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.94 | $4,015,317,006 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.94 | $4,017,250,339 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.94 | $4,017,250,339 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.94 | $4,017,250,339 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.94 | $4,017,250,339 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.94 | $4,017,250,339 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.94 | $4,017,250,339 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.94 | $4,017,250,339 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.94 | $4,017,250,339 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.94 | $4,017,250,339 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.93 | $4,023,082,506 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.93 | $4,023,082,506 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.93 | $4,023,082,506 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.94 | $4,024,379,746 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.94 | $4,024,379,746 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.94 | $4,024,379,746 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.94 | $4,024,379,746 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.94 | $4,024,379,746 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.94 | $4,024,379,746 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.94 | $4,024,379,746 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.94 | $4,024,379,746 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.94 | $4,024,379,746 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.94 | $4,024,379,746 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.94 | $4,024,379,746 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.94 | $4,024,379,746 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.94 | $4,024,379,746 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.94 | $4,024,379,746 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.93 | $4,025,465,460 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.93 | $4,025,465,460 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.93 | $4,025,465,460 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.93 | $4,025,465,460 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.93 | $4,025,465,460 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.93 | $4,025,465,460 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.93 | $4,025,465,460 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.95 | $4,027,706,249 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.95 | $4,027,706,249 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.99 | $4,037,944,823 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.99 | $4,024,607,680 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.99 | $4,024,607,680 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.99 | $4,024,607,680 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.01 | $4,030,120,525 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.01 | $4,030,120,525 | 11 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.